COMPUTER BASED SYSTEM AND METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING TRADING OPPORTUNITIES ASSOCIATED WITH OPTIONABLE INSTRUMENTS
The system and methodology of the present invention operate to generate option valuation determinations as well as proposed trading strategies based thereon. In making these determinations, the system assesses the high and low points for historic volatility for the underlying asset over some pre-determined historical timeframe. Next, the range of historical volatilities over that time frame is divided into a number of levels against which current, present implied volatility of the underlying asset can be compared. The system may display/report the determined valuations for various selected options for manual user action in setting up trades based thereon. In other embodiments, the system of the present invention may generate recommended trades involving one or more options based on the novel valuation determinations made by the system of the present invention. These trades are designed to take advantage of perceived incongruities between an available price for an option and its true value according to the novel assessment undertaken by the system of the present invention.
1 . A derivatives trading system configured to provide actionable trading signals employing at least one derivative instrument, the derivatives trading system comprising:
one or more processors configured to execute computer program modules, the computer program modules comprising:
a market data receiving module configured to receive pricing data for an underlying asset and said at least one derivative instrument, said at least one derivative instrument deriving from said underlying asset;
a historic volatility determination module configured to determine historic volatility for said underlying asset based upon the extreme high and low values of volatility associated with said underlying asset during a pre-determined historic period;
an implied volatility determination module configured to determine implied volatility of said at least one derivative instrument;
a valuation assessment module configured to assign said at least one derivative instrument to a valuation zone based on a comparison between said historic volatility and said implied volatility; and
a trade signal generation module configured to generate at least one derivative based trading recommendation based upon the assigned valuation zone of said at least one derivative instrument.
2 . The derivatives trading system of claim 1 wherein said at least one derivative instrument comprises at least one option and said underlying asset comprises a stock.
3 . The derivatives trading system of claim 1 wherein said at least one derivative instrument comprises at least one futures contract and said underlying asset comprises a currency.
4 . The derivatives trading system of claim 1 wherein said at least one derivative instrument comprises at least one futures contract and said underlying asset comprises a commodity.
5 . The derivatives trading system of claim 1 wherein said trade signal generation module generates a trade execution rather than a trade recommendation.
6 . The derivatives trading system of claim 1 wherein said pre-determined historic period is a previous 52-week period.
7 . The derivative trading system of claim 1 wherein an implied volatility value in excess of a historic volatility value represents a potential overvaluation for said at least one derivative instrument.
8 . The derivative trading system of claim 7 wherein the extent of said potential overvaluation of said at least one derivative instrument is directly related to the extent to which said implied volatility value exceeds said historic volatility value.
9 . The derivative trading system of claim 1 wherein there exists five potential valuation zones to which said at least one derivative instrument may be assigned.
10 . The derivative trading system of claim 9 where said potential valuation zones comprise very deflated, deflated, fair, inflated and very inflated.
11 . A method for generating actionable trading signals employing at least one derivative instrument, the method comprising the steps of:
receiving pricing data for an underlying asset and said at least one derivative instrument, said at least one derivative instrument deriving from said underlying asset;
determining historic volatility for said underlying asset based upon the extreme high and low values of volatility associated with said underlying asset during a pre-determined historic period;
determining implied volatility of said at least one derivative instrument;
assigning said at least one derivative instrument to a valuation zone based on a comparison between said historic volatility and said implied volatility; and
generating at least one derivative based trading recommendation based upon the assigned valuation zone of said at least one derivative instrument.
12 . The method of claim 11 wherein said at least one derivative instrument comprises at least one option and said underlying asset comprises a stock.
13 . The method of claim 11 wherein said at least one derivative instrument comprises at least one futures contract and said underlying asset comprises a currency.
14 . The method of claim 11 wherein said at least one derivative instrument comprises at least one futures contract and said underlying asset comprises a commodity.
15 . The method of claim 11 wherein said a trade execution is generated rather than a trade recommendation.
16 . The method of claim 11 wherein said pre-determined historic period is a previous 52-week period.
17 . The method of claim 11 wherein an implied volatility value in excess of a historic volatility value represents a potential overvaluation for said at least one derivative instrument.
18 . The method of claim 17 wherein the extent of said potential overvaluation of said at least one derivative instrument is directly related to the extent to which said implied volatility value exceeds said historic volatility value.
19 . The method of claim 11 wherein there exists five potential valuation zones to which said at least one derivative instrument may be assigned.
20 . The method of claim 19 where said potential valuation zones comprise very deflated, deflated, fair, inflated and very inflated.