Method and system for determining which mortgage choice is best for a consumer
A method and system for selecting a preferred debt instrument (e.g., mortgage) for an individual consumer, where the option adjusted spreads (OAS) and risk measures of a plurality of debt instruments are determined and ranked using standard bond valuation methodology. A typical scenario involves a consumer inputting a plurality of mortgages and associated features (e.g., term of loan or type of interest rate) and receiving the option adjusted spread and risk measure for each mortgage, from which the consumer may select the appropriate mortgage having the lowest option adjusted spread within his or her risk tolerance. These steps can be implemented by a computer which includes a central processing unit (CPU) and a computer code operatively associated with the CPU. The relative option adjusted spreads and risk measures of various debt instruments can be displayed on a visual display or used to automatically commence the financing of a mortgage.
1. A computer-based method for selecting a debt instrument for a borrower from a plurality of consumer debt instruments, said plurality of debt instruments having respective scheduled lives, costs, risk levels, annual percentage rates (APR) and option-adjusted spreads (OAS), said method comprising:
selecting, by the computer, debt instruments from the plurality of debt instruments, said selected debt instruments having risk levels that correspond to a risk-tolerance of the borrower, wherein said risk-tolerance of the borrower is a range of durations received from the borrower that are within the scheduled lives of the debt instruments;
determining, by the computer, present values of cash flows of the selected debt instruments based on the respective option-adjusted spreads, wherein the present values include the values of the borrower's option to prepay the selected debt instruments before the respective ends of the scheduled lives of said debt instruments;
determining, by the computer, option-adjusted annual percentage rates (option-adjusted APR) for the selected debt instruments based on the respective present values of the cash flows, including the values of the borrower's option to prepay the selected debt instruments, which values are determined by the OAS's of the selected debt instruments;
selecting, from the selected debt instruments, a debt instrument having the lowest option-adjusted APR for a duration within the range of durations received from the borrower; and
outputting, from the computer, a report identifying the debt instrument selected for the borrower,
wherein the risk-tolerance of the borrower corresponds to a predetermined period of time in which the borrower will repay the debt instruments.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the risk levels of said debt instruments are determined based on the respective scheduled lives of the instruments.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein said computer selects the consumer debt instrument with the lowest option adjusted spread.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein said computer selects the consumer debt instrument with the lowest after-tax option adjusted spread.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein said computer selects the consumer debt instrument with the lowest after-tax option adjusted annual percentage rate.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein said option-adjusted spread is based on a Treasury curve.
7. The method of claim 1 , wherein said option-adjusted spread is based on a swap curve.
8. The method of claim 1 , wherein said consumer debt instrument is a mortgage.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein said mortgage is a fixed rate mortgage.
10. The method of claim 9 , wherein said mortgage is an adjustable rate mortgage.
11. A computer-based system for selecting a debt instrument for a borrower from a plurality of consumer debt instruments, said plurality of debt instruments having respective scheduled lives, costs, risk levels, annual percentage rates (APR) and option-adjusted spreads (OAS), said system comprising:
a processor; and
a data storage device including computer-readable instructions that, when executed by the processor control the computer to:
select debt instruments from the plurality of debt instruments, said selected debt instruments having risk levels that correspond to a risk-tolerance of the borrower, wherein said risk-tolerance of the borrower is a range of durations received from the borrower that are within the scheduled lives of the debt instruments;
determine present values of cash flows of the selected debt instruments based on the respective option-adjusted spreads, wherein the present values include the values of the borrower's option to prepay the selected debt instruments before the respective ends of the scheduled lives of said debt instruments;
determine, by the computer, option-adjusted annual percentage rates (option-adjusted APR) for the selected debt instruments based on the respective present values of the cash flows, including the values of the borrower's option to prepay the selected debt instruments, which values are determined by the OAS's of the selected debt instruments;
select, from the selected debt instruments, a debt instrument having the lowest option-adjusted APR for a duration within the range of durations received from the borrower; and
output a report identifying the selected debt instrument selected for the borrower,
wherein the risk-tolerance of the borrower corresponds to a predetermined period of time in which the borrower will repay the debt instruments.
12. The system of claim 11 , wherein the risk levels of said debt instruments are determined based on the respective scheduled lives of the instruments.
13. The system of claim 11 , wherein said computer is configured to select the consumer debt instrument with the lowest option adjusted spread.
14. The system of claim 11 , wherein said computer is configured to select the consumer debt instrument with the lowest after-tax option adjusted spread.
15. The system of claim 11 , wherein said computer is configured to select the consumer debt instrument with the lowest after-tax option adjusted annual percentage rate.
16. The system of claim 11 , wherein said option-adjusted spread is based on a Treasury curve.
17. The system of claim 11 , wherein said option-adjusted spread is based on a swap curve.
18. The system of claim 11 , wherein said consumer debt instrument is a mortgage.
19. The system of claim 18 , wherein said mortgage is a fixed rate mortgage.
20. The system of claim 18 , wherein said mortgage is an adjustable rate mortgage.