Operation/maintenance management method, program, and operation/maintenance management system

1. An operation/maintenance management method of an integrated system including a plurality of components or devices, the operation/maintenance management method comprising steps of:

selecting an index and a period for evaluating the integrated system;

acquiring prediction information representing a change over time in publicly available input information for use in computation of the index input from information including confidential information by each of a user who performs an operation of the integrated system and manufacturers of the components or the devices, the confidential information being held by each of the user and the manufacturers;

creating a future prediction scenario by combining the input information; and

computing an evaluation index related to the scenario.

2. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , further comprising steps of:

displaying the future prediction scenario; and

comparing and displaying evaluation index computation results related to a plurality of scenarios.

3. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein, in a step of acquiring prediction information representing the change over time in the input information, a part or all of the input information is able to be input by an input interface in a fill-in form.

4. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein, in a step of acquiring prediction information representing the change over time in the input information, information is simplified to details capable of being disclosed by a holder with respect to a part or all of the input information and is incorporated into the scenario.

5. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein, in a step of creating the future prediction scenario, prediction information of a change over time in certain input information is adjusted on the basis of prediction information of a change over time in other input information.

6. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein a part or all of the input information is corrected with reference to a current state of the integrated system as a starting value of prediction information of a change over time.

7. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein a part or all of the input information is corrected or diverted with reference to actual results of a previous change over time in the integrated system as prediction information of a change over time.

8. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein the input information includes maintenance plan information of the integrated system.

9. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein the input information includes operation plan information of the integrated system.

10. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein the input information includes prediction information of a change over time in performance of the integrated system.

11. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 , wherein the index is evaluated on the basis of a lost profit due to performance degradation of the integrated system and a cost required for improving performance of the integrated system.

12. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 11 , wherein a repair or maintenance plan is set on the basis of the lost profit due to the performance degradation of the integrated system and the cost required for improving the performance of the integrated system.

13. The operation/maintenance management method according to claim 1 ,

wherein the integrated system is a power generation facility, and

wherein the index is evaluated on the basis of a lost profit from a sum of a decreased profit due to a decrease in power generation efficiency, an increased cost due to an increase in power consumption in the facility, and an increased cost due to an increase in a failure occurrence rate and a sum of a cost required for a repair or component replacement and a cost caused by stopping an operation for maintenance.

14. A program for causing a computer of an operation/maintenance management system of an integrated system including a plurality of components or devices to function as:

a means for acquiring an index and a period for evaluating the integrated system;

a means for acquiring prediction information representing a change over time in publicly available input information for use in computation of the index input from information including confidential information by each of a user who performs an operation of the integrated system and manufacturers of the components or the devices, the confidential information being held by each of the user and the manufacturers;

a means for creating a future prediction scenario by combining the input information; and

a means for computing an evaluation index related to the scenario.

15. An operation/maintenance management system of an integrated system including a plurality of components or devices, the operation/maintenance management system comprising:

a setting information reception unit configured to acquire an index and a period for evaluating the integrated system;

a prediction information acquisition unit configured to acquire prediction information representing a change over time in publicly available input information for use in computation of the index input from information including confidential information by each of a user who performs an operation of the integrated system and manufacturers of the components or the devices, the confidential information being held by each of the user and the manufacturers;

a scenario computation unit configured to create a future prediction scenario by combining the input information; and

an evaluation index computation unit configured to compute an evaluation index related to the scenario.