Systems and Methods for Pacing Information Delivery to Mobile Devices
Described herein are system and method for pacing information delivery to mobile devices. The method comprises, for each respective request of a first plurality of requests received during a time unit that qualifies for information delivery, predicting a respective conversion probability corresponding to a predicted probability of a mobile device associated with the respective request having at least one location event at any of one or more POIs during a time frame corresponding to the time unit. The method further comprises placing a bid for fulfilling the respective request based on the respective conversion probability and a bidding model, determining a set of predicted numbers of conversions corresponding, respectively, to a set of ranges of predicted conversion probabilities for a first number of fulfilled requests corresponding to the time unit, and adjusting the bidding model based at least on the predicted number of conversions.
1 . A method, comprising,
at one or more computer systems coupled to a packet-based network and including, or having access to, one or more databases storing therein datasets associated with mobile devices, a respective dataset including data related to an associated mobile device, a respective time stamp, and at least one respective event involving the associated mobile device at a time indicated by the respective time stamp:
for each respective request of a first plurality of requests received from the packet-based network during a first time unit:
determining if the respective request is a qualified request for information delivery based on respective request data included in the respective request and a set of information delivery parameters;
in response to the respective request being a qualified request for information delivery, predicting a respective conversion probability for the respective request, the respective conversion probability corresponding to a predicted probability of a mobile device associated with the respective request having at least one location event at any of one or more POIs during a first time frame corresponding to the first time unit;
inputting the respective conversion probability to a bidding model to determine a respective bid for fulfilling the respective request; and
transmitting the respective bid to the packet-based network;
receiving feedbacks from the package-based network, the feedbacks indicating a first set of requests having been fulfilled among the first plurality of requests;
determining a projected number of conversions using predicted probabilities of the first set of requests;
determining a predicted number of conversions using a win rate profile and predicted conversion probabilities of qualified requests among the first plurality of requests, the win rate profile providing an estimated rate for wining a bid on any qualified request as a function of a predicted conversion probability of the any qualified request; and
adjusting the bidding model based at least on the predicted number of conversions and the projected number of conversions;
wherein predicting a respective conversion probability for the respective request includes constructing a respective feature set for the respective request using at least the respective request data, and applying a machine-trained location prediction model to the respective feature set to obtain the respective conversion probability; and
wherein the location prediction model is machine trained using at least a training feature space and a set of training labels, the training feature space being constructed using datasets having time stamps in a training time period, the set of training labels being determined using datasets having time stamps in a training time frame.