MARKET ADJUSTED DATA DRIVEN TEAM STRENGTH RATINGS FOR ACCURATE TOURNAMENT SIMULATION
Embodiments disclosed herein generally relate to a system and method for updating a set of strength-based ratings for a sporting event using market information. The present embodiments provide a data-driven approach leveraging market information to derive an updated team strength prior to an upcoming event. For example, a prediction model can internally determine an initial team strength measurement. The prediction model can also obtain futures market information and update the initial team strength measurement using the futures market information.
1 . A method of updating a set of strength-based ratings for a sporting event using market information, the method comprising:
identifying an occurrence of a sporting event;
generating, using a prediction model, an initial set of strength ratings of each player or team associated with the sporting event responsive to identifying the occurrence of the sporting event;
obtaining a set of market information specifying at least a predicted likelihood of each player or team winning the sporting event;
generating, using the prediction model, an updated set of strength ratings using the set of market information;
simulating, via a simulation model, the sporting event using the updated set of strength ratings a plurality of times to generate a set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event; and
generating an output depicting the predictions of each player or team that are part of the sporting event.
2 . The method of claim 1 , wherein each of the initial set of strength ratings include a metric indicating a predicted strength of each player or team that are part of the sporting event, wherein the initial set of strength ratings are generated at least based on historical player and team data.
3 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the market information is obtained by one or more sources of market information.
4 . The method of claim 3 , wherein the market information is obtained by multiple sources of market information, and wherein the method further comprises:
combining data from each of the multiple sources of market information to generate the predicted likelihood of each player or team winning the sporting event.
5 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event include, for each player or team, a predicted likelihood of the player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event and/or the player or team winning the sporting event.
6 . The method of claim 5 , wherein the set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event are based on each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event in each of a number of simulations of the sporting event.
7 . The method of claim 5 , wherein the output includes an illustration of a bracket depicting an initial placement of each player or team in the sporting event, and wherein the output further displays the predictions of each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event.
8 . The method of claim 5 , wherein the output includes a table of each player or team in the sporting event and the predictions of each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event.
9 . A system for updating a set of strength-based ratings for a sporting event using market information, the system comprising:
a processor; and
a memory having programming instructions stored thereon, which, when executed by the processor, performs one or more operations comprising:
identifying an occurrence of an upcoming sporting event;
generating, using a prediction model, an initial set of strength ratings of each player or team associated with the sporting event;
obtaining a set of market information specifying any of a predicted likelihood of each player or team advancing to a stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event;
generating, using the prediction model, an updated set of strength ratings using the set of market information;
simulating, by a simulation model, the sporting event using the updated set of strength ratings to generate a set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event, wherein the set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event include, for each player or team, a predicted likelihood of the player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event and/or the player or team winning the sporting event; and
generating an output depicting the predictions of each player or team that are part of the sporting event.
10 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the one or more operations further include:
identifying a change to a roster of one or more teams for the sporting event; and
responsive to identifying the change, modifying the initial set of strength ratings of each player or team associated with the sporting event to account for the change to the roster of the one or more teams for the sporting event.
11 . The system of claim 9 , wherein each of the initial set of strength ratings include a metric indicating a predicted strength of each player or team that are part of the sporting event, wherein the initial set of strength ratings are generated at least based on historical player and team data.
12 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the market information is obtained by multiple sources of market information, and wherein the operations further include:
combining data from each of the multiple sources of market information to generate the predicted likelihood of each player or team winning the sporting event.
13 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the output includes an illustration of a bracket depicting an initial placement of each player or team in the sporting event, and wherein the output further displays the predictions of each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event.
14 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the output includes a table of each player or team in the sporting event and the predictions of each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event.
15 . A non-transitory computer readable medium including one or more sequences of instructions that, when executed by one or more processors, causes the one or more processors to perform processes including:
identifying an occurrence of an upcoming sporting event;
generating, using a prediction model, an initial set of strength ratings of each player or team associated with the sporting event;
obtaining market information from multiple sources specifying at least a predicted likelihood of each player or team winning the sporting event;
combining data from each of the multiple sources of market information to generate a combined predicted likelihood of each player or team winning the sporting event;
generating, using the prediction model, an updated set of strength ratings using the combined predicted likelihood of each player or team winning the sporting event;
simulating, by a simulation model, the sporting event using the updated set of strength ratings to generate a set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event; and
generating an output depicting the predictions of each player or team that are part of the sporting event.
16 . The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein each of the initial set of strength ratings include a metric indicating a predicted strength of each player or team that are part of the sporting event, wherein the initial set of strength ratings are generated at least based on historical player and team data.
17 . The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein the set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event include, for each player or team, a predicted likelihood of the player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event and/or the player or team winning the sporting event.
18 . The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17 , wherein the set of predictions for each player or team that are part of the sporting event are based on each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event in each of a number of simulations of the sporting event.
19 . The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17 , wherein the output includes an illustration of a bracket depicting an initial placement of each player or team in the sporting event, and wherein the output further displays the predictions of each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event.
20 . The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17 , wherein the output includes a table of each player or team in the sporting event and the predictions of each player or team advancing to each stage of the sporting event or winning the sporting event.