Systems, methods, and storage media for calculating the frequency of cyber risk loss within computing systems
Systems, methods, and storage media for determining the probability of cyber risk-related loss within one or more computing systems composed of computing elements are disclosed. Exemplary implementations may: assess vulnerability by determining an exposure window for a computing element based on the number of discrete times within a given time frame where the computing element is in a vulnerable state; determine a frequency of contact of the computing element with threat actors; normalize the exposure window and the frequency of contact; calculate a threat event frequency by dividing the normalized exposure window by the normalized frequency of contact; and repeat the steps for multiple elements. When combined with liability data that describes the loss magnitude implications of these events ,organizations can prioritize the elements based on loss exposure and take action to prevent loss exposure.
1. A system configured for determining a frequency of cyber risk losses within one or more computing systems composed of computing elements, the system comprising:
one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions to assess vulnerability by:
determining an exposure window for a computing element based on a number of discrete times within a given time frame where the computing element is in a vulnerable state;
determining a frequency of contact of the computing element with threat actors;
normalizing the exposure window by setting a discrete time for the number of discrete times to a first period of time and setting the given time frame to a second period of time that is longer than the first period of time;
normalizing the frequency of contact by determining a mean time between contact that is represented by a number of instances of the first period of time within the second period of time;
calculating a loss event frequency by dividing the normalized exposure window by the normalized frequency of contact; and
repeating the operations above for multiple computing elements.
2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the first period of time is one day, and the second period of time is one year.
3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the exposure window, the frequency of contact, and the loss event frequency are expressed as ranges, and calculating the loss event frequency includes applying a stochastic process.
4. The system of claim 1 wherein assessing the vulnerability further comprises:
determining between exploitable vulnerable states and non-exploitable vulnerable states; and
using only the exploitable vulnerable states in determining the number of discrete times.
5. The system of claim 1 , wherein determining the frequency of contact comprises:
determining a position of the computing element within a threat landscape,
wherein data indicating the frequency of contact is determined based on the position.
6. The system of claim 1 , wherein assessing the vulnerability further comprises using zero-day exploit information to determine the exposure window.
7. The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more hardware processors are further configured by machine-readable instructions to combine the determined loss event frequency with loss magnitude data and prioritize computing elements based on loss exposure.
8. A method for determining a frequency of cyber risk losses within one or more computing systems composed of computing elements, the method comprising:
assessing vulnerability by:
determining an exposure window for a computing element based on a number of discrete times within a given time frame where the computing element is in a vulnerable state;
determining a frequency of contact of the computing element with threat actors;
normalizing the exposure window by setting a discrete time for the number of discrete times to a first period of time and setting the given time frame to a second period of time that is longer than the first period of time;
normalizing the frequency of contact by determining a mean time between contact that is represented by a number of instances of the first period of time within the second period of time;
calculating a loss event frequency by dividing the normalized exposure window by the normalized frequency of contact; and
repeating the operations above for multiple computing elements.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein the first period of time is one day, and the second period of time is one year.
10. The method of claim 8 , wherein the exposure window, the frequency of contact, and the loss event frequency are expressed as ranges, and calculating the loss event frequency includes applying a stochastic process.
11. The method of claim 8 wherein assessing the vulnerability further comprises:
determining between exploitable vulnerable states and non-exploitable vulnerable states; and
using only the exploitable vulnerable states in determining the number of discrete times.
12. The method of claim 8 , wherein determining the frequency of contact comprises:
determining a position of the computing element within a threat landscape,
wherein data indicating the frequency of contact is determined based on the position.
13. The method of claim 8 , wherein assessing the vulnerability further comprises using zero-day exploit information to determine the exposure window.
14. The method of claim 8 , further comprising combining the determined loss event frequency with loss magnitude data and prioritize computing elements based on loss exposure.