METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR CHARACTERIZING THE KEY PROPERTIES AND ANALYZING THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF AN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
Prognostic and diagnostic information is determined about an investment portfolio through perturbing the investment portfolio with allocations to other sectors and reviewing the performance of the perturbed investment portfolios using historical data, and combining that with other factors. Relationships between one's investment portfolio and other assets, rights or liabilities can be identified by creating several modified portfolios each of which comprise a mix of the original investment portfolio and one or more of the other assets, rights or liabilities. The performance of these modified portfolios, as compared to the original portfolio over a historical period, indicates the correlation (or lack thereof) between these other assets, rights or liabilities and one's investment portfolio. By identifying these correlations, one can then take any desired action to modify one's portfolio to obtain the desired results.
1 . A computer implemented method for analyzing a portfolio comprising:
creating with a computer a plurality (N) of modified portfolios, each of which includes a predetermined percentage (x) of one of a plurality of user specifiable analytic elements and a remaining percentage (100−x) composed of the portfolio being analyzed;
determining with a computer a historical probability (H i ) that a given number (i) of the plurality of modified portfolios outperformed the portfolio being analyzed during a predetermined period for each possible number (i=0 through N), including zero, of the plurality of modified portfolios;
calculating a metric representing the portfolio being analyzed with a computer by calculating a weighted sum of the determined probabilities;
ranking with a computer the portfolio relative to a plurality of other portfolios based on the calculated metric; and
displaying the ranking via a graphical user interface.
2 . A computer readable media having a plurality of programming instructions that cause a processor to analyze a portfolio by:
creating a plurality (N) of modified portfolios, each of which includes a predetermined percentage (x) of one of a plurality of user specifiable analytic elements and a remaining percentage (100−x) composed of the portfolio being analyzed;
determining a historical probability (H i ) that a given number (i) of the plurality of modified portfolios outperformed the portfolio being analyzed during a predetermined period for each possible number (i=0 through N), including zero, of the plurality of modified portfolios;
calculating a metric representing the portfolio being analyzed with a computer by calculating a weighted sum of the determined probabilities; and
displaying the calculated metric via a graphical user interface.
3 . An apparatus for analyzing a portfolio comprising:
a computer to create a plurality (N) of modified portfolios, each of which includes a predetermined percentage (x) of one of a plurality of user specifiable analytic elements and a remaining percentage (100−x) composed of the portfolio being analyzed;
said computer to determine a historical probability (H i ) that a given number (i) of the plurality of modified portfolios outperformed the portfolio being analyzed during a predetermined period for each possible number (i=0 through N), including zero, of the plurality of modified portfolios;
said computer to calculate a metric representing the portfolio being analyzed by calculating a weighted sum of the determined probabilities;
said computer to rank the portfolio relative to a plurality of other portfolios based on the calculated metric; and
a graphical user interface coupled to the computer to display the ranking.