MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR GENERATING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A TRANSACTION WITHOUT LOSS DATA
Techniques for generating a predicted win rate curve without using loss data are disclosed. An example method includes receiving historical transaction data comprising a plurality of transactions, each transaction comprising a plurality of attributes. The method also includes processing the historical transaction data to generate training data comprising features extracted from the plurality of attributes. The method also includes training, by a processing device, a logistic model using the training data and a predicted price. Training the logistic model includes providing the predicted price and a subset of the features at an input layer of a neural network and training the neural network to generate a mapping from the predicted price and the subset of the features to parameters of a predicted win rate curve generated at an output layer of the neural network.
1 . A method comprising:
receiving historical transaction data comprising a plurality of transactions, each transaction comprising a plurality of attributes;
processing the historical transaction data to generate training data comprising features extracted from the plurality of attributes;
training, by a processing device, a logistic model using the training data and a predicted price, wherein training the logistic model comprises providing the predicted price and a subset of the features at an input layer of a neural network and training the neural network to generate a mapping from the predicted price and the subset of the features to parameters of a predicted win rate curve generated at an output layer of the neural network;
receiving, from a client device, a pricing request that describes a potential future transaction;
generating a predicted win rate curve for the potential future transaction using the trained logistic model; and
sending, to the client device, a report comprising the predicted win rate curve.
2 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the predicted price is a predicted market price generated by a price prediction model.
3 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the predicted price is a predicted market price generated by a price prediction model scaled by a customer-specific price generated by the price prediction model.
4 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the features are input to a price prediction model to generate the predicted price, and wherein the subset of the features is selected from the features based on a feature importance score computed for each of the features.
5 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the price prediction model and the logistic model are trained concurrently and wherein the features used to train the price prediction model and the logistic model are not segmented by product, product type, geography, or customer size.
6 . The method of claim 1 , wherein training the neural network comprises minimizing a loss function that characterizes a difference between a predicted price distribution for wins produced from the predicted win-rate curve and an actual price distribution of paid prices in the historical transaction data.
7 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the predicted win rate curve is generated without the use of loss data that describes failed transactions.
8 . The method of claim 1 , wherein processing the request comprises converting attributes of the potential future transaction to additional features, inputting the additional features to the price prediction model to generate an additional price prediction, and inputting a subset of the additional features to the trained logistic model to generate the predicted win rate curve.
9 . A system comprising:
a memory; and
a processing device, operatively coupled to the memory, the processing device to:
receive historical transaction data comprising a plurality of transactions, each transaction comprising a plurality of attributes;
process the historical transaction data to generate training data comprising features extracted from the plurality of attributes;
train a logistic model using the training data and a predicted price, wherein to train the logistic model comprises to provide the predicted price and a subset of the features at an input layer of a neural network and train the neural network to generate a mapping from the predicted price and the subset of the features to parameters of a predicted win rate curve generated at an output layer of the neural network;
receive, from a client device, a pricing request that describes a potential future transaction;
generate a predicted win rate curve for the potential future transaction using the trained logistic model; and
send, to the client device, a report comprising the predicted win rate curve.
10 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the predicted price is a predicted market price generated by a price prediction model.
11 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the predicted price is a predicted market price generated by a price prediction model scaled by a customer-specific price generated by the price prediction model.
12 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the processing device is further to:
input the features to a price prediction model to generate the predicted price; and
select the subset of the features based on a feature importance score computed for each of the features.
13 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the price prediction model and the logistic model are trained concurrently and wherein the features used to train the price prediction model and the logistic model are not segmented by product, product type, geography, or customer size.
14 . The system of claim 9 , wherein to train the neural network comprises to minimize a loss function that characterizes a difference between a predicted price distribution for wins produced from the predicted win-rate curve and an actual price distribution of paid prices in the historical transaction data.
15 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the processing device is to generate the predicted win rate curve without the use of loss data that describes failed transactions.
16 . The system of claim 9 , wherein to process the request, the processing device is to:
convert attributes of the potential future transaction to additional features;
input the additional features to the price prediction model to generate an additional price prediction; and
input a subset of the additional features to the trained logistic model to generate the predicted win rate curve.
17 . A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium including instructions that, when executed by a processing device, cause the processing device to:
receive historical transaction data comprising a plurality of transactions, each transaction comprising a plurality of attributes;
process the historical transaction data to generate training data comprising features extracted from the plurality of attributes;
train a logistic model using the training data and a predicted price, wherein to train the logistic model comprises to provide the predicted price and a subset of the features at an input layer of a neural network and train the neural network to generate a mapping from the predicted price and the subset of the features to parameters of a predicted win rate curve generated at an output layer of the neural network.
18 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17 , wherein the price prediction model and the logistic model are trained concurrently and wherein the features used to train the price prediction model and the logistic model are not segmented by product, product type, geography, or customer size.
19 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17 , wherein to train the neural network comprises to minimize a loss function that characterizes a difference between a predicted price distribution for wins produced from the predicted win-rate curve and an actual price distribution of paid prices in the historical transaction data.
20 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 17 , wherein the processing device is to generate the predicted win rate curve without the use of loss data that describes failed transactions.