Marker for graft failure and mortality

1. A method for at least one of prediction or risk stratification for at least one of graft failure or mortality of a subject that has received an organ transplant, and monitoring and therapy guidance of such a subject, comprising

(a) detecting and quantitating, in a sample taken from said subject, procalcitonin, wherein the level of procalcitonin is detected and quantitated with a diagnostic assay, and

(b) comparing the result to a predetermined statistically significant cut-off value range of between 0.0127 ng/mL and 0.1 ng/mL which range is correlated with the prediction or risk stratification for at least one of graft failure or mortality in a subject that has received an organ transplant;

with the proviso that the sample is taken from the subject at least one week after transplantation;

wherein

when the level of procalcitonin in the sample is within the cut-off value range, the subject is predicted or stratified to have an increased risk for at least one of graft failure or mortality; and

when the level of procalcitonin in the sample is outside of the cut-off value range, the subject is predicted or stratified to not have an increased risk for at least one of graft failure or mortality; and

wherein, in each case, monitoring, therapy or both are indicated in accordance with the prediction or risk stratification or both of graft failure or mortality.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the subject has received a renal transplant.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the subject is not suffering from a condition selected from the group consisting of: infection requiring antimicrobial therapy, sepsis, severe sepsis or septic shock.

4. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the subject's level of procalcitonin is no longer influenced by the surgical trauma caused by the organ transplantation.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein said sample is selected from the group consisting of a plasma sample, a serum sample, a blood sample or fractions thereof, a lymphatic fluid sample, a urine sample, or an extract of any of said samples.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method is a method for prediction of long term or intermediate term graft failure.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method is a method for prediction of short term graft failure.

8. The method of claim 1 , where the level of procalcitonin is correlated with at least one of the prediction or risk stratification for graft failure or mortality by a method selected from at least one of the following methods:

correlation with respect to the median of the level of procalcitonin in an ensemble of pre-determined samples,

correlation with respect to quantiles of the level of procalcitonin in an ensemble of pre-determined samples, and

correlation with a mathematical model.

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the level of procalcitonin associated with an increased risk for graft failure and/or mortality is above the median level of the normal population.

10. The method of claim 1 , wherein additionally the level of one or more further markers or clinical parameters associated with at least one of an increased risk for graft failure or mortality is determined and correlated with at least one of the prediction or risk stratification for graft failure or mortality of a subject that has received an organ transplant and monitoring and therapy guidance of such a subject.

11. The method of claim 10 , wherein said one or more clinical parameters are selected from the group consisting of: age, gender, prior history of diseases, diabetes, body mass index, genetic predisposition, family history, ethnic background, and habits which affect said risk.

12. The method of claim 10 , wherein said one or more further markers are selected from the group consisting of: markers for renal function, inflammation markers and markers associated with the cardiovascular and osmotic regulation.

13. The method of claim 12 , wherein said marker for renal function is selected from the group consisting of creatinine clearance, proteinuria and lipid markers.

14. The method of claim 12 , wherein said inflammation marker is C-reactive protein.

15. The method of claim 12 , wherein said marker associated with the cardiovascular and osmotic regulation is selected from the group consisting of proBNP, proANP, proAdrenomedullin, proEndothelin, and proVasopressin.

16. The method of claim 1 , wherein the diagnostic assay for procalcitonin is ultra sensitive and has a functional assay sensitivity (defined as the smallest concentration which can be determined with a maximal interassay CV of 20%) below 0.1 ng/mL.

17. The method of claim 11 , wherein the habit which affect said risk is smoking, alcohol consumption or diet.

18. The method of claim 15 , wherein

the level of proBNP is detected by detecting the level of a fragment thereof selected from BNP and NT-proBNP,

the level of proANP is detected by detecting the level of a fragment thereof selected from NT-proANP and MR-proANP,

the level of proAdrenomedullin is detected by detecting the level of a fragment thereof selected from Adrenomedullin, PAMP and MR-proADM,

the level of proEndothelin is detected by detecting the level of a fragment thereof selected from Endothelin-1, big-Endothelin-1, CT-proET-1 and NT-proET-1, and

the level of proVasopressin is detected by detecting the level of a fragment thereof selected from Vasopressin, Copeptin and Neurophysin 2.

19. The method of claim 1 , wherein the therapy is acute rejection treatment.

20. The method of claim 19 , wherein the acute rejection treatment is selected from the group consisting of high dose corticosteroid, antilymphocyte antibodies, immunosuppression, prednisolone, calcineurine inhibitor, a proliferation inhibitor, azathioprine, and mycophenolate mofetil.

21. The method of claim 1 , wherein the diagnostic assay is an immunoassay.

22. The method of claim 8 , wherein the mathematical model is Cox Regression.