System for automated capture and analysis of business information for reliable business venture outcome prediction
A system for fully integrated collection of business impacting data, analysis of that data and generation of both analysis-driven business decisions and analysis driven simulations of alternate candidate business actions has been devised and reduced to practice. This business operating system may be used predict the outcome of enacting candidate business decisions based upon past and current business data retrieved from both within the corporation and from a plurality of external sources pre-programmed into the system. Both single parameter set and multiple parameter set analyses are supported. Risk to value estimates of candidate decisions are also calculated.
1. A system for fully integrated collection of business impacting data, analysis of that data and generation of both analysis-driven business decisions and analysis-driven simulations of alternate candidate business decisions comprising:
a plurality of computing devices each comprising at least a processor, a memory, and a network interface;
wherein a plurality of programming instructions stored in one or more of the memories and operating on one or more of the processors of the plurality of computing devices causes the plurality of computing devices to:
retrieve a plurality of operational data and a plurality of operational goals;
retrieve a plurality of analysis parameters and control commands;
instantiate a plurality of analysis jobs on a distributed, cloud-based computing infrastructure, wherein:
each analysis job comprises a comparison of one or more of the operational goals and a relevant portion of the operational data;
at least one of the plurality of analysis parameters for each analysis job is unique to that analysis job;
each analysis job generates a plurality of potential actions to be taken in order to move toward one or more of the operational goals;
a confidence level is assigned to each of the potential actions as a weighted calculation of a random variable distribution of the comparison of the potential action with the operational data as impacted by the plurality of analysis parameters; and
a result is obtained for each analysis job, the result comprising a probability of success based on the confidence level assigned to each of the potential actions considered in the respective analysis job;
determine a plurality of planning risk parameters based on the results of each analysis job; and
use the determined planning risk parameters as inputs to a parameterized discrete event simulation to automatically develop an operational plan that meets target operational goals.
2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the system employs a portal for human interface device inputs.
3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the system uses at least information theory-based statistical analysis to predict future outcomes of the potential actions based on analyzed previous data.
4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the system uses at least Monte Carlo heuristic model value-at-risk principles to estimate future value-at-risk figures of the potential actions based on analyzed previous data.
5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the system uses a specifically designed graph-based data store service to store and manipulate a plurality of large data structures created during operational outcome analysis.
6. The system of claim 1 , wherein the system allows both analysis jobs that run in a single iteration with a single set of parameters and analysis jobs that include multiple iterations and sets of predetermined sets of parameters with termination criteria to stop execution when desired analysis results are obtained.
7. The system of claim 6 , wherein some jobs are run offline in a batch mode and other jobs are run online in an interactive mode.
8. A method for fully integrated collection of business impacting data, analysis of that data and generation of both analysis-driven business decisions and analysis-driven simulations of alternate candidate business decisions comprising the steps of:
retrieving a plurality of operational data and a plurality of operational goals;
retrieving a plurality of analysis parameters and control commands;
instantiating a plurality of analysis jobs on a distributed, cloud-based computing infrastructure, wherein:
each analysis job comprises a comparison of one or more of the operational goals and a relevant portion of the operational data;
at least one of the plurality of analysis parameters for each analysis job is unique to that analysis job;
each analysis job generates a plurality of potential actions to be taken in order to move toward one or more of the operational goals;
a confidence level is assigned to each of the potential actions as a weighted calculation of a random variable distribution of the comparison of the potential action with the operational data as impacted by the plurality of analysis parameters; and
a result is obtained for each analysis job, the result comprising a probability of success based on the confidence level assigned to each of the potential actions considered in the respective analysis job;
determining a plurality of planning risk parameters based on the results of each analysis job; and
using the determined planning risk parameters as inputs to a parameterized discrete event simulation to automatically develop an operational plan that meets target operational goals.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein the method employs a portal for human interface device inputs.
10. The method of claim 8 , wherein the method uses at least information theory-based statistical analysis to predict future outcomes of the potential actions based on analyzed previous data.
11. The method of claim 8 , wherein the system uses at least Monte Carlo heuristic model value-at-risk principles to estimate future value-at-risk figures of the potential actions based on analyzed previous data.
12. Method of claim 8 , wherein the system uses a specifically designed graph-based data store service to store and manipulate a plurality of large data structures created during operational outcome analysis.
13. The method of claim 8 , wherein the system allows both analysis jobs that run in a single iteration with a single set of parameters and analysis jobs that include multiple iterations and sets of predetermined sets of parameters with termination criteria to stop execution when desired analysis results are obtained.
14. The method of claim 13 , wherein some jobs are run offline in a batch mode and other jobs are run online in an interactive mode.
15. A computer-readable, non-transitory medium comprising a plurality of programming instructions that, when operating on a plurality of computing devices each comprising at least a processor, a memory, and a network interface, cause the plurality of computing devices to carry out the method of claim 8 .