Computing risk from a crop damaging factor for a crop on an agronomic field
Systems and methods for determining a risk of damage to a crop on a field are described. In an example embodiment, a method for limiting such damage to a crop includes receiving, for multiple hours, weather data identifying temperature values and humidity values for a geographic location of the field, determining, for the multiple hours, that a temperature value is within a first range of values and a humidity value is within a second range of values and, identifying each of the multiple hours as a risk hour for a disease. The method also includes computing a risk value for the field based on the identified risk hours, determining that the risk value is above a threshold, and determining that the crop on the field is at risk for the disease. The method then includes spraying the crop on the field with a damage mitigating chemical specific to the disease.
1. A method for limiting damage of a crop on an agronomic field, the method comprising:
receiving, for multiple hours, weather data identifying temperature values and humidity values associated with a geographic location, the multiple hours representative of weather data between a planting day of a crop on one or more agronomic fields at the geographic location and a second day for the crop on the one or more agronomic fields after the planting day;
for each day from the planting day to the second day, determining, by a computing device, for each hour of the multiple hours, that a temperature value is within a first range of values, a humidity value is within a second range of values, and the hour is a threshold number of hour(s) before sunrise or after sunset, and, in response to the temperature value being within the first range, the humidity value being within the second range, and the hour being the threshold number of hour(s) before sunrise or after sunset, identifying said hour of the multiple hours as a risk hour for a disease;
for each of the identified risk hours, weighting an hour value of the hour based on: a difference between a temperature for the hour and a stored optimal temperature and/or a difference between a humidity for the hour and a stored optimal humidity;
computing, by the computing device, for the second day, a risk value for the one or more agronomic fields based, at least in part, on a summation of the weighted hour values for the identified risk hours from the planting day to the second day;
determining, by the computing device, that the risk value is above a risk value threshold and, in response to determining that the risk value is above the risk value threshold, determining that the crop on the one or more agronomic fields is at risk of suffering damage from the disease;
storing, by the computing device, in memory of the computing device, data indicating that the crop on the one or more agronomic fields is at risk of suffering damage from the disease; and
based on the data in the memory indicating that the crop is at risk of suffering damage from the disease, controlling, by an application controller of an implement, the implement on the one or more agronomic fields to spray the crop on the one or more agronomic fields with a damage mitigating chemical specific to the disease.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the multiple hours include multiple hours in each of multiple different days between the planting day and the second day.
3. The method of claim 2 , further comprising:
determining, for one or more different hours of the multiple hours, that a temperature value is between a third range of values and, in response, identifying the one or more different hours as an anti-risk hour; and
wherein computing the risk value further comprises subtracting from the summation each of the one or more different hours identified as an anti-risk hour between the planting day and the second day.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein computing the risk value comprises:
for each of the multiple hours identified as a risk hour, weighting an hour value further based on a growth stage of the crop.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein computing the risk value includes computing the risk value as an integral of a cumulative disease risk for each day up until the second day, based on:
Id
(
x
)
=
∑
d
=
1
x
c
d
where Id is the integral of the cumulative disease risk x days after planting of the crop and Ca is a cumulative risk disease on day d.
6. The method of claim 5 , further comprising normalizing, by the computing device, the risk value as a function of the integral of cumulative disease risk divided by an integral of cumulative days since the planting day.
7. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
storing one or more correlations between a first risk value at a particular stage of crop growth and a total yield for the crop; and
computing, using he risk value and the one or more correlations, a quantification of expected damage to the crop based, at least in part, on the risk value for the second day and the one or more correlations.
8. The method of claim 1 , wherein spraying the crop on the one or more agronomic fields and/or the one or more agronomic fields with the damage mitigating chemical includes spraying t the crop on the one or more agronomic fields and/or the one or more agronomic fields with a fungicide during one of V6-V12 growth stages of the crop.