SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE VALUE OF PERSONAL PROPERTY

1 . A workflow system for assembling a predicted inventory of property present in a home or business, the system comprising:

a database for storing data for a plurality of consumers or businesses, the data comprising, for each consumer or business, (i) categories of personal or business property typically found in a home or business, (ii) a geographic location of the consumer or business, and (iii) demographic characteristics of the consumer or business;

a segregation module for accessing a bulk source of consumer or business spending data for personal property and segregating the spending data based on the categories data, the demographic characteristics and the geographic locations;

an aggregate lifetime spending determination module for accessing data from the segregation module and compiling an aggregate lifetime spending amount for at least one category of property based on the segregated spending data and an amount of time since an inception date, the inception date corresponding (i) in the case of a consumer, to when the consumer became an adult, and (ii) in the case of a business, to when the business began operations; and

a depletion module for applying to the aggregate lifetime spending amount at least one depletion factor indicative of an average property retention duration for the at least one category of property.

2 . The system of claim 1 further comprising a database of historical personal property claims across a plurality of insurance carriers comprising, for a plurality of claims paid to policyholder claimants for each insurance carrier, (i) at least one category of claimed property, (ii) an adjusted replacement cost value (RCV) for each category of claimed property, (iii) quantities and ages of items of claimed property, (iv) depreciation applied by the carrier to items of the claimed property, (v) brands and vendors for items of the claimed property, and (vi) policy limits applied by the carrier for each claimed category of property, the depletion module accessing data from the database of historical property claims and computing the depletion factor based at least in part thereon.

3 . The system of claim 2 wherein the database of historical property claims comprises records spanning a plurality of insurance carriers and a plurality of policyholder geographies and demographies.

4 . A workflow system for assembling an insurance product, the system comprising:

a database for storing policyholder data for a plurality of policyholders, the policyholder data comprising, for each policyholder, (i) categories of personal property covered by an insurance policy associated with the policyholder, (ii) a geographic location of the policyholder, (iii) demographic characteristics of the policyholder, and (iv) data indicative of when the policyholder became an independent adult consumer;

a segregation module for accessing a bulk source of consumer spending data for personal property and segregating the spending data for each policyholder based on the categories data, the demographic characteristics and the geographic location associated with the policyholder;

a coverage determination module for accessing data from the segregation module and compiling an aggregate lifetime spending amount for each policyholder for at least one category of personal property based on the segregated spending data and an amount of time since the policyholder became an adult consumer; and

a depletion module for adjusting the coverage amount by applying thereto at least one depletion factor indicative of an average property retention duration for the at least one category of personal property.

5 . The system of claim 4 further comprising a database of historical personal property claims across a plurality of insurance carriers comprising, for a plurality of claims paid to policyholder claimants for each insurance carrier, (i) at least one category of claimed personal property, (ii) an adjusted replacement cost value (RCV) for each category of claimed personal property, (iii) quantities and ages of items of claimed personal property, (iv) depreciation applied by the carrier to items of the claimed personal property, (v) brands and vendors for items of the claimed personal property, and (vi) policy limits applied by the carrier for each claimed category of personal property, the depletion module accessing data from the database of historical personal property claims and computing the depletion factor based at least in part thereon.

6 . The system of claim 5 wherein the database of historical personal property claims comprises records spanning a plurality of insurance carriers and a plurality of policyholder geographies and demographies.

7 . The system of claim 4 further comprising a depreciation module for adjusting the coverage amount for at least one category of personal property covered by an insurance policy associated with the policyholder by applying thereto at least one depreciation factor indicative of an average decrease in value of personal property over time for the at least one category of personal property.

8 . The system of claim 4 wherein the policyholder data in the database for storing policyholder data for a plurality of policyholders further comprises, for each policyholder, data indicative of policyholder demographic information.

9 . The system of claim 4 wherein the coverage determination module compiles the coverage amount in part by summing across the categories of personal property spending data based on the amount of time since the policyholder became an adult consumer.

10 . The system of claim 4 wherein the depletion module applies a separate depletion factor to each category of personal property, the depletion factor for a category depending on at least one of (i) the category, (ii) an amount of time since the policyholder became an adult consumer, or (iii) demographic information about the policyholder's household.

11 . The system of claim 7 wherein the depreciation module applies a separate depreciation factor to each category of personal property, the depreciation factor for a category depending on at least one of (i) the category, (ii) an amount of time since the policyholder became an adult consumer, or (iii) demographic information about the policyholder's household.

12 . The system of claim 4 further comprising a policy-generation module for generating an insurance policy based at least in part on the adjusted coverage amount.

13 . A method of assembling an insurance product based on stored policyholder data for a plurality of policyholders, the policyholder data comprising, for each policyholder, (i) categories of personal property covered by an insurance policy associated with the policyholder, (ii) a geographic location of the policyholder, (iii) demographic characteristics of the policyholder, and (iv) data indicative of when the policyholder became an independent adult consumer, the method comprising the steps of:

using a computer to access a bulk source of consumer spending data for personal property;

computationally segregating the spending data for each policyholder based on the categories data, the demographic characteristics and the geographic location associated with the policyholder;

using the computer to compile a coverage amount for each policyholder based on the segregated spending data and an amount of time since the policyholder became an adult consumer; and

computationally adjusting the coverage amount by applying thereto at least one depletion factor indicative of an average property retention duration.

14 . The method of claim 13 wherein the depletion factor is computed at least in part based on data indicative of historical personal property claims across a plurality of insurance carriers, the data comprising, for a plurality of claims paid to policyholder claimants for each insurance carrier, (i) at least one category of claimed personal property, (ii) an adjusted replacement cost value (RCV) for each category of claimed personal property, (iii) quantities and ages of items of claimed personal property, (iv) depreciation applied by the carrier to items of the claimed personal property, (v) brands and vendors for items of the claimed personal property, and (vi) policy limits applied by the carrier for each claimed category of personal property.

15 . The method of claim 13 wherein the stored policyholder data further comprise at least one of income level, marital status, size of household, ages of household members, and genders of household members.

16 . The method of claim 13 wherein the bulk source of consumer spending data for personal property is the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

17 . The method of claim 13 further comprising computationally adjusting the coverage amount by applying thereto at least one depreciation factor indicative of an average decrease in value of personal property over time.

18 . The method of claim 13 further comprising computing the policyholder's premium levels.

19 . The method of claim 13 further comprising computing a risk score for the policyholder.

20 . The method of claim 19 , wherein the risk score is calculated based a plurality on geographic and demographic risk exposure variables.

21 . The method of claim 20 further comprising computing reserve requirements for an insurance company.

22 . The method of claim 13 further comprising computationally generating an insurance policy based at least in part on the adjusted coverage amount.

23 . A method of assembling a predicted inventory of property present in a home or business based on data for a plurality of consumers or businesses, the data comprising, for each consumer or business, (i) categories of personal or business property typically found in a home or business, (ii) a geographic location of the consumer or business, and (iii) demographic characteristics of the consumer or business, the method comprising the steps of:

using a computer to access a bulk source of consumer or business spending data;

computationally segregating the spending data based on the categories data, the demographic characteristics and the geographic locations;

using the computer to determine an aggregate lifetime spending by accessing the segregated data and compiling an aggregate lifetime spending amount for at least one category of property based on the segregated spending data and an amount of time since an inception date, the inception date corresponding to (i) in the case of a consumer, when the consumer became an adult, and (ii) in the case of a business, when the business began operations; and

computationally adjusting the aggregate lifetime spending amount by applying thereto at least one depletion factor indicative of an average property retention duration for the at least one category of property.

24 . The method of claim 23 wherein the depletion factor is computed based at least in part based on data indicative of historical property claims across a plurality of insurance carriers comprising, for a plurality of claims paid to policyholder claimants for each insurance carrier, (i) at least one category of claimed property, (ii) an adjusted replacement cost value (RCV) for each category of claimed property, (iii) quantities and ages of items of claimed property, (iv) depreciation applied by the carrier to items of the claimed property, (v) brands and vendors for items of the claimed property, and (vi) policy limits applied by the carrier for each claimed category of property.

25 . The system of claim 24 wherein the historical property claims span a plurality of insurance carriers and a plurality of policyholder geographies and demographies.