THERMOSTAT WITH OCCUPANCY MODELING

1 . A thermostat for controlling HVAC equipment of a building based on occupancy of the building, the thermostat comprising:

an occupancy sensor configured to detect a presence of an occupant; and

a processing circuit configured to:

receive occupancy data for one or more points in time from an occupancy sensor, the occupancy data indicating the presence of an occupant at the one or more points in time; and

train an occupancy model based on the occupancy data, wherein the occupancy model predicts a probability of the presence of the occupant.

2 . The thermostat of claim 1 , wherein the occupancy model is a non-causal model that determines the presence of the occupant at a first point in time based on occupancy data for at least one second point in time before the first point in time and at least one third point in time after the first point in time.

3 . The thermostat of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to train the occupancy model based on a rolling average of the received occupancy data.

4 . The thermostat of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to extend or shorten the home-to-away timeout based on the probability of occupancy determined by the occupancy model, wherein the home-to-away timeout indicates a length of time with no occupancy detected by the occupancy sensor that the thermostat should switch from a home operating mode to an away operating mode.

5 . The thermostat of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:

determine whether the occupancy data of the occupancy sensor indicates the presence of the occupant during a first interval of time;

determine a value of a first probability as one for the first interval of time in response to the occupancy sensor detecting the presence of the occupant; and

determine a value of a second probability as non-one for the first interval of time in response to the occupancy sensor detecting no presence of the occupant.

6 . The thermostat of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:

operate the building equipment based on the occupancy model, wherein operating the building equipment based on the occupancy model comprises:

setting an operating mode to home in response to determining, via the occupancy sensor, the presence of the occupant;

setting an operating mode to away in response to determining, via the occupancy sensor, no presence of the occupant for a period of time and the mode being home, wherein the period of time is a home-to-away timeout;

updating the home-to away timeout based on the probability of the presence of the occupant determined by the occupancy model;

operating the building equipment in response to the processing circuit indicating a home mode; and

not operating the building equipment in response to the processing circuit indicating an away mode.

7 . A method, comprising:

receiving occupancy data for one or more points in time from an occupancy sensor, the occupancy data indicating a presence of one or more occupants at the one or more points in time in a building space; and

updating an occupancy model based on the occupancy data, wherein the occupancy model predicts a probability of the presence of the one or more occupants.

8 . The method of claim 7 , wherein the occupancy model is a non-causal model that determines the presence of the occupant at a first point in time based on occupancy data for at least one second point in time before the first point in time and at least one third point in time after the first point in time.

9 . The method of claim 7 , wherein updating an occupancy model based on the occupancy date further comprises training the occupancy model based on a rolling average of the received occupancy data.

10 . The method of claim 7 , further comprising:

extending or shortening a home-to-away timeout based on the probability of occupancy determined by the occupancy model, wherein the home-to-away timeout indicates the length of time with no occupancy detected by the occupancy sensor that the thermostat should switch from a home operating mode to an away operating mode.

11 . The method of claim 7 , further comprising:

determining whether the occupancy data of the occupancy sensor indicates the presence of the occupant during a first interval of time;

determine a value of a first probability as one for the first interval of time in response to the occupancy sensor detecting the presence of the occupant; and

determine a value of a second probability as non-one for the first interval of time in response to the occupancy sensor detecting no presence of the occupant.

12 . The method of claim 7 , further comprising:

operating the building equipment based on the occupancy model.

13 . The method of claim 12 , wherein operating the building equipment based on the occupancy model further comprises:

switching to a home operating mode in response to determining, via the occupancy sensor, the presence of the occupant;

switching to an away operating mode from the home operating mode in response to determining, via the occupancy sensor, no presence of the occupant for a period of time, wherein the period of time is a home-to-away timeout;

updating the home-to away timeout based on the probability of the presence of the occupant determined by the occupancy model;

operating the building equipment in response to the processing circuit indicating a home mode; and

not operating the building equipment in response to the processing circuit indicating an away mode.

14 . A thermostat for controlling HVAC equipment of a building based on occupancy of the building, the thermostat comprising:

an occupancy sensor configured to detect an occupant in a building space; and

a processing circuit configured to:

receive data from the occupancy sensor indicating whether the occupant is at presence in the building space over a plurality of time bins; and

train an occupancy model based on the data by subsequently determining a probability of presence of the occupant at a first one of the plurality of time bins based on whether the occupant has been at presence in the building space over at least one of the plurality of time bins, which is prior to the first one of the plurality of time bins, and over at least one of the plurality of time bins, which is subsequent to the first one of the plurality of time bins, and predicting a probability of presence of the occupant at the first one of the plurality of time bins in a future using the determined probability of presence of the occupant.

15 . The thermostat of claim 14 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to train the occupancy model based on a rolling average of the received data.

16 . The thermostat of claim 14 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to assign the probability of presence of the occupant as a non-one value, responsive to the occupancy sensor detecting no presence of the occupant in the building space at the first one of the plurality of time bins.

17 . The thermostat of claim 16 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to assign the non-one value according to a predefined table in which the non-one value is determined according to whether the occupant has been at presence in the building space over the at least one of the plurality of time bins, prior to the first one of the plurality of time bins, and over the at least one of the plurality of time bins, subsequent to the first one of the plurality of time bins.

18 . The thermostat of claim 14 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to extend or shorten a home-to-away timeout based on the probability of occupancy determined by the occupancy model, wherein the home-to-away timeout indicates a length of time with no occupancy detected by the occupancy sensor that the thermostat should switch from a home operating mode to an away operating mode.

19 . The thermostat of claim 14 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to operate the building equipment based on the occupancy model.

20 . The thermostat of claim 19 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:

switch the building equipment to a home operating mode in response to determining, via the occupancy sensor, the presence of the occupant;

switch the building equipment to an away operating mode from the home operating mode in response to determining, via the occupancy sensor, no presence of the occupant for a period of time, wherein the period of time is a home-to-away timeout;

update the home-to away timeout based on the probability of the presence of the occupant determined by the occupancy model;

operate the building equipment in response to the processing circuit indicating a home mode; and

not operate the building equipment in response to the processing circuit indicating an away mode.