System and method for detecting and forecasting the emergence of technologies
View Patent ↗The system provided herein is a computer-implemented system that defines a social network using the linkages of technologies. According to one the teachings, the system looks for pandemic spread or integration of technology through this network to determine when an outbreak of a new technology is occurring.
1. A computer-implemented tool for use by technical workers to engineer and develop technological innovations more quickly and with heightened assurance that those technological innovations receive infusion of emerging new technologies, comprising:
a specially programmed computer that accesses a predefined data store containing information about published technical documents, the data store organizing the published documents according to a predetermined set of different technical areas and including information reflecting dates associated with the technical documents selected from a group consisting of publication date, issue date, application date and submission date,
the computer being programmed to detect the publication of documents newly emerging in a first technological area and to assess whether the emergence in that first technical area is undergoing exponential growth;
the computer being further programmed to associate the first technical area in which exponential growth is detected with a second technical area,
wherein the second technical area is identified by using the computer to access a non-transitory computer readable memory storing a network representation of linkages among a plurality of different technical areas, including the first and second technical areas, with each of the linkages being coded based on historical data to indicate the likelihood that information about one technical area will flow to another technical area,
the computer thereby providing information to a technical worker in the second technical area of the onset of the exponential growth in the first technical area, with assurance that the emerging technology in the first technical area is suitable for technologically improving the second technical area, based on the fact that connections between the first and second technical areas have occurred in the past.
2. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the published technical documents include published patent documents.
3. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the technical documents include documents selected from the group consisting of published patent applications and issued patents.
4. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the technical documents include published technical literature.
5. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the computer is programmed to detect whether the first technical area is undergoing exponential growth using epidemiological detection.
6. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the computer is programmed to detect whether the first technical area is undergoing exponential growth using epidemiological detection algorithm selected from the group consisting of CUSUM, EAR, Farrington algorithm and NBC.
7. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the computer is further programmed to apply a time window to detect publication of documents newly emerging within a predetermined time slice.
8. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the network representation of linkages is a social network of plural nodes each representing a different technical area.
9. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 1 wherein the network representation of linkages comprises an array of edges, each edge representing an occurrence of two unique technical areas being associated within a single technical document.
10. The computer-implemented tool according to claim 9 wherein the computer is further programmed to associate edge weights to the array of edges based on a count of the number of occurrences that the two unique technical areas are associated within each of the technical documents represented in the data store.