Content-modification system with probability-based selection feature

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

identifying, by at least one computer processor, an upcoming content modification opportunity on a channel, wherein the upcoming content modification opportunity is an upcoming opportunity for a content-presentation device to perform, beginning at a scheduled modification start-time and ending at a scheduled modification end-time, a content-modification operation in which the content-presentation device uses supplemental content to modify a modifiable content-segment received on the channel;

responsive to identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, identifying a group of content-presentation devices that are currently receiving content on the channel;

transmitting one or more instructions to the group of content-presentation devices to cause the group of content-presentation devices to perform preparation actions;

receiving a respective report, from each of the content-presentation devices in the group of content presentation devices, of results of implementing the preparation actions;

for each content-presentation device in the group of content-presentation devices, determining a respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing a respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, wherein successful performance of the respective content-modification operation comprises the content-presentation device retrieving, from a supplemental-content delivery system, the supplemental content before the scheduled modification start-time and then completing the content-modification operation by modifying the modifiable content-segment with the supplemental content until the scheduled modification end-time, and wherein determining the respective probability is based, at least in part, on the respective report; and

using at least the determined probabilities as a basis to select, from among the group of content-presentation devices, a subgroup of content-presentation devices for the content-modification operation.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing broadcast schedule data associated with the channel; and

using the accessed broadcast schedule data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel comprises:

accessing in-band message data that was extracted from content transmitted by a content-distribution system on the channel; and

using the accessed in-band message data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein selecting the subgroup of content-presentation devices is based on the content-presentation devices in the subgroup having the respective probability greater than a threshold amount.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions within a predefined time window.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions based on a type of successful implementation of one or more specific types of content modification preparation actions.

8. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon program instructions that, upon execution by at least one computing device, cause the at least one computing device to perform operations comprising:

identifying an upcoming content modification opportunity on a channel, wherein the upcoming content modification opportunity is an upcoming opportunity for a content-presentation device to perform, beginning at a scheduled modification start-time and ending at a scheduled modification end-time, a content-modification operation in which the content-presentation device uses supplemental content to modify a modifiable content-segment received on the channel;

responsive to identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, identifying a group of content-presentation devices that are currently receiving content on the channel;

transmitting one or more instructions to the content-presentation devices in the group of content-presentation devices to cause the content-presentation devices to perform preparation actions;

receiving a respective report, from each of the content-presentation devices in the group of content presentation devices, of results of implementing the preparation actions;

for each content-presentation device in the identified group, determining a respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing a respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, wherein successful performance of the respective content-modification operation comprises the content-presentation device retrieving, from a supplemental-content delivery system, the supplemental content before the scheduled modification start-time and then completing the content-modification operation by modifying the modifiable content-segment with the supplemental content until the scheduled modification end-time, and wherein determining the respective probability comprises determining the respective probability based at least in part on the respective report; and

using at least the determined probabilities as a basis to select, from among the content-presentation devices in the identified group, a subgroup of content-presentation devices for the content-modification operation.

9. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel includes operations comprising:

accessing broadcast schedule data associated with the channel; and

using the accessed broadcast schedule data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

10. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel includes operations comprising:

accessing in-band message data that was extracted from content transmitted by a content-distribution system on the channel; and

using the accessed in-band message data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

11. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein selecting the subgroup of content-presentation devices is based on the content-presentation devices in the subgroup having the respective probability greater than a threshold amount.

12. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , the operations further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions.

13. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 8 , the operations further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions within a predefined time window.

14. A computing system comprising:

at least one processor; and

a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon program instructions that, upon execution by the at least one processor, cause performance of operations comprising:

identifying an upcoming content modification opportunity on a channel, wherein the upcoming content modification opportunity is an upcoming opportunity for a content-presentation device to perform, beginning at a scheduled modification start-time and ending at a scheduled modification end-time, a content-modification operation in which the content-presentation device uses supplemental content to modify a modifiable content-segment received on the channel;

responsive to identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, identifying a group of content-presentation devices that are currently receiving content on the channel;

transmitting one or more instructions to the content-presentation devices in the group of content-presentation devices to cause the content-presentation devices to perform preparation actions;

receiving a respective report, from each of the content-presentation devices in the group of content presentation devices, of results of implementing the preparation actions;

for each content-presentation device in the identified group, determining a respective probability of the content-presentation device successfully performing a respective content-modification operation in connection with the identified upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel, wherein successful performance of the respective content-modification operation comprises the content-presentation device retrieving, from a supplemental-content delivery system, the supplemental content before the scheduled modification start-time and then completing the content-modification operation by modifying the modifiable content-segment with the supplemental content until the scheduled modification end-time, and wherein determining the respective probability comprises determining the respective probability based at least in part on the respective report; and

using at least the determined probabilities as a basis to select, from among the content-presentation devices in the identified group, a subgroup of content-presentation devices for the content-modification operation.

15. The computing system of claim 14 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel includes the operations further comprising:

accessing broadcast schedule data associated with the channel; and

using the accessed broadcast schedule data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

16. The computing system of claim 14 , wherein identifying the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel includes the operations further comprising:

accessing in-band message data that was extracted from content transmitted by a content-distribution system on the channel; and

using the accessed in-band message data to identify the upcoming content modification opportunity on the channel.

17. The computing system of claim 14 , the operations further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions.

18. The computing system of claim 14 , the operations further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions within a predefined time window.

19. The computing system of claim 14 , the operations further comprising:

determining the respective probability based on an extent to which each of the content-presentation devices has successfully performed their respective one of the preparation actions based on a type of successful implementation of one or more specific types of content modification preparation actions.

20. The computing system of claim 14 , wherein selecting the subgroup of content-presentation devices is based on the content-presentation devices in the subgroup having the respective probability greater than a threshold amount.