Method and apparatus for model based decision making
The invention relates to an organization model and the method of generation of the same and use of the same, wherein the model is provided to be used to assess the current performance of an organization, or part thereof, with regard to its objectives and to guide future decision making by projecting likely future outcomes of proposed changes to the organization, based on cause-effect reasoning which can include a probabilistic layer, said model being constructed in part using available domain knowledge. The model can be also be used to check the validity and success of historical decisions against the current situation, to guide model review and future decision making.
1. A model representing at least part of an organization, said model comprising:
a plurality of interconnecting layers of information including a first, base, layer or layers which include the identity of different aspects of the organization and elements and/or properties relating to the performance of the same, said layer including data retrieved from one or more databases of the organization and/or external database sources and allocated to one or more of the aspects, elements and/or properties and wherein there is provided, a further layer which includes information identifying the causal links between the said aspects, elements and/or properties identified in the said first layer, said casual links developed with reference at least partially to information obtained from one or more human resources; and
wherein there is provided a further layer which includes data relating to the probability of certain identified aspects, elements and/or properties and/or links between the same, occurring.
2. A model according to claim 1 wherein the data is retrieved continually from the organization and/or external sources.
3. A model according to claim 1 wherein properties of the said aspects, elements and/or properties are provided with links such that those aspects, elements and/or properties which are linked in terms of their implementation and operation within the organization are mapped to each other.
4. A model according to claim 3 wherein the first layer provides the structure for the model and which structure is substantially complied with in the second and subsequent layers.
5. A model according to claim 1 wherein the first layer includes, for each of a plurality of the aspects of the first layer, a list of any, or any combination of, the properties, elements and/or boundaries of the aspects and/or links between the same.
6. A model according to claim 1 wherein the lists are populated with data obtained from sources within and/or external to the organization to provide lead indicators and/or extrapolated lead indicators.
7. A model according to claim 1 wherein the second layer of the model includes information from experts in all, or particular aspects, of the organization and/or information from sources external to the organization to create causal links between the aspects, elements and/or properties identified in the first layer.
8. A model according to claim 1 wherein variables to allow a degree of probability to be calculated are referred to in the said further layer.
9. A model according to claim 8 wherein analytical methods are used to identify the likelihood of a predicted result occurring as a result of a decision being made whilst taking into account other aspects, elements and/or properties and/or external information.
10. A model according to claim 1 wherein there is provided a plurality of variations of the model, said variations developed with reference to one or more scenarios developed through one or more changes being made to the content in any of the layers, relating to possible future conditions of the organization and/or considerations external to the organization.
11. A method for creating a model of at least part of an organization to allow decision making to be performed with respect to said at least part of the organization represented by the model, said method comprising:
assembling at least a first layer of the model in the form of a meta model to describe the aspects, elements and/or properties relevant to said at least part of the organization, populating the said aspects, elements and/or properties using data obtained from database sources within and/or external to the said at least part of the organization;
identifying links between said aspects, elements and/or properties so as to identify which have an influence on the performance of each other and wherein at least one further layer is developed for the model, said further layer identifying causal effects between said identified linkages based, at least partially on information obtained from subject matter experts and/or domain knowledge.
12. A method according to claim 11 wherein the said data is retrieved continuously from the data sources within the organization and/or external sources.
13. A method according to claim 11 wherein a further layer is provided which includes information relating to the probabilistic likelihood of specified aspects, elements and/or properties and/or links between the same occurring.
14. A method according to claim 11 wherein the first layer is developed using an architectural modelling environment to describe the relevant domain of the model in terms of the type of each aspect including any, or any combination of, business objectives, activities, functions, risks, projects, systems, locations and/or interfaces, and their linkages and a measure of effectiveness.
15. A method according to claim 11 wherein graphical viewpoints are generated in response to a user request made of the model and the viewpoints are automatically refreshed in response to changes in the data provided to the model.