Central plant control system based on load prediction through mass storage model
Disclosed herein are related to a system, a method, and a non-transitory computer readable medium for operating an energy plant. In one aspect, the system generates a regression model of a produced thermal energy load produced by a supply device of the plurality of devices. The system predicts the produced thermal energy load produced by the supply device for a first time period based on the regression model. The system determines a heat capacity of gas or liquid in the loop based on the predicted produced thermal energy load. The system generates a model of mass storage based on the heat capacity. The system predicts an induced thermal energy load during a second time period at a consuming device of the plurality of devices based on the model of the mass storage. The system operates the energy plant according to the predicted induced thermal energy load.
1. A controller for an energy plant including a loop formed by a plurality of devices, the controller comprising:
a processing circuit comprising a processor and memory storing instructions executed by the processor, the processing circuit configured to:
obtain load data indicating a produced thermal energy load produced by a supply device of the plurality of devices during a time period;
obtain a temperature of gas or liquid in the loop during the time period;
predict an induced thermal energy load at a consuming device of the plurality of devices during a non-steady state portion of the time period based on the produced thermal energy load during a steady state portion of the time period;
generate a model indicating a relationship between (i) the temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop and (ii) a difference between the induced thermal energy load and the produced thermal energy load, based on the predicted induced thermal energy load, the produced thermal energy load, and the temperature; and
operate the plurality of devices of the energy plant using the model to control the temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop.
2. The controller of claim 1 , wherein:
the temperature of the gas or the liquid changes beyond a predetermined range during the non-steady state portion, and
the temperature of the gas or the liquid remains within the predetermined range during the steady state portion.
3. The controller of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:
determine a thermal mass of the gas or the liquid in the loop based on the predicted induced thermal energy load during the non-steady state portion; and
generate the model based on the thermal mass.
4. The controller of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:
obtain another temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop during another time period after the time period; and
predict a deferred load in the loop during the other time period based on the other temperature and thermal mass of the gas or the liquid.
5. The controller of claim 4 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:
obtain additional load data indicating additional produced thermal energy load produced by the supply device during the other time period; and
predict an additional induced load at the consuming device during the other time period based on the deferred load and the additional produced thermal energy load during the other time period.
6. The controller of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:
filter one of the produced thermal energy load and the temperature of the gas or the liquid; and
predict the induced thermal energy load during the non-steady state portion of the time period based on the filtered one of the produced thermal energy load and the temperature of the gas or the liquid.
7. The controller of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is configured to:
assign thermal energy loads to the supply device and the consuming device to maintain the temperature within an allowable temperature range based on the model; and
operate the energy plant according to the assigned thermal energy loads.
8. A method for an energy plant including a loop formed by a plurality of devices, the method comprising:
obtaining load data indicating a produced thermal energy load produced by a supply device of the plurality of devices during a time period;
obtaining a temperature of gas or liquid in the loop during the time period;
predicting an induced thermal energy load at a consuming device of the plurality of devices during a non-steady state portion of the time period based on the produced thermal energy load during a steady state portion of the time period;
generating a model indicating a relationship between (i) the temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop and (ii) a difference between the induced thermal energy load and the produced thermal energy load, based on the predicted induced thermal energy load, the produced thermal energy load, and the temperature; and
operating the plurality of devices of the energy plant using the model to control the temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein:
the temperature of the gas or the liquid changes beyond a predetermined range during the non-steady state portion, and
the temperature of the gas or the liquid remains within the predetermined range during the steady state portion.
10. The method of claim 8 , further comprising:
determining a thermal mass of the gas or the liquid in the loop based on the predicted induced thermal energy load during the non-steady state portion; and
generating the model based on the thermal mass.
11. The method of claim 8 , further comprising:
obtaining another temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop during another time period after the time period; and
predicting a deferred load in the loop during the other time period based on the other temperature and thermal mass of the gas or the liquid.
12. The method of claim 11 , further comprising:
obtaining additional load data indicating additional produced thermal energy load produced by the supply device during the other time period; and
predicting an additional induced load at the consuming device during the other time period based on the deferred load and the additional produced thermal energy load during the other time period.
13. The method of claim 8 , further comprising:
filtering one of the produced thermal energy load and the temperature of the gas or the liquid; and
predicting the induced thermal energy load during the non-steady state portion of the time period based on the filtered one of the produced thermal energy load and the temperature of the gas or the liquid.
14. The method of claim 8 , further comprising:
assigning thermal energy loads to the supply device and the consuming device to maintain the temperature within an allowable temperature range based on the model; and
operating the energy plant according to the assigned thermal energy loads.
15. A non-transitory computer readable medium storing instructions for an energy plant including a loop formed by a plurality of devices, the instructions when executed by a processor cause the processor to:
obtain load data indicating a produced thermal energy load produced by a supply device of the plurality of devices during a time period;
obtain a temperature of gas or liquid in the loop during the time period;
predict an induced thermal energy load at a consuming device of the plurality of devices during a non-steady state portion of the time period based on the produced thermal energy load during a steady state portion of the time period;
generate a model indicating a relationship between (i) the temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop and (ii) a difference between the induced thermal energy load and the produced thermal energy load, based on the predicted induced thermal energy load, the produced thermal energy load, and the temperature; and
operate the plurality of devices of the energy plant using to the model to control the temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop.
16. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein:
the temperature of the gas or the liquid changes beyond a predetermined range during the non-steady state portion, and
the temperature of the gas or the liquid remains within the predetermined range during the steady state portion.
17. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein the instructions when executed by the processor further cause the processor to:
determine a thermal mass of the gas or the liquid in the loop based on the predicted induced thermal energy load during the non-steady state portion; and
generate the model based on the thermal mass.
18. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein the instructions when executed by the processor cause the processor to:
obtain another temperature of the gas or the liquid in the loop during another time period after the time period; and
predict a deferred load in the loop during the other time period based on the other temperature and thermal mass of the gas or the liquid.
19. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 18 , wherein the instructions when executed by the processor cause the processor to:
obtain additional load data indicating additional produced thermal energy load produced by the supply device during the other time period; and
predict an additional induced load at the consuming device during the other time period based on the deferred load and the additional produced thermal energy load during the other time period.
20. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein the instructions when executed by the processor cause the processor to:
assign thermal energy loads to the supply device and the consuming device to maintain the temperature within an allowable temperature range based on the model; and
operate the energy plant according to the assigned thermal energy loads.