Startup control device, startup control method, and program
A startup control device for adjusting a startup schedule during startup of a power generation plant, the device includes: a determining unit which determines, on the basis of a predicted value of a physical quantity corresponding to the elapsed time from startup when the power generation plant has started up on the basis of a prescribed optimal startup schedule, and an observed value of the physical quantity acquired during the startup of the power generation plant, whether the observed value will exceed the predicted value. The device also includes a speed adjusting unit which, if the determining unit determines that the observed value will exceed the predicted value, issues an instruction to decelerate the speed of progress of elapsed time from the startup in the optimal startup schedule; and a startup timer which progresses the elapsed time from the startup at a speed based on the instruction.
1. A startup control device comprising:
a determination unit that, for a predetermined physical quantity that constrains startup of a power generation plant, determines, based on a predicted value of the physical quantity according to an elapsed time from the startup when the power generation plant is started based on a predetermined optimal startup schedule, and an observed value of the physical quantity acquired during the startup of the power generation plant, whether or not the observed value exceeds the predicted value;
a speed adjustment unit that, when the determination unit determines that the observed value exceeds the predicted value, issues an instruction to decrease a progress speed of the elapsed time from the startup in the optimal startup schedule;
a startup timer that advances the elapsed time from the startup at a speed based on the instruction; and
a control unit that outputs, to the power generation plant, a control signal corresponding to a target output according to the predetermined optimal startup schedule at a time corresponding to the elapsed time indicated by the startup timer.
2. The startup control device according to claim 1 , further comprising:
an estimation model that estimates the observed value of the physical quantity, based on operation data measured during the startup of the power generation plant, wherein
the determination unit determines whether or not the observed value exceeds the predicted value, based on the observed value estimated by the estimation model and the predicted value.
3. The startup control device according to claim 2 , wherein
the estimation model outputs an observed value of thermal stress generated in an impeller of a steam turbine, based on input parameters including measured values of a temperature, a pressure, and a flow rate of steam at an inlet of the steam turbine, and
the determination unit determines whether or not the observed value of the thermal stress exceeds a predicted value of the thermal stress.
4. The startup control device according to claim 3 , further comprising:
an initial temperature calculation model that calculates an initial temperature of the impeller of the steam turbine at the time of the startup of the power generation plant, based on the input parameters including the measured values of the temperature, the pressure, and the flow rate of the steam at the inlet of the steam turbine.
5. The startup control device according to claim 1 , wherein
the determination unit determines, based on a predicted value of a steam temperature of a steam turbine according to the elapsed time from the startup based on the optimal startup schedule, and a measured value of the steam temperature of the steam turbine measured during the startup of the power generation plant, whether or not the measured value of the steam temperature exceeds the predicted value of the steam temperature, and
when the determination unit determines that the measured value of the steam temperature exceeds the predicted value of the steam temperature, the speed adjustment unit issues an instruction to decrease the progress speed of the elapsed time.
6. The startup control device according to claim 1 , wherein
the determination unit determines whether or not the observed value of the physical quantity exceeds the predicted value of the physical quantity for each of a plurality of plant devices included in the power generation plant,
the startup control device further comprising:
a speed arbitration unit that selects a speed command corresponding to a largest decrease in progress speed, among speed commands respectively issued for the plant devices by the speed adjustment unit, based on the determination of the determination unit, and outputs the selected speed command to the startup timer.
7. A startup control method comprising:
determining, for a predetermined physical quantity that constrains startup of a power generation plant, based on a predicted value of the physical quantity according to an elapsed time from the startup when the power generation plant is started based on a predetermined optimal startup schedule, and an observed value of the physical quantity acquired during the startup of the power generation plant, whether or not the observed value exceeds the predicted value;
issuing, when it is determined that the observed value exceeds the predicted value in the determining, an instruction, to a startup timer that advances the elapsed time from the startup, to decrease a progress speed of the elapsed time from the startup in the optimal startup schedule; and
outputting, to the power generation plant, a control signal corresponding to a target output according to the predetermined optimal startup schedule at a time corresponding to the elapsed time indicated by the startup timer which has advanced the elapsed time at a speed based on the instruction.
8. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having stored thereon a computer program causing a computer to function as:
means for determining, for a predetermined physical quantity that constrains startup of a power generation plant, based on a predicted value of the physical quantity according to an elapsed time from the startup when the power generation plant is started based on a predetermined optimal startup schedule, and an observed value of the physical quantity acquired during the startup of the power generation plant, whether or not the observed value exceeds the predicted value;
means for issuing, when it is determined that the observed value exceeds the predicted value in the determining, an instruction, to a startup timer that advances the elapsed time from the startup, to decrease a progress speed of the elapsed time from the startup in the optimal startup schedule; and
means for outputting, to the power generation plant, a control signal corresponding to a target output according to the predetermined optimal startup schedule at a time corresponding to the elapsed time indicated by the startup timer which has advanced the elapsed time at a speed based on the instruction.