Predicting advertisement impact for campaign selection

1. A method comprising:

constructing, by an influence system, an influence model for a campaign, comprising:

selecting a treatment group comprising a plurality of entities which been exposed to a advertising treatment of the campaign and;

selecting a control group comprising a plurality of entities, wherein the control group excludes entities of the treatment group and wherein the control group comprises entities which have not been exposed to the advertising treatment of the campaign;

selecting treatment group converters from the treatment group, each treatment group converter having met a conversion criterion the campaign after exposure to the campaign's advertising treatment;

selecting control group converters from the control group, each control group converter having met the conversion criterion of the campaign; and

comparing features of media consumption histories of the treatment group converters to features of media consumption histories of the control group converters;

receiving, by the influence system and from an auction system, a notification that an opportunity to expose a specified entity to advertising content is available, wherein the specified entity is not included in the treatment group;

responsive to receiving the notification, determining, by the influence system, a campaign frequency cap for the specified entity by applying the constructed influence model to features of the specified entity's media consumption history; and

providing, from the influence system to the auction system, a response configured according to the determined campaign frequency cap.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the advertising treatment of the campaign comprises advertising content, the advertising content comprising at least one of an image, text, a video clip, an audio clip, and a multimedia presentation.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the advertising treatment of the campaign is delivered in conjunction with at least one of a web page, a networked gamed display, and a mobile application interface.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the treatment group further comprises a plurality of entities which been exposed to an a minimum viewability of the advertising treatment of the campaign.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the treatment group further comprises a plurality of entities which have been exposed to multiple advertising probes of the campaign, each campaign probe corresponding to the advertising treatment of the campaign.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein:

the notification comprises a bid request; and

the response to the notification comprises a bid amount determined according to the result of applying the constructed influence model.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein:

responsive to receiving the notification further comprises customizing advertising content according to the determined frequency cap; and

wherein the response is further configured according to the customized advertising content.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein:

responsive to receiving the notification further comprises determining a historic exposure of the specified entity to advertising content of the campaign; and

determining the campaign frequency for the specified entity cap is further according to the determined historic exposure.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing processor-executable computer program instructions that, when executed, cause a computer processor to perform a method, the method comprising:

constructing, by an influence system, an influence model for a campaign, comprising:

selecting a treatment group comprising a plurality of entities which been exposed to a advertising treatment of the campaign;

selecting a control group comprising a plurality of entities, wherein the control group excludes entities of the treatment group and wherein the control group comprises entities which have not been exposed to the advertising treatment of the campaign;

selecting treatment group converters from the treatment group, each treatment group converter having met a conversion criterion the campaign after exposure to the campaign's advertising treatment;

selecting control group converters from the control group, each control group converter having met the conversion criterion of the campaign; and

comparing features of media consumption histories of the treatment group converters to features of media consumption histories of the control group converters;

receiving, by the influence system and from an auction system, a notification that an opportunity to expose a specified entity to advertising content is available, wherein the specified entity is not included in the treatment group;

responsive to receiving the notification, determining, by the influence system, a campaign frequency cap for the specified entity by applying the constructed influence model to features of the specified entity's media consumption history; and

providing, from the influence system to the auction system, a response configured according to the determined campaign frequency cap.

10. The medium of claim 9 , wherein the advertising treatment of the campaign comprises advertising content, the advertising content comprising at least one of an image, text, a video clip, an audio clip, and a multimedia presentation.

11. The medium of claim 9 , wherein the advertising treatment of the campaign is delivered in conjunction with at least one of a web page, a networked gamed display, and a mobile application interface.

12. The medium of claim 9 , wherein the treatment group further comprises a plurality of entities which been exposed to an a minimum viewability of the advertising treatment of the campaign.

13. The medium of claim 9 , wherein the treatment group further comprises a plurality of entities which have been exposed to multiple advertising probes of the campaign, each campaign probe corresponding to the advertising treatment of the campaign.

14. The medium of claim 9 , wherein:

the notification comprises a bid request; and

the response to the notification comprises a bid amount determined according to the result of applying the constructed influence model.

15. The medium of claim 9 , wherein:

responsive to receiving the notification further comprises:

customizing advertising content according to the determined frequency cap; and

wherein the response is further configured according to the customized advertising content.

16. The medium of claim 9 , wherein:

responsive to receiving the notification further comprises determining a historic exposure of the specified entity to advertising content of the campaign; and

determining the campaign frequency for the specified entity cap is further according to the determined historic exposure.

17. A system comprising:

a processor; and

a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing processor-executable computer program instructions that, when executed, cause a computer processor to perform a method, the method comprising:

constructing, by an influence system, an influence model for a campaign, comprising:

selecting a treatment group comprising a plurality of entities which been exposed to a advertising treatment of the campaign;

selecting a control group comprising a plurality of entities, wherein the control group excludes entities of the treatment group and wherein the control group comprises entities which have not been exposed to the advertising treatment of the campaign;

selecting treatment group converters from the treatment group, each treatment group converter having met a conversion criterion the campaign after exposure to the campaign's advertising treatment;

selecting control group converters from the control group, each control group converter having met the conversion criterion of the campaign; and

comparing features of media consumption histories of the treatment group converters to features of media consumption histories of the control group converters;

receiving, by the influence system and from an auction system, a notification that an opportunity to expose a specified entity to advertising content is available, wherein the specified entity is not included in the treatment group;

responsive to receiving the notification, determining, by the influence system, a campaign frequency cap for the specified entity by applying the constructed influence model to features of the specified entity's media consumption history; and

providing, from the influence system to the auction system, a response configured according to the determined campaign frequency cap.

18. The system of claim 17 , wherein the advertising treatment of the campaign comprises advertising content, the advertising content comprising at least one of an image, text, a video clip, an audio clip, and a multimedia presentation.

19. The system of claim 17 , wherein the advertising treatment of the campaign is delivered in conjunction with at least one of a web page, a networked gamed display, and a mobile application interface.

20. The system of claim 17 , wherein the treatment group further comprises a plurality of entities which been exposed to an a minimum viewability of the advertising treatment of the campaign.

21. The system of claim 17 , wherein the treatment group further comprises a plurality of entities which have been exposed to multiple advertising probes of the campaign, each campaign probe corresponding to the advertising treatment of the campaign.

22. The system of claim 17 , wherein:

the notification comprises a bid request; and

the response to the notification comprises a bid amount determined according to the result of applying the constructed influence model.

23. The system of claim 17 , wherein:

responsive to receiving the notification further comprises:

customizing advertising content according to the determined frequency cap; and

wherein the response is further configured according to the customized advertising content.

24. The system of claim 17 , wherein:

responsive to receiving the notification further comprises determining a historic exposure of the specified entity to advertising content of the campaign; and

determining the campaign frequency for the specified entity cap is further according to the determined historic exposure.