Model predictive maintenance system for building equipment
A model predictive maintenance (MPM) system for building equipment includes an operational cost predictor configured to predict a cost of operating the building equipment over a duration of an optimization period, a maintenance cost predictor configured to predict a cost of performing maintenance on the building equipment over the duration of the optimization period, and an objective function optimizer configured to optimize an objective function to predict a total cost associated with the building equipment over the duration of the optimization period. The objective function includes the predicted cost of operating the building equipment and the predicted cost of performing maintenance on the building equipment. The MPM system includes an equipment controller configured to operate the building equipment to affect a variable state or condition in a building in accordance with values of one or more decision variables obtained by optimizing the objective function.
1. A model predictive maintenance system for equipment, the model predictive maintenance system comprising:
one or more processors; and
one or more non-transitory computer-readable media containing program instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:
performing an optimization of an objective function to generate, as a result of the optimization, operating decisions for the equipment and a set of maintenance decisions indicating a service time during a time period at which to perform maintenance on the equipment and a specific type of maintenance activity to be performed at the service time from a set of multiple different types of maintenance activities, the objective function comprising:
a first cost of performing maintenance on the equipment over the time period defined as a first function of the set of maintenance decisions, wherein the first function causes the first cost to increase, responsive to adding a decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions, by different amounts depending on which of the multiple different types of maintenance activities is added to the set of maintenance decisions; and
a second cost of operating the equipment over the time period defined as a second function of the set of maintenance decisions, wherein the second function causes the second cost to decrease, responsive to adding the decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions, by different amounts depending on which of the multiple different types of maintenance activities is added to the set of maintenance decisions;
causing the specific type of maintenance activity to be performed on the equipment at the service time in accordance with the set of maintenance decisions; and
controlling the equipment by generating electronic control signals based on the operating decisions for the equipment and causing the equipment to affect a variable state or condition in a building using the electronic control signals.
2. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , wherein:
the first cost of performing maintenance on the equipment over the time period comprises a cost of purchasing or replacing the equipment over the time period; and
the set of maintenance decisions indicates one or more times during the time period at which to add new devices to the equipment in addition to or in place of existing devices of the equipment.
3. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of both the set of maintenance decisions and a set of control decisions for the equipment over the time period; and
both the set of maintenance decisions and the set of control decisions are generated as results of the optimization.
4. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of an operating efficiency of the equipment; and
the operations comprise increasing the operating efficiency of the equipment responsive to adding the decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions.
5. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of an operating efficiency of the equipment; and
the operations comprise decreasing the operating efficiency of the equipment based on an estimated degradation of the equipment over the time period.
6. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , the operations comprising:
defining a reliability of the equipment as a third function of the set of maintenance decisions; and
using the reliability of the equipment to perform the optimization of the objective function to generate the set of maintenance decisions.
7. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , wherein:
the time period comprises a plurality of time steps;
at least one of the first cost or the second cost is a function of a plurality of cost values corresponding to the plurality of time steps; and
at least one of the first function or the second function defines the first cost or the second cost, respectively, as a net present value of the plurality of cost values.
8. A model predictive maintenance method for equipment, the method comprising:
performing an optimization of an objective function to generate, as a result of the optimization, operating decisions for the equipment and a set of maintenance decisions indicating a service time during a time period at which to perform maintenance on the equipment and a specific type of maintenance activity to be performed at the service time from a set of multiple different types of maintenance activities, the objective function comprising:
a first cost of performing maintenance on the equipment over the time period defined as a first function of the set of maintenance decisions, wherein the first function causes the first cost to increase responsive to adding a decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions, by different amounts depending on which of the multiple different types of maintenance activities is added to the set of maintenance decisions; and
a second cost of operating the equipment over the time period defined as a second function of the set of maintenance decisions, wherein the second function causes the second cost to decrease, responsive to adding the decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions, by different amounts depending on which of the multiple different types of maintenance activities is added to the set of maintenance decisions;
performing the specific type of maintenance activity on the equipment at the service time in accordance with the set of maintenance decisions; and
controlling the equipment by generating electronic control signals based on the operating decisions for the equipment and causing the equipment to affect a variable state or condition in a building using the electronic control signals.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein:
the first cost of performing maintenance on the equipment over the time period comprises a cost of purchasing or replacing the equipment over the time period; and
the set of maintenance decisions indicates one or more times during the time period at which to add new devices to the equipment in addition to or in place of existing devices of the equipment.
10. The method of claim 8 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of both the set of maintenance decisions and a set of control decisions for the equipment over the time period; and
both the set of maintenance decisions and the set of control decisions are generated as results of the optimization.
11. The method of claim 8 , wherein the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of an operating efficiency of the equipment; and
the method comprises increasing the operating efficiency of the equipment responsive to adding the decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions.
12. The method of claim 8 , wherein the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of an operating efficiency of the equipment; and
the method comprises decreasing the operating efficiency of the equipment based on an estimated degradation of the equipment over the time period.
13. The method of claim 8 , comprising:
defining a reliability of the equipment as a third function of the set of maintenance decisions; and
using the reliability of the equipment to perform the optimization of the objective function to generate the set of maintenance decisions.
14. The method of claim 8 , wherein:
the time period comprises a plurality of time steps;
at least one of the first cost or the second cost is a function of a plurality of cost values corresponding to the plurality of time steps; and
at least one of the first function or the second function defines the first cost or the second cost, respectively, as a net present value of the plurality of cost values.
15. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media containing program instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:
performing an optimization of an objective function to generate, as a result of the optimization, operating decisions for equipment and a set of maintenance decisions indicating a service time during a time period at which to perform maintenance on equipment and a specific type of maintenance activity to be performed at the service time from a set of multiple different types of maintenance activities, the objective function comprising:
a first cost of performing maintenance on the equipment over the time period defined as a first function of the set of maintenance decisions, wherein the first function causes the first cost to increase responsive to adding a decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions, by different amounts depending on which of the multiple different types of maintenance activities is added to the set of maintenance decisions; and
a second cost of operating the equipment over the time period defined as a second function of the set of maintenance decisions, wherein the second function causes the second cost to decrease responsive to adding the decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions, by different amounts depending on which of the multiple different types of maintenance activities is added to the set of maintenance decisions;
causing the specific type of maintenance activity to be performed on the equipment at the service time in accordance with the set of maintenance decisions; and
controlling the equipment by generating electronic control signals based on the operating decisions for the equipment and causing the equipment to affect a variable state or condition in a building using the electronic control signals.
16. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of claim 15 , wherein:
the first cost of performing maintenance on the equipment over the time period comprises a cost of purchasing or replacing the equipment over the time period; and
the set of maintenance decisions indicates one or more times during the time period at which to add new devices to the equipment in addition to or in place of existing devices of the equipment.
17. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of claim 15 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of both the set of maintenance decisions and a set of control decisions for the equipment over the time period; and
both the set of maintenance decisions and the set of control decisions are generated as results of the optimization.
18. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of claim 15 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of an operating efficiency of the equipment; and
the operations comprise increasing the operating efficiency of the equipment responsive to adding the decision to perform maintenance on the equipment to the set of maintenance decisions.
19. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of claim 15 , wherein:
the second function defines the second cost of operating the equipment over the time period as a function of an operating efficiency of the equipment; and
the operations comprise decreasing the operating efficiency of the equipment based on an estimated degradation of the equipment over the time period.
20. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable media of claim 15 , the operations comprising:
defining a reliability of the equipment as a third function of the set of maintenance decisions; and
using the reliability of the equipment to perform the optimization of the objective function to generate the set of maintenance decisions.
21. The model predictive maintenance system of claim 1 , wherein the second cost of operating the equipment is a cost of one or more resources consumed by the equipment during operation.