Validating traffic flow predictions based on data from a selected subset of traffic probe devices
A method of validating traffic-flow predictions includes obtaining traffic-flow prediction, associated with a particular roadway segment and a particular time. Recorded traffic data corresponding to the particular roadway segment and the particular time, which includes data from traffic probe devices, is obtained. A subset of the recorded traffic data, limited to data obtained from a subset of the traffic probe devices, is obtained, and used to generate an estimated actual traffic-flow. At least a first quality index, which is based on a degree to which the traffic-flow prediction corresponds to the estimated actual traffic-flow, is generated. If the at least a first quality index satisfies at least a first quality threshold, the traffic-flow prediction is flagged for review.
1. A method of validating traffic-flow predictions, the method comprising:
obtaining, at a processing hub including a processor and associated memory, a traffic-flow prediction, wherein the traffic-flow prediction is associated with a particular roadway segment and a particular time;
obtaining, at the processing hub, recorded traffic data corresponding to the particular roadway segment and the particular time, wherein the recorded traffic data includes data obtained from traffic probe devices;
selecting a subset of the recorded traffic data, wherein the subset of the recorded traffic data is limited to data obtained from a subset of the traffic probe devices;
generating, at the processing hub, an estimated actual traffic-flow using the subset of the recorded traffic data;
generating, at the processing hub, at least a first quality index based on a degree to which the traffic-flow prediction corresponds to the estimated actual traffic-flow;
determining whether the at least a first quality index satisfies at least a first quality threshold; and
flagging the traffic-flow prediction for review in response to determining that the at least a first quality index fails to satisfy the at least a first quality threshold.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the traffic-flow prediction represents a real-time traffic-flow prediction associated with the particular time.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the at least a first quality index includes a false alarm rate.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the at least a first quality index includes a detection rate.
5. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
generating a plurality of quality indices; and
combining the plurality of quality indices to generate the at least a first quality index.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the first quality threshold is determined, based at least in part, on processing resources required to generate traffic-flow predictions of a given quality.
7. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the first quality threshold is determined, based at least in part, on dissemination requirements associated with the traffic-flow prediction.
8. A processing hub comprising:
at least a first processor and associated memory configured to:
obtain a traffic-flow prediction, wherein the traffic-flow prediction is associated with a particular roadway segment and a particular time;
obtain recorded traffic data corresponding to the particular roadway segment and the particular time, wherein the recorded traffic data includes data obtained from traffic probe devices;
the at least a first processor is further configured to implement a validation module, the validation module configured to:
select a subset of the recorded traffic data, wherein the subset of the recorded traffic data is limited to data obtained from a subset of the traffic probe devices;
generate an estimated actual traffic-flow using the subset of the recorded traffic data;
generate at least a first quality index based on a degree to which the traffic-flow prediction corresponds to the estimated actual traffic-flow;
determine whether the at least a first quality index satisfies at least a first quality threshold; and
flag the traffic-flow prediction for review in response to determining that the at least a first quality index fails to satisfy the at least a first quality threshold.
9. The processing hub of claim 8 , wherein:
the traffic-flow prediction represents a real-time traffic-flow prediction associated with the particular time.
10. The processing hub of claim 8 , wherein:
the at least a first quality index includes a false alarm rate.
11. The processing hub of claim 8 , wherein:
the at least a first quality index includes a detection rate.
12. The processing hub of claim 8 , wherein the validation module is further configured to:
generate a plurality of quality indices; and
combine the plurality of quality indices to generate the at least a first quality index.
13. The processing hub of claim 8 , wherein:
the first quality threshold is determined, based at least in part, on processing resources available to the processing hub.
14. The processing hub of claim 8 , wherein:
the first quality threshold is determined, based at least in part, on a target device type.
15. A traffic-flow messaging system comprising:
a processing hub implemented on at least one processor and associated memory, the processing hub including:
a data input and processing module;
a prediction module coupled to the data input and processing module, the prediction module and the data input and processing module cooperating to:
obtain a traffic-flow prediction, wherein the traffic-flow prediction is associated with a particular roadway segment and a particular time;
obtain recorded traffic data corresponding to the particular roadway segment and the particular time, wherein the recorded traffic data includes data obtained from traffic probe devices;
a data validation module configured to:
select a subset of the recorded traffic data, wherein the subset of the recorded traffic data is limited to data obtained from a subset of the traffic probe devices;
generate an estimated actual traffic-flow using the subset of the recorded traffic data;
generate at least a first quality index based on a degree to which the traffic-flow prediction corresponds to the estimated actual traffic-flow;
determine whether the at least a first quality index satisfies at least a first quality threshold; and
flag the traffic-flow prediction for review in response to determining that the at least a first quality index fails to satisfy the at least a first quality threshold.
16. The traffic-flow messaging system of claim 15 , wherein:
the traffic-flow prediction represents a real-time traffic-flow prediction associated with the particular time.
17. The traffic-flow messaging system of claim 15 , wherein:
the at least a first quality index includes a false alarm rate.
18. The traffic-flow messaging system of claim 15 , wherein:
the at least a first quality index includes a detection rate.
19. The traffic-flow messaging system of claim 15 , wherein the validation module is further configured to:
generate a plurality of quality indices; and
combine the plurality of quality indices to generate the at least a first quality index.
20. The traffic-flow messaging system of claim 15 , wherein:
the first quality threshold is determined, based at least in part, on processing resources available to the processing hub.