Non-terrestrial network link adaptation

1. A method, comprising:

causing, by a base station, a first signal to be transmitted from a non-terrestrial station to user equipment during a first transmission time period;

receiving, by the base station, a communication indicating signal quality for a plurality of times during the first transmission time period;

obtaining, for the plurality of times, a plurality of fading losses associated with the first signal;

estimating, for a future time subsequent to the plurality of times, a shadow fading loss associated with the first signal by at least applying a first filter to the plurality of fading losses;

estimating, for the future time, a fast fading loss associated with the signal by at least determining differences between the plurality of fading losses and the shadow fading loss;

calculating signal-to-interference-plus-noise-ratio (SINR) that includes at least one fading loss selected from the shadow fading loss and the fast fading loss; and

causing the non-terrestrial station to transmit a second signal for a second transmission time period that includes the future time, the second signal having first settings for modulation and channel coding parameters, the first settings determined based on the SINR calculated.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein estimating the shadow fading loss includes applying a low pass filter to the plurality of fading losses for the plurality of times.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein estimating the fast fading loss includes applying a predictive filter to the differences determined between the plurality of fading losses and the shadow fading loss.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein estimating the fast fading loss includes applying a Kalman filter to fast fading losses for the plurality of times.

5. The method of claim 1 , comprising:

receiving communications indicating successful receipt of a defined number of second signal transmissions during the second transmission period; and

causing, as a result of receiving the communications indicating successful receipt of the defined number of second signal transmissions, the non-terrestrial station to transmit a third signal to the user equipment according to third modulation and channel coding parameters for a third transmission period.

6. The method of claim 1 , comprising:

receiving communications indicating successful receipt of a defined number of second signal transmissions during the second transmission period; and

causing, as a result of receiving the communications indicating unsuccessful receipt of the defined number of second signal transmissions, the non-terrestrial station to transmit a third signal to the user equipment according to previous modulation and channel coding parameters for a third transmission period.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the SINR is calculated based on the shadow fading loss estimated and a conservative value for the fast fading loss.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the SINR is calculated based on the shadow fading loss estimated and the fast fading loss estimated.

9. The method of claim 1 , comprising:

calculating a conservative SINR value based on location information of the user equipment, the conservative SINR value based on a conservative value for the shadow fading loss and a conservative value for the fast fading loss;

receiving one or more communications indicating unsuccessful receipt of the second signal; and

causing, in response to receiving the one or more communications indicating unsuccessful receipt of the second signal, the non-terrestrial station to transmit a third signal according to settings for modulation and channel coding parameters selected based on the conservative SINR value.

10. A method, comprising:

calculating, by a base station, a shadow fading loss associated with signal transmission from a non-terrestrial station to user equipment for a first transmission period;

determining first modulation and channel coding settings based on the shadow fading loss;

causing the non-terrestrial station to transmit a first signal to the user equipment according to the first modulation and channel coding settings during the first transmission period;

receiving communications indicating whether the first signal was successfully received by the user equipment;

determining a fast fading loss that is different than the shadow fading loss; and

causing, in response to receiving the communications, the non-terrestrial station to transmit a second signal according to second modulation and channel coding settings different than the first modulation and channel coding settings during a second transmission period.

11. The method of claim 10 , comprising:

receiving a communication indicating unsuccessful receipt of the second signal during the second transmission period; and

causing, in response to receiving the plurality of communications, the non-terrestrial station to transmit a third signal according to the first modulation and channel coding parameters during a third transmission period.

12. The method of claim 10 , wherein the shadow fading loss calculated based on at least one estimated fading loss value.

13. The method of claim 12 , wherein the at least one estimated fading loss value includes a shadow fading loss estimate obtained using a low pass filter.

14. The method of claim 10 , wherein the at least one estimated fading loss value includes a fast fading loss estimate obtained using a predictive filter.

15. The method of claim 10 , wherein the at least one estimated fading loss value is obtained by at least:

determining a set of fading losses for a plurality of times;

applying a low pass filter to the set of fading losses to obtain a first fading loss estimate;

calculating differences between the set of fading losses and the first fading loss estimate; and

applying a predictive filter to the differences to obtain a second fading loss estimate.

16. The method of claim 15 , wherein the shadow fading loss includes the first fading loss estimate and the second fading loss estimate.

17. A communication system, comprising:

a receiver configured to receive communications from terrestrial user equipment and communications from a non-terrestrial network station;

a transmitter configured to transmit communications to the non-terrestrial network station;

one or more processors; and

memory storing instructions that, as a result of execution by the one or more processors, cause the communication system to:

calculate a shadow fading loss associated with signal transmission from a non-terrestrial station to user equipment for a first transmission period;

determine first modulation and channel coding settings based on the shadow fading loss;

cause the non-terrestrial station to transmit a first signal to the user equipment according to the first modulation and channel coding settings during the first transmission period;

receive communications indicating whether the first signal was successfully received by the user equipment;

determine a fast fading loss that is different than the shadow fading loss; and

cause, in response to receiving the communications, the non-terrestrial station to transmit a second signal according to second modulation and channel coding settings different than the first modulation and channel coding settings during a second transmission period.

18. The system of claim 17 , wherein the memory stores instructions that further cause the communication system to:

implement enhanced modulation and channel coding settings as the second modulation and channel coding settings in response to receiving communications indicating that a number of successfully received first signal transmissions by the user equipment exceed a defined threshold.

19. The system of claim 17 , wherein the memory stores instructions that further cause the communication system to:

implement diminished modulation and channel coding settings as the second modulation and channel coding settings in response to receiving communications indicating that a number of unsuccessfully received first signal transmissions by the user equipment exceed a defined threshold.