Reliability assessment and risk management for managed pressure drilling

1. A method for a managed pressure drilling (MPD) operation, comprising:

operating a MPD drilling system that comprises a rotating control device (RCD), a drilling string non-return valve (NRV), and a choke manifold;

providing a first reliability model for a probability of a failure mode of the MPD operation;

assessing the probability of the failure mode based on the first reliability model;

devising a first well control scheme to detect the failure mode assessed based on the first reliability model;

providing one or more reliability models for the probability of the failure mode of the MPD operation;

assessing the probability of the failure mode based on the one or more reliability models;

devising one or more well control schemes to detect the failure mode assessed based on the corresponding one or more reliability models,

comparing a result of the first well control scheme with results of the one or more well control schemes;

selecting a well control scheme among the first well control scheme and the one or more well control schemes; and

modifying the MPD drilling system according to the selected well control scheme,

wherein the first reliability model and one or more reliability models are different, and are selected from the group consisting of a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), an Ishikawa diagram, a Pareto Chart, a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), and combinations thereof.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the failure mode is selected from a group consisting of from inability to making drilling mud, lost circulation, gain in mud pit level, incorrect mud weight measurements level, change of mud properties, absence of kill weight mud, inability to stab-in Inside Blowout Preventer (IBOP) or Full-Opening Safety Valve (FOSV), line rupture, loss of pressure control, unexpected gas to surface, gas in riser, obstruction in pump line, failure of pump, wellbore instability, continuous wellbore influx, high Bottom Hole Pressure (BHP), formation fracture, kick, BHP surge, unsuccessful well control, lost circulation, inability to remedy mud loss, and high Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD).

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the MPD drilling system is divided into a plurality of subsystems, and wherein a reliability function of the MPD drilling system is expressed based on reliability functions of the plurality of subsystems.

4. The method of claim 3 , wherein a life of one of the plurality of subsystems is obtained using a Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA).

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein a life of the MPD drilling system or one of the plurality of subsystems thereof is expressed according to a normal distribution, an exponential distribution, or a Weibull distribution.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the reliability model is the FMEA, wherein a risk priority number (RPN) is calculated for the failure mode.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the reliability model is the Ishikawa diagram, wherein the Ishikawa diagram is used to identify the failure mode that most frequently causes loss of well control.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the reliability model is the Pareto chart, wherein the Pareto chart is used to identify failure modes that cause loss of well control.

9. The method of claim 1 , further comprising modifying the MPD drilling system based on the selected well control scheme.

10. The method of claim 1 , wherein the MPD system is used in offshore drilling operations.

11. A managed pressure drilling system, comprising:

a rotating control device (RCD), a drilling string non-return valve (NRV), a choke manifold, and a plurality of downhole drilling tools, wherein

a reliability of the system is assessed using one or more reliability models selected from a group consisting of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Ishikawa diagram, Pareto chart, Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), and combinations thereof,

wherein one or more parts of the drilling system and a remaining live of the one of more parts is estimated using Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA), wherein the remaining live is employed in the Reliability Block Diagram (RBD).

12. The system of claim 11 , wherein a failure in the system is selected from a group consisting of inability to making drilling mud, lost circulation, gain in mud pit level, incorrect mud weight measurements level, change of mud properties, absence of kill weight mud, inability to stab-in Inside Blowout Preventer (IBOP) or Full-Opening Safety Valve (FOSV), line rupture, loss of pressure control, unexpected gas to surface, gas in riser, obstruction in pump line, failure of pump, wellbore instability, continuous wellbore influx, high Bottom Hole Pressure (BHP), formation fracture, kick, BHP surge, unsuccessful well control, lost circulation, inability to remedy mud loss, and high Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD).

13. The system of claim 11 , wherein the system is used in offshore drilling operations.