Granted Patent B2

US 8,332,291 · App. 10/398,607 · Granted Dec 11, 2012

Assignee: Argus Information and Advisory Services, Inc.

Abstract

Claims (76)

1. A method for valuing a credit account based upon a probability that the credit account will migrate between profit driver segments, the method comprising the steps of:

a. establishing a plurality of profit driver segments, wherein the plurality of profit driver segments are determined by using a behavioral segmentation scheme wherein a plurality of accounts are grouped into clusters of similar behavior patterns based on individual profit and losses for each of the plurality of accounts;

b. characterizing the credit account based upon its historical behavior to determine a degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments;

c. determining a probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment based upon historical behavior data; and

d. valuing the credit account based upon the characterization of the credit account and the determined probability of migration,

wherein said establishing, characterizing, determining and valuing steps are performed on at least one machine, said at least one machine comprising at least one physical computing device.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of establishing a plurality of profit driver segments comprises the step of analyzing historical credit account behavior data for a population of credit accounts to determine a plurality of profit driver segments that drive profitability.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the step of analyzing historical credit account behavior data for the population of credit accounts comprises the steps of:

a. translating historical credit account behavior into profit and loss terms;

b. identifying a set of one or more profit and loss terms that are effective in characterizing the credit account behavior and profitability;

c. applying standard rates to the set of one or more profit and loss terms to isolate the credit account behavior from pricing impact.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of characterizing the credit account based upon its historical behavior comprises comparing profit and loss data for the credit account to average profit and loss data for a population of credit accounts.

5. The method of claim 4 wherein the step of comparing profit and loss data comprises the steps of:

a. determining the profit and loss cash flow values for each of the profit driver segments characterizing the credit account;

b. determining the average profit and loss cash flow value for each of the profit driver segments characterizing the population of credit accounts;

c. comparing the profit and loss cash flow values and the average profit and loss cash flow values for each of the profit driver segments characterizing the credit account; and

d. calculating a distance between each of the profit and loss cash flow values and average profit and loss cash flow values for each of the profit driver segments characterizing the credit account.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein the step of calculating the distance comprises taking a function of the distance between each of the profit and loss cash flow values and the average profit and loss cash flow values for each of the profit driver segments characterizing the credit account and scaling to one.

7. The method of claim 5 wherein the distance is calculated as the square root of the sum of the squares of the difference between each of the profit and loss cash flow values and the average profit and loss cash flow values for each of the profit driver segments characterizing the credit account.

8. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of determining the probability of migration of the credit account comprises analyzing the migration of a population of credit accounts between profit driver segments upon the happening of an account management action.

9. The method of claim 8 wherein the step of analyzing the migration comprises the steps of:

a. identify a crisp profit driver segment for each credit account in the population of credit accounts;

b. identify one or more product attributes for each credit account in the population of credit accounts;

c. grouping the credit accounts in the population of credit accounts based, at least in part, on similar crisp profit driver segments and credit product attributes; and

d. tracking the migration for one or more groups of credit accounts between profit driver segments from one period to the next upon the happening of an account management action.

10. The method of claim 1 wherein valuing the credit account comprises calculating the credit account's net present value for a period based at least in part on a current period cash flow for the credit account.

11. The method of claim 10 wherein the step of calculating the net present value of the credit account for a period comprises the steps of:

a. calculating a next period cash flow for the period;

b. discounting the next period cash flow; and

c. summing the next period cash flow and current period cash flow.

12. The method of claim 11 wherein the step of calculating the next period cash flow comprises the steps of:

a. creating an initial membership vector from the degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments;

b. creating a transition matrix based on the probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment;

c. multiplying the initial membership vector by the transition matrix to obtain a new membership vector; and

d. multiplying the new membership vector by a cash flow vector to obtain a next period expected cash flow.

13. The method of claim 12 wherein the step of creating the initial membership vector comprises the steps of:

a. determining a numerical value for the degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments; and

b. organizing the numerical values into a vector where the row of the vector numerically describes the belongingness to each of the plurality of profit driver segments.

14. The method of claim 12 wherein the step of creating the transition matrix comprises the steps of:

a. defining one or more product attributes to associate with the transition matrix;

b. selecting a population of credit accounts to incorporate into the transition matrix based on at least the product attributes;

c. determining a numerical value for the probability of migration for the population of credit accounts from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment for a given period; and

d. organizing the numerical values into the transition matrix such that the columns of the transition matrix define the profit driver segments and the rows of the transition matrix define the probability of the population of credit accounts migrating to the profit driver segment for the given period.

15. The method of claim 12 further comprising the steps of:

a. organizing a population of credit accounts into groups based on similarities in product driver segments and credit product attributes;

b. determining a cash flow for each of the profit driver segments for each of the credit accounts in the group of credit accounts;

c. averaging the cash flows for each profit driver segment of each credit account in the group of credit accounts;

d. organizing the average cash flows into a vector where the row of the vector describe the average cash flow for each of the profit driver segments,

wherein said organizing a population, determining a cash flow, averaging the cash flows, and organizing the average cash flow steps are performed on the at least one machine.

16. A system for valuing a credit account based upon a probability that the credit account will migrate between profit driver segments, the system comprising:

at least one machine comprising at least one physical computing device operatively connected to computer-readable media having computer-executable instructions comprising:

a. an account characterization module, the account characterization module being capable of establishing a plurality of profit driver segments and characterizing the credit account to determine a degree of belonging to each of the profit driver segments, wherein the plurality of profit driver segments are determined by using a behavioral segmentation scheme wherein a plurality of accounts are grouped into clusters of similar behavior patterns based on individual profit and losses for each of the plurality of accounts;

b. a transition matrix module operatively connected to the account characterization module, the transition matrix being capable of determining a probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment; and

c. a net present value module operatively connected to the account characterization module and transition matrix module, the net present value module being capable of valuing the credit account based upon the characterization of the credit account and the determined probability of migration.

17. A method for valuing a profit and loss component of a credit account based upon a probability that the credit account will migrate between profit driver segments, the method comprising the steps of:

a. establishing a plurality of profit driver segments, wherein the plurality of profit driver segments are determined by using a behavioral segmentation scheme wherein a plurality of accounts are grouped into clusters of similar behavior patterns based on individual profit and losses for each of the plurality of accounts and an unsupervised clustering technique;

b. characterizing the credit account based upon its historical behavior to determine a degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments;

c. determining a probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment based upon historical behavior data, and

d. valuing the profit and loss component of the credit account based upon the characterization of the credit account and the determined probability of migration,

wherein said establishing, characterizing, determining and valuing steps are performed on at least one machine, said at least one machine comprising at least one physical computing device.

18. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having computer-executable instructions for a method for valuing a credit account based upon a probability that the credit account will migrate between profit driver segments, the method comprising the steps of:

a. establishing a plurality of profit driver segments, wherein the plurality of profit driver segments are determined by using a behavioral segmentation scheme wherein a plurality of accounts are grouped into clusters of similar behavior patterns based on individual profit and losses for each of the plurality of accounts and an unsupervised clustering technique;

b. characterizing the credit account based upon its historical behavior to determine a degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments;

c. determining a probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment based upon historical behavior data; and

d. valuing the credit account based upon the characterization of the credit account and the determined probability of migration.

19. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having computer-executable instructions for a method for valuing a profit and loss component of a credit account based upon a probability that the credit account will migrate between profit driver segments, the method comprising the steps of:

a. establishing a plurality of profit driver segments, wherein the plurality of profit driver segments are determined by using a behavioral segmentation scheme wherein a plurality of accounts are grouped into clusters of similar behavior patterns based on individual profit and losses for each of the plurality of accounts and an unsupervised clustering technique;

b. characterizing the credit account based upon its historical behavior to determine a degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments;

c. determining a probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment based upon historical behavior data; and

d. valuing the profit and loss component of the credit account based upon the characterization of the credit account and the determined probability of migration.

20. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having computer-executable instructions for a method for valuing a credit account based upon a probability that the credit account will migrate between profit driver segments, the method comprising the steps of:

a. establishing a plurality of profit driver segments, wherein the plurality of profit driver segments are determined by using a behavioral segmentation scheme wherein a plurality of accounts are grouped into clusters of similar behavior patterns based on individual P&Ls for each of the plurality of accounts and an unsupervised clustering technique;

b. characterizing the credit account based upon its historical behavior to determine a degree of belonging of the credit account to each of the plurality of profit driver segments;

c. determining a probability of migration of the credit account from at least one profit driver segment to at least one other profit driver segment based upon historical behavior data; and

d. valuing the credit account based upon the characterization of the credit account and the determined probability of migration.

21. The computer-readable medium of claim 20 wherein the unsupervised clustering technique minimizes the variance in profitability within each segment, while maximizing the variance in profitability between the different segments.

Assignments (8)

Continuity (2)