IP Library Patent Application 17693127
Patent Application
App. No. 17/693,127

SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR TIME SERIES MODELING

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Patent No.
US None
App. No.
17/693,127
Abstract

Systems and methods of time series modeling is provided. A system identifies a first dataset that includes a plurality of time series having a plurality of characteristics. A first time series of the plurality of time series can include one or more characteristics of the plurality of characteristics that are different from characteristics of a second time series of the plurality of time series. The system selects, based at least in part on the plurality of characteristics, a plurality of models. The system trains, via machine learning, the plurality of models with the first dataset. The system generates a model based at least in part on a combination of the plurality of models. The system deploys the model to output one or more predictions responsive to a second dataset. The second dataset can be different from the first dataset and can have at least one of the plurality of characteristics.

Claims (73)

1 . A system, comprising:

one or more processors, coupled to memory, to:

identify a first dataset comprising a plurality of time series having a plurality of characteristics, wherein a first time series of the plurality of time series comprises one or more characteristics of the plurality of characteristics that are different from characteristics of a second time series of the plurality of time series;

select, based at least in part on the plurality of characteristics, a plurality of models;

train, via machine learning, the plurality of models with the first dataset;

generate a model based at least in part on a combination of the plurality of models; and

deploy the model to output one or more predictions responsive to a second dataset, different from the first dataset, having at least one of the plurality of characteristics.

2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

determine that multiple rows in the first dataset comprise a same timestamp;

provide, responsive to the determination, a prompt via a graphical user interface displayed on a display device coupled to a computing device;

receive, via the prompt from the computing device, an indication that the first dataset comprises more than one time series; and

determine to select the plurality of models based at least in part on the indication received from the computing device.

3 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

provide, for display via a graphical user interface presented on a display device coupled to a computing device, a prompt to split the first dataset by segments;

receive, via the graphical user interface from the computing device, an indication to split the first dataset by segments; and

split, responsive to the indication, the first dataset into segments.

4 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

provide, via a graphical user interface presented by a display device of a computing device, a user interface element to adjust at least one of a first window used to derive one or more features from the first dataset or a second window over which to predict values for the one or more features.

5 . The system of claim 4 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

provide, via the graphical user interface, an indication of a forecast point at or between the first window and the second window.

6 . The system of claim 5 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

identify a blind history gap between the first window and the forecast point presented via the graphical user interface; and

provide an indication via the graphical user interface of the blind history gap.

7 . The system of claim 5 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

identify, based at least on the forecast point and the second window, a gap for which the model is unable to make predictions.

8 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

provide, for presentation by a graphical user interface via a display device coupled to a computing device, a user interface element to select a configuration for a backtest;

receive, via the user interface element, a selection of the configuration for the backtest; and

provide, for presentation by the graphical user interface, an indication of at least one of a validation portion for the backtest, a primary training data portion for the backtest, a gap for the backtest, or a holdout portion for the backtest.

9 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

provide, for presentation by a graphical user interface via a display device coupled to a computing device, a user interface element to input a calendar of events to generate a feature for the plurality of time series;

receive, via the user interface element, the calendar of events; and

derive one or more features of the first dataset using the calendar of events.

10 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the plurality of characteristics comprise at least one of seasonality, frequency content, average target values, maximum target values, minimum target values, or a number of zero values.

11 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

map each time series in the plurality of time series to at least one model in the plurality of models to select the plurality of models.

12 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured to:

cluster the time series in the plurality of time series into a plurality of groups, wherein each group in the plurality of groups comprises common or similar characteristics from the characteristics; and

assign each group to a respective model from the plurality of models to select the plurality of models.

13 . A method, comprising:

identifying, by one or more processors coupled to memory, a first dataset comprising a plurality of time series having a plurality of characteristics, wherein a first time series of the plurality of time series comprises one or more characteristics of the plurality of characteristics that are different from characteristics of a second time series of the plurality of time series;

selecting, by the one or more processors based at least in part on the plurality of characteristics, a plurality of models;

training, by the one or more processors via machine learning, the plurality of models with the first dataset;

generating, by the one or more processors, a model based at least in part on a combination of the plurality of models; and

deploying, by the one or more processors, the model to output one or more predictions responsive to a second dataset, different from the first dataset, having at least one of the plurality of characteristics.

14 . The method of claim 13 , comprising:

determining, by the one or more processors, that multiple rows in the first dataset comprise a same timestamp;

providing, by the one or more processors responsive to the determination, a prompt via a graphical user interface displayed on a display device coupled to a computing device;

receiving, by the one or more processors via the prompt from the computing device, an indication that the first dataset comprises more than one time series; and

determining, by the one or more processors, to select the plurality of models based at least in part on the indication received from the computing device.

15 . The method of claim 13 , comprising:

providing, by the one or more processors, for display via a graphical user interface presented on a display device coupled to a computing device, a prompt to split the first dataset by segments;

receiving, by the one or more processors via the graphical user interface from the computing device, an indication to split the first dataset by segments; and

splitting, by the one or more processors responsive to the indication, the first dataset into segments.

16 . The method of claim 13 , comprising:

providing, by the one or more processors via a graphical user interface presented by a display device of a computing device, a user interface element to adjust at least one of a first window used to derive one or more features from the first dataset or a second window over which to predict values for the one or more features.

17 . The method of claim 16 , comprising:

providing, by the one or more processors via the graphical user interface, an indication of a forecast point at or between the first window and the second window.

18 . The method of claim 13 , comprising:

providing, by the one or more processors, for presentation by a graphical user interface via a display device coupled to a computing device, a user interface element to select a configuration for a backtest;

receiving, by the one or more processors via the user interface element, a selection of the configuration for the backtest; and

providing, by the one or more processors, for presentation by the graphical user interface, an indication of at least one of a validation portion for the backtest, a primary training data portion for the backtest, a gap for the backtest, or a holdout portion for the backtest.

19 . A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing processor executable instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to:

identify a first dataset comprising a plurality of time series having a plurality of characteristics, wherein a first time series of the plurality of time series comprises one or more characteristics of the plurality of characteristics that are different from characteristics of a second time series of the plurality of time series;

select, based at least in part on the plurality of characteristics, a plurality of models;

train, via machine learning, the plurality of models with the first dataset;

generate a model based at least in part on a combination of the plurality of models; and

deploy the model to output one or more predictions responsive to a second dataset, different from the first dataset, having at least one of the plurality of characteristics.

20 . The computer-readable medium of claim 19 , wherein the instructions further comprise instructions to:

determine that multiple rows in the first dataset comprise a same timestamp;

provide, responsive to the determination, a prompt via a graphical user interface displayed on a display device coupled to a computing device;

receive, via the prompt from the computing device, an indication that the first dataset comprises more than one time series; and

determine to select the plurality of models based at least in part on the indication received from the computing device.

Assignments (2)
RELEASE OF SECURITY INTEREST Recorded Apr 7, 2025
From: CITIBANK, N.A.
To: DATAROBOT, INC.; ALGORITHMIA, INC.; DULLES RESEARCH, LLC
Reel/Frame 070750/0866 →
SECURITY INTEREST Recorded Mar 22, 2023
From: DATAROBOT, INC.; ALGORITHMIA, INC.; DULLES RESEARCH, LLC
To: CITIBANK, N.A.
Reel/Frame 063263/0926 →