Method and system for predicting solar energy production
A method for hedging energy sales or purchases in a short-term future or day-ahead market includes determining an historical performance of a regional net energy forecasting methodology for a facility or facilities which have solar energy generating systems in a geographical region. The method further includes estimating a difference between the maximum cost of energy in a spot market and an energy trader's minimum price of energy for each hour bid in the short-term future or day-ahead market, determining a risk factor associated with energy sales or purchases from the historical performance and the estimated difference, and purchasing or selling options to buy energy at the previous day's day-ahead market price based on the determined risk factor.
1. A method for hedging energy sales or purchases in a a short-term future or day-ahead market against shortfalls in a spot market, comprising:
determining on a computer processor an historical accuracy of a regional net energy forecasting methodology for a facility or facilities which have solar energy generating systems in a geographical region;
estimating a difference between the maximum cost of energy in a future spot market and an energy trader's price of energy for each hour during a current day-ahead market;
determining a risk factor associated with energy sales and purchases from the determined historical performance and the estimated difference between the maximum cost of energy and the energy trader's price of energy; and
purchasing options to buy or sell energy based on the determined risk.
2. A method for hedging energy sales or purchases in a short-term future or day-ahead market, the method comprising:
determining on a computer processor an historical accuracy of a regional net energy forecasting methodology for a facility or facilities which have solar energy generating systems in a geographical region;
estimating a difference between the maximum cost of energy in a spot market and an energy trader's minimum price of energy for each hour bid in the short-term future or day-ahead market;
determining a risk factor associated with energy sales or purchases from the determined historical performance and the estimated difference; and
purchasing or selling options to buy energy at the previous day's day-ahead market price based on the determined risk factor.