Generating and conveying comprehensive weather insights at fields for optimal agricultural decision making
View Patent ↗In an embodiment, a computer-implemented method of generating and displaying a comprehensive depiction of a weather element comprises: based on archived forecast model and observed data, training a machine learning model; calibrating current forecast data by applying the machine learning model to yield a calibrated forecast probability density function; displaying graphical representation of recently observed data and calibrated forecast probability density.
1. A computer-implemented method providing improvements in agricultural science by optimizing precipitation forecasting practices, the method comprising:
receiving historic weather data associated with a field, the historic weather data relating to weather conditions at the field over a historic period of time;
generating and digitally storing, based on the historic weather data, a weather model for predicting weather conditions at the field;
receiving contemporary weather data for the field, the contemporary weather data corresponding to weather conditions at the field at a recent time;
modifying the weather model based on the contemporary weather data by generating, using the weather model, expected weather data for the field at the recent time;
determining an output difference between the expected weather data and the contemporary weather data;
adjusting the weather model to converge toward the contemporary weather data;
using the adjusted weather model, generating one or more weather forecasts;
causing displaying, on a digital display, the one or more weather forecasts.
2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 ,
the contemporary weather data for the field being received at a computer system attached to a field implement operating in the field;
the contemporary weather data being received automatically from one or more weather sensors attached to the field implement;
modifying the weather model occurring in real time at the computer system;
generating the one or more weather forecasts is performed automatically, in real-time.
3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising causing displaying, on the digital display, a graphical timeline, the graphical timeline comprising one or more historic weather indications corresponding to a portion of the historic weather data, one or more contemporary weather indication corresponding to the contemporary weather data and the one or more weather forecasts.
4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein:
the one or more weather forecasts each comprise a feature forecast, the feature forecast corresponding to one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring;
displaying the one or more weather forecasts comprises displaying the one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring.
5. The computer-implemented method of claim 4 , wherein:
displaying the one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring comprises displaying a bar graph for a feature forecast;
the bar graph comprises a timeline displaying one or more time periods during which a weather event may occur;
each bar of the bar graph corresponding to a time period of the one or more time periods;
each bar of the bar graph comprises one or more sections, each of the one or more sections corresponding to a relative probability that the weather event will occur at the time period.
6. The computer-implemented method of claim 5 , wherein:
the weather event is precipitation at the field;
the one or more time periods are periods of time during which precipitation may occur at the field;
each section of the one or more sections is displayed in a relative size and color corresponding to the relative probability of precipitation at the field occurring during a corresponding period of time.
7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein:
receiving contemporary weather data for the field comprises continuously receiving, without user input, contemporary weather data for the field at a first periodic time interval;
modifying the weather model comprises continuously modifying, without user input, the weather model with the continuously received contemporary weather data at a second periodic time interval.
8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:
receiving additional field data, the additional field data relating to additional weather forecasts at one or more secondary fields that are not the field;
causing displaying, on the digital display, the additional weather forecasts.
9. The computer-implemented method of claim 8 , wherein:
the additional weather forecasts each comprising a feature forecast, the feature forecast corresponding to one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring at the corresponding secondary field;
displaying the additional weather forecasts comprises displaying the additional weather forecasts in a sorted order, the sorted order based on a degree of probability of the weather event occurring at that secondary field.
10. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein modifying the weather model comprises:
predicting, using the weather model, a predicted contemporary forecast data for the field at a recent time;
determining a difference between the predicted contemporary forecast data and the contemporary weather data;
adjusting the weather model proportionally to the determined difference between the predicted contemporary forecast data and the contemporary weather data.
11. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing instructions which, when executed by one or more processors, cause:
receiving historic weather data associated with a field, the historic weather data relating to weather conditions at the field over a historic period of time;
generating and digitally storing, based on the historic weather data, a weather model for predicting weather conditions at the field;
receiving contemporary weather data for the field, the contemporary weather data corresponding to weather conditions at the field at a recent time;
modifying the weather model based on the contemporary weather data, by generating, using the weather model, expected weather data for the field at the recent time;
determining an output difference between the expected weather data and the contemporary weather data; adjusting the weather model to converge toward the contemporary weather data;
using the adjusted weather model, generating one or more weather forecasts; and
causing displaying, on a digital display, the one or more weather forecasts.
12. The computer-readable media of claim 11 , the contemporary weather data for the field being received at a computer system attached to a field implement operating in the field; the contemporary weather data being received automatically from one or more weather sensors attached to the field implement; modifying the weather model occurring in real time at the computer system; generating the one or more weather forecasts is performed automatically, in real-time.
13. The computer-readable media of claim 11 , further comprising instructions which, when executed by one or more processors, cause causing displaying, on the digital display, a graphical timeline, the graphical timeline comprising one or more historic weather indications corresponding to a portion of the historic weather data, one or more contemporary weather indication corresponding to the contemporary weather data and the one or more weather forecasts.
14. The computer-readable media of claim 11 , wherein:
the one or more weather forecasts each comprise a feature forecast, the feature forecast corresponding to one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring;
displaying the one or more weather forecasts comprises displaying the one or more.
15. The computer-readable media of claim 14 , wherein:
displaying the one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring comprises displaying a bar graph for a feature forecast;
the bar graph comprises a timeline displaying one or more time periods during which a weather event may occur;
each bar of the bar graph corresponding to a time period of the one or more time periods;
each bar of the bar graph comprises one or more sections, each of the one or more sections corresponding to a relative probability that the weather event will occur at the time period.
16. The computer-readable media of claim 15 , wherein:
the weather event is precipitation at the field;
the one or more time periods are periods of time during which precipitation may occur at the field;
each section of the one or more sections is displayed in a relative size and color corresponding to the relative probability of precipitation at the field occurring during a corresponding period of time.
17. The computer-readable media of claim 11 , wherein:
receiving contemporary weather data for the field comprises continuously receiving, without user input, contemporary weather data for the field at a first periodic time interval;
modifying the weather model comprises continuously modifying, without user input, the weather model with the continuously received contemporary weather data at a second periodic time interval.
18. The computer-readable media of claim 11 , further comprising instructions which, when executed by one or more processors, cause:
receiving additional field data, the additional field data relating to additional weather forecasts at one or more secondary fields that are not the field;
causing displaying, on the digital display, the additional weather forecasts.
19. The computer-readable media of claim 18 , wherein:
the additional weather forecasts each comprising a feature forecast, the feature forecast corresponding to one or more probabilities of a weather event occurring at the corresponding secondary field;
displaying the additional weather forecasts comprises displaying the additional weather forecasts in a sorted order, the sorted order based on a degree of probability of the weather event occurring at that secondary field.
20. The computer-readable media of claim 11 , wherein modifying the weather model comprises:
predicting, using the weather model, a predicted contemporary forecast data for the field at a recent time;
determining a difference between the predicted contemporary forecast data and the contemporary weather data;
adjusting the weather model proportionally to the determined difference between the predicted contemporary forecast data and the contemporary weather data.