COMPUTER-BASED DIABETES MANAGEMENT
A computer-based method includes receiving, from a computer-based user interface, user-specified information about one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level, generating, with a computer-based processor, a plurality of estimated trajectories of the user's blood glucose level as influenced by the one or more events, receiving a set of data that represents actual blood glucose measurements for the user, and identifying, with the computer-based processor, which of the estimated trajectories represents a best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user. At least some of the actual blood glucose measurements occurred later in time than a start time of the one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level. A computer-based system is provided for implementing the method.
1 . A computer-based method comprising:
receiving, from a computer-based user interface, user-specified information about one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level;
generating, with a computer-based processor, a plurality of estimated trajectories of the user's blood glucose level as influenced by the one or more events;
receiving a set of data that represents actual blood glucose measurements for the user; and
identifying, with the computer-based processor, which of the estimated trajectories represents a best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user,
wherein at least some of the actual blood glucose measurements occurred later in time than a start time of the one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level.
2 . The computer-based method of claim 1 , wherein generating the plurality of estimated trajectories of the user's blood glucose level comprises:
generating a nominal trajectory of the user's blood glucose level using mid-point values in a range of values associated with each of a plurality of parameters; and
generating one or more other trajectories of the user's blood glucose level, at least one of which represents a better fit than the nominal trajectory to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements.
3 . The computer-based method of claim 2 , wherein identifying which of the estimated trajectories represents the best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user, comprises:
identifying which of the nominal trajectory or one or more other trajectories represents the best fit to the actual blood glucose measurements for the user.
4 . The computer-based method of claim 3 , wherein identifying which of the nominal trajectory or other trajectories represents the best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user comprises:
calculating, with the computer-based processor, an absolute difference between a value at a point in time as represented by each of the nominal trajectory and other trajectories and a corresponding value at the point in time as represented by the actual blood glucose measurements; and
considering the calculated differences in identifying the best fit.
5 . The computer-based method of claim 4 , wherein identifying which of the nominal trajectory or other trajectories represents the best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user comprises:
calculating, with the computer-based processor, a first derivative and/or a second derivative associated with each of the nominal trajectory and other trajectories; and
considering the calculated first derivatives and/or second derivatives in identifying the best fit.
6 . The computer-based method of claim 1 , wherein the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user is obtained using a continuous glucose monitor or a blood glucose meter.
7 . The computer-based method of claim 1 , wherein the user-specified information about the one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose describes:
the user's consumption of carbohydrates,
a discrete dose of insulin received by the user, or
a quantity of exercise completed by the user.
8 . The computer-based method of claim 7 , wherein a change in insulin basal rate for the user is represented by a sequence of discrete doses of insulin, wherein the sequence of discrete doses can be positive or negative depending on whether the change in insulin basal rate is an increase or decrease, respectively.
9 . The computer-based method of claim 7 , wherein, for each event, the user-specified information comprises:
a start time associated with the event, and
a quantity associated with the event, wherein the quantity associated with the event represents a quantity of the carbohydrates consumed, a quantity of insulin in the discrete dose received, or an amount of exercise that the user completed.
10 . The computer-based method of claim 9 , further comprising, for each event:
assigning, with the computer-based processor, a duration associated with the event, wherein the duration associated with the event represents an estimate of:
how long it will take for the carbohydrates that were consumed to be fully absorbed by the user,
how long it will take for the dose of insulin that was received to be fully absorbed by the user, or
how long it will take for the quantity of exercise completed by the user to fully affect the user's blood glucose level.
11 . The computer-based method of claim 1 , wherein generating the plurality of estimated trajectories of the user's blood glucose level over time comprises, for each event:
accessing, in a computer-based memory, one or more normalized curves, each having a shape that represents generically:
how a dimensionless unit of carbohydrates consumed is fractionally absorbed by a generic user as a function of percent of total carbohydrate absorption time,
how a dimensionless unit of insulin is fractionally absorbed by the generic user as a function of percent of total insulin absorption time, or
how a dimensionless quantity of exercise fractionally takes effect on the generic user as a function of percent of total time for the exercise to take full effect on the user; and
generating a nominal trajectory of the user's blood glucose level by parameterizing one or more of the generic, normalized curves with the user-specified information about the one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level; and
applying an optimization search to create one or more other trajectories, wherein the optimization search iterates until it converges on a solution that is deemed optimal.
12 . The computer-based method of claim 11 , wherein each event candidate curve is based on a different set of the parameters relative to the other event candidate curves,
wherein a set of the parameters associated with each event candidate curve includes a start time, a duration, and a quantity.
13 . The computer-based method of claim 11 , wherein the set of parameters associated with each respective one of the events comprises:
a start time associated with that event,
a quantity associated with that event, wherein the quantity represents an amount of carbohydrates consumed, an amount of insulin by the user in a discrete dose, or an amount of exercise accomplished by the user, and
a duration associated with that event, wherein the duration represents a total absorption time for the carbohydrates ingested, a total absorption time for the dose of insulin received, or a total amount of time that the exercise accomplished will affect the user's blood glucose level.
14 . The computer-based method of claim 11 , wherein values for the parameters of each event candidate curve for the event are selected from specified ranges of values around values received with the user-specified information about the event.
15 . The computer-based method of claim 11 , wherein each of the event candidate curves represents an example of:
how the quantity of carbohydrates consumed might be absorbed by the user over time,
how the quantity of the insulin dose received might be absorbed by the user over time, or
how the exercise completed by the user might affect the user's blood glucose level over time.
16 . The computer-based method of claim 11 , wherein generating the plurality of estimated trajectories of the user's blood glucose level as influenced by the one or more events comprises:
combining effects of the event candidate curves associated with more than one of the events to produce each of the plurality of estimated trajectories.
17 . The computer-based method of claim 1 , further comprising:
displaying, at a computer-based visual display, a visual representation of the estimated trajectory that represents the best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user.
18 . The computer-based method of claim 17 , wherein the visual representation is a curve that represents estimated future blood glucose levels for the user.
19 . The computer-based method of claim 17 , further comprising:
displaying, at the computer-based visual display, a visual representation of upper and lower boundaries of the estimated future blood glucose levels for the user,
wherein the visual representation of the upper and lower boundaries are superimposed over the visual representation of the estimated trajectory that represents the best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user.
20 . The computer-based method of claim 19 , wherein the upper and lower boundaries are determined by perturbing the estimated trajectory that represents the best fit with upper and lower values in corresponding ranges associated with parameters for the one or more events.