Prediction market and combinatorial prediction market volume forecasts
Systems and methods for volumetric forecasting based on prediction market probability estimates. Alternative simulated starting values for prediction markets are used in order to determine the preferred starting values for prediction markets to use in volumetric forecasting. A user interface that facilitates using prediction market probability estimates to determine volumetric forecasts is described herein.
1. A system for volumetric forecasting comprising:
a computer system comprising a server computer and at least one database in electronic, digital communication over a network, connectable or accessible remotely through the network by at least one other remote computing device, the server running a software providing:
an automated market maker;
a liquidity management system (LMS) with administrative controls for the market maker for sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window that adjust a liquidity value;
a transaction interface comprising an interactive slider interface with a slider control that allows one-step user selection to choose a response; and
a volumetric forecasting system;
wherein the transaction interface permits at least one of at least two responses with the same slider in a single action;
wherein the slider action in a first direction indicates a first response and slider action in the opposite direction indicates a second response;
wherein the automated market maker automatically calculates and displays in the investment transaction interface an amount of money or an amount of stock the user is to assign;
thereby providing a prediction market system that is intuitive,
wherein the volumetric forecasting system is operable to use the at least one of the least two responses, the amount of money or the amount of stock the user is to assign, and other data from the transaction interface to determine a volumetric forecast.
2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the administrative control for the market maker for sensitivity includes a point system, wherein the point system includes a range of selectable points between about 0 points and about 100 points.
3. The system of claim 2 , wherein the point system is set to about 5 points by default.
4. The system of claim 2 , wherein the point system is set to about 10 points by default.
5. The system of claim 2 , wherein the point system is set to about 15 points by default.
6. The system of claim 2 , wherein the at least one of the at least two responses relate to at least one question about at least one concept or at least one product.
7. The system of claim 6 , wherein the volumetric forecast is within about 0% to about 5% of an actual theoretical volumetric forecast based on an actual theoretical trial of the at least one concept or the at least one product.
8. The system of claim 6 , wherein the volumetric forecast is within about 0% to about 4% of an actual theoretical volumetric forecast based on an actual theoretical trial of the at least one concept or the at least one product.
9. The system of claim 6 , wherein the volumetric forecast is within about 0% to about 3% of an actual theoretical volumetric forecast based on an actual theoretical trial of the at least one concept or the at least one product.
10. The system of claim 6 , wherein the volumetric forecast is within about 0% to about 2% of an actual theoretical volumetric forecast based on an actual theoretical trial of the at least one concept or the at least one product.
11. A system for volumetric forecasting comprising:
a computer system comprising a server computer and at least one database in electronic, digital communication over a network, connectable or accessible remotely through the network by at least one other remote computing device, the server running a software providing:
an automated market maker;
a liquidity management system (LMS) with administrative controls for the market maker for sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window that adjust a liquidity value;
a transaction interface; and
a volumetric forecasting system;
wherein the transaction interface permits at least one response to at least one question;
wherein the automated market maker automatically calculates and displays in the investment transaction interface an amount of money or an amount of stock the user is to assign;
thereby providing a prediction market system that is intuitive,
wherein the volumetric forecasting system is operable to use the at least one response to the at least one question, the amount of money or the amount of stock the user is to assign, and other data from the transaction interface to determine a volumetric forecast.
12. The system of claim 11 , wherein the administrative control for the market maker for sensitivity includes a point system, wherein the point system includes a range of selectable points between about 0 points and about 100 points.
13. The system of claim 12 , wherein the point system is set to between about 5 points and about 15 points by default.
14. The system of claim 12 , wherein the at least one of the at least two responses relate to at least one question about at least one concept or at least one product, and wherein the volumetric forecast is within about 0% to about 3% of an actual theoretical volumetric forecast based on an actual theoretical trial of the at least one concept or the at least one product.