State estimation and run life prediction for pumping system
A technique facilitates formulation of predictions regarding the run life of a pumping system. Based on the predicted run life, and factors affecting that predicted run life, corrective actions may be selected and implemented. The corrective actions may involve adjustment of operational parameters regarding the pumping system so as to prolong the actual run life of the pumping system. The technique utilizes an algorithm which combines various models, e.g. physical models and degradation models, to provide various failure/run life predictions. The various models may utilize a variety of sensor data, such as actual sensor data and virtual sensor data, to both evaluate the state of the pumping system and the predicted run life of the pumping system.
1. A method for evaluating operation of an electric submersible pumping system, comprising:
obtaining actual sensor data from sensors monitoring operation of the electric submersible pumping system, wherein the actual sensor data comprises actual temperature data from a motor temperature sensor at a motor location;
using a physical model of the electric submersible pumping system to determine virtual sensor data, wherein the virtual sensor data comprises virtual temperature data from a virtual sensor at a location other than the motor location;
processing the actual sensor data and the virtual sensor data to determine an actual system state as a function of operating time;
generating a degradation model based on the processed actual sensor data and processed virtual sensor data, wherein the degradation model further comprises empirical test data;
applying the degradation model to the actual sensor data and the virtual sensor data to provide a predicting, by a predictor, of a time to failure of components of the electric submersible pumping system based on the degradation model, wherein the components comprise an electrical component and an elastomeric seal; and
adjusting operation of the electric submersible pumping system in response to the predictor of the time to failure of the components.
2. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein adjusting comprises adjusting operation of the electric submersible pumping system to a desired system state.
3. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein adjusting comprises adjusting operation of the electric submersible pumping system to a desired system state which enhances longevity of the electric submersible pumping system.
4. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein adjusting comprises automatically adjusting operation of the electric submersible pumping system to a desired system state via a control system.
5. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein using comprises using an optimizer engine for system identification in one of a black box, grey box or white box approach with respect to the physical model.
6. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on temperature to predict aging of at least a portion of a submersible motor.
7. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on water ingress to predict when a water front will detrimentally reach a submersible motor of the electric submersible pumping system.
8. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on temperature to predict aging and stress relaxation of the elastomeric seal of the electric submersible pumping system.
9. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on bearings to predict bearing failure within the electric submersible pumping system.
10. A method for improving a life expectancy of an electronic submersible pumping system, comprising:
obtaining actual sensor data from sensors monitoring operation of the electronic submersible pumping system, wherein the actual sensor data comprises actual temperature data from a motor temperature sensor at a motor location;
using a physical model of the electronic submersible pumping system to determine virtual sensor data, wherein the virtual sensor data comprises virtual temperature data from a virtual sensor at a location other than the motor location;
generating a degradation model based on the processed actual sensor data and processed, wherein the degradation model further comprises empirical test data;
applying the degradation model to the actual sensor data and the virtual sensor data to provide a predicting, by a predictor, of a time to failure of components of the electronic submersible pumping system based on the degradation model, wherein the components comprise an electrical component and an elastomeric seal;
processing the actual sensor data and the virtual sensor data to determine an actual system state of the electronic submersible pumping system as a function of operating time; and
adjusting operation of the electronic submersible pumping system from the actual system state to a desired system state which, based on the predictor, increases run life of the electronic submersible pumping system.
11. The method as recited m claim 10 , wherein adjusting comprises automatically adjusting via a control system.
12. The method as recited in claim 11 , wherein automatically adjusting comprises changing a motor speed of a submersible motor of the electronic submersible pumping system.
13. The method as recited in claim 11 , wherein automatically adjusting comprises changing a surface choke setting.
14. The method as recited in claim 10 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on temperature to predict aging of at least the electrical component.
15. The method as recited in claim 10 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on temperature to predict aging and stress relaxation of the elastomeric seal.
16. The method as recited in claim 15 , wherein adjusting comprises adjusting operation of the electronic submersible pumping system to a desired system state which enhances longevity of the electronic submersible pumping system.
17. The method as recited in claim 10 , wherein the predictor is based on actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on temperature to predict aging of at least the electrical component and to predict aging and stress relaxation of the elastomeric seal component.
18. The method as recited in claim 10 , wherein adjusting comprises adjusting operation of the electronic submersible pumping system to a desired system state enhances longevity of the electronic submersible pumping system.
19. The method as recited in claim 10 , wherein adjusting comprises automatically adjusting operation of the electronic submersible pumping system to a desired system state via a control system.
20. The method as recited in claim 10 , wherein the predictor uses actual sensor data and virtual sensor data on bearings to predict bearing failure within the electronic submersible pumping system.