Logistics prediction system and prediction method

1. A logistics prediction system comprising:

an arithmetic device that executes a predetermined process;

a storage device connected to the arithmetic device;

a shipment information input section to which past shipment information is input;

a constraint input section to which a calculation resource and a calculation time period are input as constraints for prediction;

an integration prediction database holding shipment trends of products;

a prediction method selector that selects at least one prediction method to be used to predict a shipment volume from among a plurality of prediction methods for each of products to be forecasted so that the constraints input to the constraint input section are satisfied;

a plurality of prediction method sections that predict shipment volumes using the selected at least one prediction method;

an integrator that integrates the results of the prediction by the prediction method sections for each of the products to be forecasted; and

a shipment prediction output section that outputs the result of the integration by the integrator,

wherein the prediction method selector

determines whether a resource for executing calculation on all products to be forecasted using all the prediction methods within the calculation time period input as the constraint is sufficient for the calculation;

specifies that shipment volumes of all the products to be forecasted are to be calculated using all the prediction methods when the resource is sufficient for the calculation; and

specifies that shipment volumes of products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes are equal to or nearly equal to each other are to be calculated using a prediction method with a small calculation amount when the resource is deficient.

2. The logistics prediction system according to claim 1 , further comprising:

a contribution degree output section that outputs degrees of contribution of the prediction method sections.

3. The logistics prediction system according to claim 1 , wherein

the prediction method selector

determines whether a resource for executing calculation on products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes vary using all the prediction methods within the calculation time period input as the constraint is sufficient for the calculation;

specifies that shipment volumes of the products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes vary are to be calculated using all the prediction methods when the resource is sufficient for the calculation; and

specifies that the shipment volumes of the products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes vary are to be calculated using one or some of the selected at least one prediction method when the resource is deficient.

4. The logistics prediction system according to claim 1 , further comprising:

a product characteristic determiner that determines characteristics of shipment trends of the products to be forecasted.

5. A prediction method to be executed by a logistics prediction system including an arithmetic device that executes a predetermined process and a storage device connected to the arithmetic device, comprising:

causing the arithmetic device to execute a shipment information acquisition procedure for acquiring past shipment information;

causing the arithmetic device to execute a constraint acquisition procedure for acquiring a calculation resource and a calculation time period as constraints for prediction;

causing the arithmetic device to execute a prediction method selection procedure for selecting at least one prediction method to be used to predict a shipment volume from among a plurality of prediction methods for each of products to be forecasted so that the constraints input in the constraint acquisition procedure are satisfied;

causing the arithmetic device to execute a prediction procedure for predicting shipment volumes using the selected at least one prediction method;

causing the arithmetic device to execute an integration procedure for integrating the results of the prediction by the selected at least one prediction method for each of the products to be forecasted; and

causing the arithmetic device to execute a shipment prediction output procedure for outputting the result of the integration by the integration procedure,

wherein in the prediction method selection procedure,

the arithmetic device determines that a resource for executing calculation on all the products to be forecasted using all the prediction methods within the calculation time period input as the constraint is deficient for the calculation,

the arithmetic device specifies that shipment volumes of products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes are equal to or nearly equal to each other are to be calculated using a prediction method with a small calculation amount based on the determination.

6. The prediction method according to claim 5 , further comprising:

causing the arithmetic device to execute a contribution degree output procedure for outputting degrees of contribution of the selected at least one prediction method.

7. The prediction method according to claim 5 , wherein

in the prediction method selection procedure,

the arithmetic device determines whether a resource for executing calculation on products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes vary using all the prediction methods within the calculation time period input as the constraint is sufficient for the calculation,

the arithmetic device specifies that shipment volumes of the products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes vary are to be calculated using all the prediction methods when the resource is sufficient for the calculation, and

the arithmetic device specifies that shipment volumes of the products to be forecasted whose shipment trend indicates that shipment volumes vary are to be calculated using one or some of the selected at least one prediction method when the resource is deficient.