Technologies for solar power system performance model tuning
Technologies for solar power system performance model tuning are disclosed. In at least one illustrative embodiment, a method of tuning a system performance model for a power plant may comprise estimating an expected output of an inverter of the power plant using the system performance model, obtaining a measured output of the inverter, determining whether a difference between the expected and measured inverter outputs is within a predefined range, and tuning the system performance model using the difference in response to determining that the difference is within the predefined range. The power plant may further comprise at least one solar panel array, and the inverter may be electrically coupled to the at least one solar panel array.
1. A method of tuning a system performance model for a power plant, the power plant comprising at least one solar panel array, an inverter electrically coupled to the at least one solar panel array, and a power controller including an error processor, the method comprising:
training the system performance model using default parameters;
estimating an expected output of the inverter using the system performance model;
obtaining a measured output of the inverter;
calculating, by the power controller, a difference between the expected output of the inverter and the measured output of the inverter;
determining, by the error processor, whether the difference represents a modeling error or a performance issue; and
in response to determining that the difference represents the modeling error, tuning the system performance model using the difference for subsequent use of the system performance model for estimating the expected output of the inverter.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the system performance model for the power plant comprises (i) an array performance model characterizing the at least one solar panel array and (ii) an inverter performance model characterizing the inverter.
3. The method of claim 2 , wherein estimating the expected output of the inverter using the system performance model comprises estimating the expected output of the inverter using the inverter performance model.
4. The method of claim 3 , further comprising estimating an expected output of the at least one solar panel array using the array performance model.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein estimating the expected output of the inverter comprises estimating the expected output of the inverter using the expected output of the at least one solar panel array as an input to the inverter performance model.
6. The method of claim 5 , wherein the steps of estimating the expected outputs of the at least one solar panel array and of the inverter are performed in response to determining that the inverter is not operating in a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) mode.
7. The method of claim 3 , further comprising obtaining a measured output of the at least one solar panel array.
8. The method of claim 7 , wherein estimating the expected output of the inverter comprises estimating the expected output of the inverter using the measured output of the at least one solar panel array as an input to the inverter performance model.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein the steps of obtaining the measured output of the at least one solar panel array and estimating the expected output of the inverter are performed in response to determining that the inverter is operating in a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) mode.
10. The method of claim 9 , wherein the measured output of the at least one solar panel array is obtained in real-time without taking the at least one solar panel array off-line.
11. The method of claim 2 , wherein the array performance model is a validated model that relates solar irradiance to expected power output of the at least one solar panel array.
12. The method of claim 2 , wherein the inverter performance model relates direct current (DC) inputs of the inverter to expected alternating current (AC) outputs of the inverter.
13. The method of claim 1 , wherein the measured output of the inverter is obtained in real-time and without taking the inverter off-line.
14. The method of claim 1 , further comprising tuning the system performance model using default parameters prior to obtaining any measured output.
15. The method of claim 1 , wherein the system performance model for the power plant further comprises a site compensation model characterizing local losses associated with the power plant.
16. The method of claim 1 , wherein the difference between the expected output of the inverter and the measured output of the inverter is smoothed prior to being used to tune the system performance model.
17. The method of claim 1 , wherein tuning the system performance model comprises comparing the system performance model for the power plant to another system performance model for another power plant.
18. The method of claim 1 , wherein tuning the system performance model compensates for degradation of the system performance model over time and incrementally adjusts parameters of the system performance model to represent actual performance characteristics of the power plant.
19. The method of claim 1 , wherein tuning the system performance model comprises updating a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the power plant.
20. The method of claim 19 , wherein the KPI is at least one of a power performance index (PPI), an energy performance index (EPI), a baseline power performance index (BPPI), and a baseline energy performance index (EPI).
21. The method of claim 1 , further comprising transmitting an alert signal to a system operator in response to determining that the difference is not within a predefined range.
22. One or more non-transitory computer-readable media storing a plurality of instructions that, when executed by a power controller operatively connected to (i) the at least one solar panel array and (ii) the inverter electrically coupled to the at least one solar panel array, cause the power controller to perform the method of claim 1 .
23. A power controller to be operatively connected to (i) at least one solar panel array and (ii) an inverter electrically coupled to the at least one solar panel array, the power controller including an error processor and configured to:
train the system performance model using default parameters;
estimate an expected output of the inverter using a system performance model comprising (i) an array performance model characterizing the at least one solar panel array and (ii) an inverter performance model characterizing the inverter;
obtain a measured output of the inverter;
calculate, by the power controller, a difference between the expected output of the inverter and the measured output of the inverter;
determine, by the error processor, whether the difference represents a modeling error or a performance issue; and
in response to determining that the difference represents the modeling error, tune the system performance model using the difference for subsequent use of the system performance model to estimate the expected output of the inverter.
24. A power plant comprising:
at least one solar panel array;
an inverter electrically coupled to the at least one solar panel array; and
a power controller operatively connected to the at least one solar panel array and to the inverter, the power controller including an error processor and configured to:
train the system performance model using default parameters;
estimate an expected output of the inverter using a system performance model for the power plant;
obtain a measured output of the inverter;
calculate, by the power controller, a difference between the expected output of the inverter and the measured output of the inverter;
determine, by the error processor, whether the difference represents a modeling error or a performance issue; and
in response to determining that the difference represents the modeling error, tune the system performance model using the difference for subsequent use of the system performance model to estimate the expected output of the inverter.