SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR GENERATING A NATURAL HAZARD CREDIT MODEL
Embodiments include systems and methods of detecting and assessing multiple types of risks related to mortgage lending. One embodiment includes a system and method of detecting and assessing risks including early payment default risks, and natural hazards risks on loan applications. One embodiment includes a computerized method that includes creating a combined risk detection model based on a default and natural hazards risk detection models and using the combined risk detection model to evaluate loan application data and generate a combined risk score that takes into account the different types of risks individually and collectively detected by the plurality of risk detection models.
1 . A system for detecting and assessing lending risks, the system comprising:
a computer system comprising one or more computing devices, the computer system programmed, via executable code modules, to implement:
a combined risk detection model for detecting and assessing data indicative of a plurality of risks in loan data, the combined risk detection model adapted to receive as input a plurality of input features extracted from two or more of a plurality of risk detection models, the plurality of risk detection models comprising:
a default risk model that detects the presence of data indicative of a risk of early payment default in the loan data, and
a natural hazard risk model that detects the presence of data indicative of a risk of a natural hazard in the loan data,
wherein the plurality of input features are extracted from the two or more risk detection models by mathematically combining scores from the plurality of risk detection models for input into the combined risk detection model, the plurality of input features being selected as based at least in part on a selection of a modeling method used to construct the combined risk detection model; and
a score reporting module that reports a composite risk score generated by the combined risk detection model.
2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the score reporting module further reports a plurality of risk indicators generated by the plurality of risk detection models.
3 . The system of claim 2 , wherein each of the risk indicators references the natural hazard risk and is classified in accordance with a weight contribution of the referenced natural hazard risk to the composite risk score.
4 . The system of claim 3 , wherein each of the risk indicators is classified as a high risk, a moderate risk, or a low risk based on the weight contribution of the referenced natural hazard risk.
5 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the combined risk detection model comprises one or more of the following modeling methods: linear regression, logistic regression, neural networks, support vector machines, and decision trees.
6 . The system of claim 5 , wherein the combined risk detection model comprises one or more of the following modeling structures:
a cascade structure; and a divide-and-conquer structure.
7 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the composite risk score is used to adjust a numerical indicator associated with the loan data.
8 . The system of claim 7 , wherein the numerical indicator comprises an LTV ratio.
9 . The system of claim 7 , wherein the numerical indicator comprises a CLTV ratio.
10 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the composite risk score is compared to the detected default risk.
11 . The system of claim 10 , wherein the comparison is provided in a report as a narrative.
12 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the composite risk score is used to calculate an automated valuation for a real estate property associated with the loan data.
13 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the score reporting module further reports a recommendation for processing the loan data based at least in part on the composite risk score.
14 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the loan data is associated with a loan being sold in a secondary market.
15 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the loan data is associated with a pending loan application.
16 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the plurality of input features further comprise insurance data.
17 . A system comprising:
physical data storage configured to store loan data; and
a computer system in communication with the physical data storage, the computer system comprising computer hardware, the computer system programmed to:
identify a default risk associated with the loan data, the default risk identified by application of a default risk model that detects the presence of data indicative of a risk of early payment default in the loan data;
identify a natural hazard risk associated with the loan data, the natural risk identified by application of a natural risk model that detects the presence of data indicative of a risk of a natural hazard in the loan data;
calculate a combined default natural hazard risk, the combined default natural hazard risk calculated by application of a combined risk detection model to the identified default risk and the identified natural hazard risk
adjust a financial characteristic associated with the loan data based at least in part on the calculated combined default natural hazard risk; and
store the adjusted financial characteristic in the physical data storage.
18 . The system of claim 17 , wherein the financial characteristic comprises an LTV ratio.
19 . The system of claim 17 , wherein the financial characteristic comprises a CLTV ratio.
20 . A system comprising:
physical data storage configured to store loan data; and
a computer system in communication with the physical data storage, the computer system comprising computer hardware, the computer system programmed to:
identify a default risk associated with the loan data, the default risk identified by application of a default risk model that detects the presence of data indicative of a risk of early payment default in the loan data;
identify a natural hazard risk associated with the loan data, the natural risk identified by application of a natural risk model that detects the presence of data indicative of a risk of a natural hazard in the loan data;
calculate a combined default natural hazard risk, the combined default natural hazard risk calculated by application of a combined risk detection model to the identified default risk and the identified natural hazard risk;
compare the calculated combined default natural hazard risk with the identified default risk; and
store the comparison in the physical data storage.