Graph outcome determination in domain-specific execution environment
A method includes obtaining identifiers of entities and symbolic artificial intelligence (AI) models configured to produce outputs responsive to inputs based on events caused by at least one of the entities. At least some of the entities are associated with outputs of respective symbolic AI models and have respective scores corresponding to the respective outputs of the symbolic AI models. The method may include obtaining scenarios, where each scenario includes simulated inputs corresponding to one or more simulated events, and at least some scenarios include a plurality of simulated inputs. The method may also include determining a population of scores of a given entity among the entities, where respective members of the population of scores correspond to respective outputs of the plurality of symbolic AI models, and where the respective outputs correspond to respective scenarios among the scenarios and storing the population of scores in memory.
1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:
obtaining, with a computer system, a portfolio of computable contracts;
obtaining, with the computer system, a plurality of scenarios;
applying, with the computer system, the scenarios to the computable contracts in the portfolio, wherein the computable contracts are expressed in a formal language and applying the scenarios comprises determining changes in state of the computable contracts specified by the formal language in response to the scenarios; and
determining, with the computer system, a distribution of outcomes in contract states resulting from applying the plurality of scenarios to the computable contracts in the portfolio; and
saving, with the computer system, the distribution of outcomes in memory.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
applying the scenarios comprises performing a Monte Carlo analysis.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the formal language specifies rights, obligations, and prohibitions.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the portfolio of computable contracts are obtained by codifying a portfolio of contracts in natural language into the formal language with natural-language processing.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the formal language is a contract definition language.
6. The method of claim 1 , comprising:
determining population statistics of the distribution of outcomes.
7. The method of claim 1 , comprising:
obtaining likelihoods of the scenarios; and
weighting the outcomes based on corresponding obtained likelihoods; and
determining, based on the weighting, likelihood-weighted population statistics of the distribution of outcomes.
8. The method of claim 1 , comprising:
steps for simulating outcomes of symbolic artificial intelligence models, wherein the computable contracts include the symbolic artificial intelligence models.
9. The method of claim 1 , comprising determining an aggregate outcome corresponding to a plurality of computable contracts having a given entity as a counterparty.
10. The method of claim 1 , comprising:
determining an aggregate outcome corresponding to a plurality of computable contracts having a plurality of entities as respective counterparties.
11. A tangible, non-transitory, machine-readable medium storing instructions that when executed effectuate operations comprising:
obtaining, with a computer system, a portfolio of computable contracts;
obtaining, with the computer system, a plurality of scenarios;
applying, with the computer system, the scenarios to the computable contracts in the portfolio, wherein the computable contracts are expressed in a formal language and applying the scenarios comprises determining changes in state of the computable contracts specified by the formal language in response to the scenarios; and
determining, with the computer system, a distribution of outcomes in contract states resulting from applying the plurality of scenarios to the computable contracts in the portfolio; and
saving, with the computer system, the distribution of outcomes in memory.
12. The medium of claim 11 , wherein:
applying the scenarios comprises performing a Monte Carlo analysis.
13. The medium of claim 11 , wherein:
the formal language specifies rights, obligations, and prohibitions.
14. The medium of claim 11 , wherein:
the portfolio of computable contracts are obtained by codifying a portfolio of contracts in natural language into the formal language with natural-language processing.
15. The medium of claim 11 , wherein:
the formal language is a contract definition language.
16. The medium of claim 11 , the operations comprising:
determining population statistics of the distribution of outcomes.
17. The medium of claim 11 , the operations comprising:
obtaining likelihoods of the scenarios; and
weighting the outcomes based on corresponding obtained likelihoods; and
determining, based on the weighting, likelihood-weighted population statistics of the distribution of outcomes.
18. The medium of claim 11 , the operations comprising:
steps for simulating outcomes of symbolic artificial intelligence models, wherein the computable contracts include the symbolic artificial intelligence models.
19. The medium of claim 11 , the operations comprising:
determining an aggregate outcome corresponding to a plurality of computable contracts having a given entity as a counterparty.
20. The medium of claim 11 , the operations comprising:
determining an aggregate outcome corresponding to a plurality of computable contracts having a plurality of entities as respective counterparties.