Dynamic cost analysis and overbooking optimization methods and systems
A computer based system for maximizing revenue by determining an optimal quantity of a product to be sold is disclosed. The system determines the optimal number of seats to be sold for a flight based upon the flight's capacity and forecasted costs associated with the flight. The forecasting is based upon probabilistic distribution models and takes into account passenger itinerary data, passenger and market historical data, whether a passenger has flown on a previous leg of an itinerary, and the ripple denied boarding effect of reaccommodating a denied passenger. The system evaluates the potential effect of double selling a unit of inventory (e.g., seats). Downstream inventory control, revenue management and reservations systems may use the optimization data to affect the operation of the airline.
1. A system, comprising:
a network interface communicating with a memory;
the memory communicating with a overbooking optimization processor;
the processor, when executing a computer program, executes operations comprising:
calculating by the processor, a flight authorization level (AU) that minimizes an overbooking cost associated with the flight, the flight with a coach seating capacity (CAP), wherein the overbooking cost is determined by:
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SSCost
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DBCost
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where: x=# no shows for a flight
SSCost n =SSCost(max[ n −(AU−CAP),0])
DBCost n =DBCost(max[(AU−CAP)− n, 0])
x ˜Binomial(AU, p =“No-Show-Rate”)
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AU
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μ=AU× p
σ=√{square root over (AU× p ×(1 −p ))}
and wherein DBcost n is associated with the DB cost of the n th passenger that is denied boarding and is determined by:
DBcost n =DDB n *[(1−ncf)*(voucher_amt* b *pv n +(ill_will+exp_invol_cost n )*1−pv n )+HMT n )],
where
ncf=no compensation factor=the percentage of passengers denied boarding that do not qualify to be compensated;
voucher_amt=an amount of a voucher offered to passengers who volunteer to DB;
b: Breakage factor, the expected percentage of voucher dollars that will be used;
pv n : given n passengers who are denied boarding to the flight, pv n is the expected percentage of volunteers;
ill_will: Extra cost added due to bad customer image and possible loss of customers due to involuntarily denying boarding to passengers;
exp_invol_cost n : an expected payout to an involuntary DB passenger;
HMT n =an expected accommodation cost of the n th DB passenger; and
DDB n =a double DB factor.
2. The system of claim 1 , the operations further comprising:
analyzing a plurality of flights in an airline network to identify a plurality of alternate accommodation (AA) flights, wherein each AA flight the plurality of AA flights covers at least a same directional market as the flight; and
determining the re-accommodation cost by analyzing booking information for the plurality of AA flights.
3. The system of claim 2 , the operations further comprising:
selecting for a passenger i an AA flight j from the plurality of AA flights; and
assigning passenger i to AA flight j , wherein j is a member of (1 . . . J) flights, wherein J=the total number of the plurality of AA flights, wherein i is a member of (1 . . . I) passengers, and wherein I=the total number of the plurality of denied passengers for the flight.
4. The system of claim 3 , the operations further comprising:
selecting, for a passenger i+1 and based upon the assigning passenger i to AA flight j , an AA flight j+1 from the plurality of AA flights; and
assigning passenger i+1 to AA flight j+1 .
5. The system of claim 4 , wherein AA flight j and AA flight j+1 are the same flight.
6. The system of claim 2 , wherein SSCost n is based upon SSCost (n−1) for all n>1.
7. The system of claim 1 , the operations further comprising determining the No-Show-Rate by:
determining a booked passenger no-show forecast (NSF) for each booked passenger on the flight, wherein the booked passenger NSF is a based upon whether the respective booked passenger flew on a previous leg of a passenger itinerary;
accumulating each respective booked passenger NSF to determine a booked passenger NSF for the flight;
aggregating, by the processor, the booked passenger NSF for the flight and an unbooked passenger NSF to create a flight NSF; and,
calculating No-Show-Rate=(1−flight NSF).