Content-modification system with probability-based selection feature

1. A method comprising:

identifying an upcoming content modification opportunity on a channel, wherein the upcoming content modification opportunity is an upcoming opportunity for a content-presentation device to perform, beginning at a scheduled modification start-time and ending at a scheduled modification end-time, a content-modification operation in which the content-presentation device uses supplemental content to modify a modifiable content-segment received on the channel;

responsive to identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, identifying a group of multiple content-presentation devices that are currently receiving content on the channel;

for each content-presentation device in the identified group, determining a respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing a respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, wherein successful performance of the respective content-modification operation comprises the content-presentation device retrieving, from a supplemental-content delivery system, the supplemental content before the scheduled modification start-time and then completing the content-modification operation by modifying the modifiable content-segment with the supplemental content until the scheduled modification end-time, and wherein determining the respective probability comprises determining the respective probability based at least in part on historical content-modification operation data that comprises an indication of an extent to which the content-presentation device, for past content modification opportunities, successfully performed corresponding past content-modification operations based on a list of preparation actions that were performed successfully and an event that caused the content presentation device to not perform the content-modification operation; and

using at least the determined probabilities as a basis to select, from among the content-presentation devices in the identified group, a subgroup of content-presentation devices for the content-modification operation.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing broadcast schedule data associated with the channel; and

using the accessed broadcast schedule data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing in-band message data that was extracted from content transmitted by a content-distribution system on the channel; and

using the accessed in-band message data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein selecting the subgroup of content-presentation devices is based on the content-presentation devices in the subgroup having the respective probability greater than a threshold amount.

5. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

accessing the historical content-modification operation data associated with the content-presentation device,

wherein the historical content-modification operation data comprises a list of past content modification opportunities having respective scheduled modification start-times for corresponding past content-modification operations and specifies, for each of at least one of the past content modification opportunities, (i) a first indication of whether the content-presentation device retrieved respective supplemental content before the respective scheduled modification start-time and (ii) a second indication of whether the past content-modification operation was completed, and

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the first and second indications.

6. The method of claim 5 , wherein the historical content-modification operation data further specifies, for each of at least one past content-modification operation that was not completed, a third indication of a set of factors that caused the past content-modification operation not to be completed, the set of factors comprising one or more of (i) a past content-transmission delay between the content-presentation device and a respective content-distribution system or (ii) a past bandwidth of the content-presentation device, and

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the third indication.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein identifying the group of multiple content-presentation devices that are currently receiving content on the channel comprises:

detecting, for each content-presentation device of the group, a match between (i) reference fingerprint data associated with the channel and generated by the content-distribution system and (ii) query fingerprint data generated by the content-presentation device; and

identifying the group of multiple content-presentation devices that are currently receiving content on the channel based on the detected matches.

8. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon program instructions that, upon execution by a processor, cause performance of a set of operations comprising:

identifying an upcoming content modification opportunity on a channel, wherein the upcoming content modification opportunity is an upcoming opportunity for a content-presentation device to perform, beginning at a scheduled modification start-time and ending at a scheduled modification end-time, a content-modification operation in which the content-presentation device uses supplemental content to modify a modifiable content-segment received on the channel;

responsive to identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, identifying a group of multiple content-presentation devices that are currently the receiving content on the channel;

for each content-presentation device in the identified group, determining a respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing a respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, wherein successful performance of the respective content-modification operation comprises the content-presentation device retrieving, from a supplemental-content delivery system, the supplemental content before the scheduled modification start-time and then completing the content-modification operation by modifying the modifiable content-segment with the supplemental content until the scheduled modification end-time, and wherein determining the respective probability comprises determining the respective probability based at least in part on historical content-modification operation data that comprises an indication of an extent to which the content-presentation device, for past content modification opportunities, successfully performed corresponding past content-modification operations based on a list of preparation actions that were performed successfully and an event that caused the content presentation device to not perform the content-modification operation; and

using at least the determined probabilities as a basis to select, from among the content-presentation devices in the identified group, a subgroup of content-presentation devices for the content-modification operation.

9. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing broadcast schedule data associated with the channel; and

using the accessed broadcast schedule data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

10. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing in-band message data that was extracted from content transmitted by a content-distribution system on the channel; and

using the accessed in-band message data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

11. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein selecting the subgroup of content-presentation devices is based on the content-presentation devices in the subgroup having the respective probability greater than a threshold amount.

12. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , the set of operations further comprising:

accessing the historical content-modification operation data associated with the content-presentation device,

wherein the historical content-modification operation data comprises a list of past content modification opportunities having respective scheduled modification start-times for corresponding past content-modification operations and specifies, for each of at least one of the past content modification opportunities, (i) a first indication of whether the content-presentation device retrieved respective supplemental content before the respective scheduled modification start-time and (ii) a second indication of whether the past content-modification operation was completed, and

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the first and second indications.

13. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 12 , wherein the historical content-modification operation data further specifies, for each of at least one past content-modification operation that was not completed, a third indication of a set of factors that caused the past content-modification operation not to be completed, the set of factors comprising one or more of (i) a past content-transmission delay between the content-presentation device and a respective content-distribution system or (ii) a past bandwidth of the content-presentation device, and

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the third indication.

14. A computing system comprising:

a processor; and

a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon program instructions that, upon execution by the processor, cause performance of a set of operations comprising:

identifying an upcoming content modification opportunity on a channel, wherein the upcoming content modification opportunity is an upcoming opportunity for a content-presentation device to perform, beginning at a scheduled modification start-time and ending at a scheduled modification end-time, a content-modification operation in which the content-presentation device uses supplemental content to modify a modifiable content-segment received on the channel;

responsive to identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, identifying a group of multiple content-presentation devices that are currently the receiving content on the channel;

for each content-presentation device in the identified group, determining a respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing a respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, wherein successful performance of the respective content-modification operation comprises the content-presentation device retrieving, from a supplemental-content delivery system, the supplemental content before the scheduled modification start-time and then completing the content-modification operation by modifying the modifiable content-segment with the supplemental content until the scheduled modification end-time, and wherein determining the respective probability comprises determining the respective probability based at least in part on historical content-modification operation data that comprises an indication of an extent to which the content-presentation device, for past content modification opportunities, successfully performed corresponding past content-modification operations based on a list of preparation actions that were performed successfully and an event that caused the content presentation device to not perform the content-modification operation; and

using at least the determined probabilities as a basis to select, from among the content-presentation devices in the identified group, a subgroup of content-presentation devices for the content-modification operation.

15. The computing system of claim 14 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing broadcast schedule data associated with the channel; and

using the accessed broadcast schedule data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

16. The computing system of claim 14 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing in-band message data that was extracted from content transmitted by a content-distribution system on the channel; and

using the accessed in-band message data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

17. The computing system of claim 14 , the set of operations further comprising:

accessing the historical content-modification operation data associated with the content-presentation device,

wherein the respective historical content-modification operation data comprises an indication of an extent to which the content-presentation device, for past content modification opportunities having respective scheduled modification start-times, successfully performed corresponding past content-modification operations by having retrieved respective supplemental content before the respective modification start-times and then having completed the past content-modification operations, and

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the indication.

18. The computing system of claim 14 , the set of operations further comprising:

accessing the historical content-modification operation data associated with the content-presentation device,

wherein the historical content-modification operation data comprises a list of past content modification opportunities having respective scheduled modification start-times for corresponding past content-modification operations and specifies, for each of at least one of the past content modification opportunities, (i) a first indication of whether the content-presentation device retrieved respective supplemental content before the respective scheduled modification start-time and (ii) a second indication of whether the past content-modification operation was completed,

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the first and second indications.

19. The computing system of claim 18 , wherein the historical content-modification operation data further specifies, for each of at least one past content-modification operation that was not completed, a third indication of a set of factors that caused the past content-modification operation not to be completed, the set of factors comprising one or more of (i) a past content-transmission delay between the content-presentation device and a respective content-distribution system or (ii) a past bandwidth of the content-presentation device, and

wherein determining the respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing the respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel is further based on the third indication.

20. The computing system of claim 14 , wherein selecting the subgroup of content-presentation devices is based on the content-presentation devices in the subgroup having the respective probability greater than a threshold amount.