PREDICTION OF PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETER
Disclosed herein are techniques related to predicting a physiological condition of a user. In some embodiments, the techniques may involve obtaining one or more glucose concentration values measured from a user; applying, to the one or more glucose concentration values measured from the user, a first glucose prediction model for a first prediction horizon; obtaining, based on applying the first glucose prediction model, a first predicted glucose value of the user; and predicting a second predicted glucose value of the user for a second prediction horizon that is less than the first prediction horizon, based on the first predicted glucose value and at least one glucose concentration value of the one or more glucose concentration values. In some scenarios, the physiological condition may include, for example, hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia.
1 . A processor-implemented method, the method comprising:
obtaining one or more glucose concentration values measured from a user;
applying, to the one or more glucose concentration values measured from the user, a first glucose prediction model for a first prediction horizon;
obtaining, based on applying the first glucose prediction model, a first predicted glucose value of the user; and
predicting a second predicted glucose value of the user for a second prediction horizon that is less than the first prediction horizon, based on the first predicted glucose value and at least one glucose concentration value of the one or more glucose concentration values.
2 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising generating, based on the second predicted glucose value breaching a predetermined threshold level, a notification that the predetermined threshold level is predicted to be breached within the second prediction horizon.
3 . The method of claim 2 , further comprising:
suppressing the notification to prevent delivery of the notification to the user based on a contextual event, a user setting, or a combination thereof.
4 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
obtaining a first prediction threshold or a second prediction threshold; and
generating a prediction of a physiological condition of the user based on the predicted second glucose value and the first prediction threshold or the second prediction threshold.
5 . The method of claim 4 , wherein the second prediction horizon, the first prediction threshold, and the second prediction threshold are obtained from the user.
6 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the first prediction horizon is relative to when the first predicted glucose value is obtained.
7 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the obtaining of the first predicted glucose value of the user is performed at a prescribed interval.
8 . The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the obtaining of the first predicted glucose value of the user comprises estimating the first predicted glucose value of the user using the first glucose prediction model and a second glucose prediction model;
one of the first glucose prediction model or the second glucose prediction model is trained to predict whether a future blood glucose value of the user will be lower than one or more first thresholds within the first prediction horizon; and
another one of the first glucose prediction model or the second glucose prediction model is trained to predict whether the future blood glucose value of the user will exceed one or more second thresholds within the first prediction horizon.
9 . The method of claim 8 , wherein the first and second glucose prediction models each comprise a classifier trained to at least determine a probability of the future blood glucose value of the user breaching the one or more first thresholds or the one or more second thresholds within the first prediction horizon.
10 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the one or more glucose concentration values are obtained based on interstitial glucose levels of the user measured with a sensor device.
11 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the predicting of the second glucose value of the user within the prediction horizon comprises an interpolation using the first predicted glucose value and the at least one glucose concentration value of the one or more glucose concentration values.
12 . The method of claim 11 , wherein the interpolation comprises a linear interpolation between the first predicted glucose value and the at least one glucose concentration value.
13 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising generating a prediction of a physiological condition of the user, the generating of the prediction comprising generating a plurality of preliminary predictions based on the predicted second glucose value and one or more prediction thresholds, and determining that the plurality of preliminary predictions meet a condition.
14 . The method of claim 13 , wherein the condition comprises the plurality of preliminary predictions being triggered consecutively, or at least a portion of the plurality of preliminary predictions being triggered.
15 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising generating a prediction of a physiological condition of the user, the generating of the prediction comprising generating a first prediction relating to a first physiological condition and second prediction a second physiological condition, and reconciling the first and second predictions based on a rule.
16 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the first prediction horizon is 60 minutes, and the second prediction horizon is under 60 minutes.
17 . A system comprising:
one or more processors; and
one or more processor-readable media storing instructions which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause performance of:
obtaining one or more glucose concentration values measured from a user;
estimating, using the one or more glucose concentration values, a first blood glucose value of the user within a predetermined length of time;
obtaining a prediction horizon that is less than the predetermined length of time, a first threshold level, and a second threshold level;
estimating a second blood glucose value of the user within the prediction horizon based on the first blood glucose value and a first machine learning model trained to determine whether a blood glucose level of the user will be lower than the first threshold level within the prediction horizon, or based on the first blood glucose value and a second machine learning model trained to determine whether the blood glucose level of the user will be higher than the second threshold level within the prediction horizon; and
generating a prediction of a physiological condition of the user based at least on the estimated second blood glucose value.
18 . The system of claim 17 , wherein:
the first machine learning model is configured to:
output a first raw indication of the second blood glucose value of the user based at least on at least one of the one or more glucose concentration values, the first blood glucose value of the user, the first threshold level, the prediction horizon, or a combination thereof; and
generate the prediction of the physiological condition of the user based on the first raw indication of the second blood glucose value of the user, wherein the physiological condition is hyperglycemia; and
the second machine learning model is configured to:
output a second raw indication of the second blood glucose value of the user based at least on the at least one of the one or more glucose concentration values, the first blood glucose value of the user, the second threshold level, the prediction horizon, or a combination thereof; and
generate the prediction of the physiological condition of the user based on the second raw indication of the second blood glucose value of the user, wherein the physiological condition is hypoglycemia.
19 . The system of claim 18 , wherein:
the first machine learning model is further configured to generate the first raw indication based at least on an interpolation between the at least one of the one or more glucose concentration values, and the first blood glucose value of the user;
the second machine learning model is further configured to generate the second raw indication based at least on an interpolation between the at least one of the one or more glucose concentration values, and the first blood glucose value of the user;
the one or more processor-readable media storing instructions which, when executed by the one or more processors, further cause performance of providing, to the user, the prediction of the physiological condition of the user.
20 . One or more non-transitory processor-readable media storing instructions which, when executed by one or more processors, cause performance of:
obtaining one or more glucose concentration values measured from a user;
applying, to the one or more glucose concentration values measured from the user, a first glucose prediction model for a first prediction horizon;
obtaining, based on applying the first glucose prediction model, a first predicted glucose value of the user; and
predicting a second predicted glucose value of the user for a second prediction horizon that is less than the first prediction horizon, based on the first predicted glucose value and at least one glucose concentration value of the one or more glucose concentration values.