Collision risk calculation method, collision risk calculation device, and computer-readable recording medium
A non-transitory computer-readable recording medium stores a collision risk calculation program that causes a computer to execute a process including: acquiring traveling information on a position and a speed of each of a first ship and a second ship; calculating a future traveling direction range of one or both of the first ship and the second ship based on a position of each of the first ship and the second ship and traveling information of a ship that sailed in a past; and calculating a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship based on the future traveling direction range.
1. A non-transitory computer-readable recording medium storing a collision risk calculation program that causes a computer to execute a process comprising:
acquiring traveling information on a position and a speed of each of a first ship and a second ship;
calculating a future traveling direction range of at least one of the first ship and the second ship based on a position of the at least one of the first ship and the second ship and traveling information of a ship that sailed in a past;
calculating a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship based on the future traveling direction range by calculating a risk of collision for each combination of cases where each of the first ship and the second ship sails a future course thereof; and
outputting information regarding ship-to-ship collision using the risk of collision.
2. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 1 , wherein the calculating a future traveling direction range includes calculating, for each region set on a target sea area, a future traveling direction range of one or both of the first ship and the second ship based on frequency distribution information of a traveling direction calculated from traveling information of a ship that sailed on the region in a past.
3. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 2 , wherein:
the calculating a future traveling direction range includes calculating a future course and a probability of occurrence of the future course based on the frequency distribution information, provided that traveling is executed from a position of each of the first ship and the second ship, in a direction of an approach angle dependent on a frequency distribution of the approach angle for a grid that corresponds to a position where each of the first ship and the second ship passes, with a probability dependent on a frequency distribution of the traveling direction; and
the calculating a risk of collision includes summing values provided by multiplying a risk of collision for a combination of each future course of the first ship and each future course of the second ship by each of a probability of occurrence of a future course of the first ship and a probability of occurrence of a future course of the second ship to calculate a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship.
4. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 2 , wherein the calculating a future traveling direction range includes calculating, for each region, a future traveling direction range of each of the first ship and the second ship based on frequency distribution information provided.
5. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 4 , wherein the calculating a future traveling direction range includes combining, for each region, frequency distribution information until frequency distribution information of a traveling direction with a predetermined number of data is obtained.
6. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 3 , wherein:
the calculating a future traveling direction range includes calculating, for each region, a probability of occurrence of each future course according to a speed based on frequency distribution information of a speed generated from traveling information of a ship that sailed on the region in a past; and
the calculating a risk of collision includes summing values provided by multiplying a risk of collision for each combination of each future course of the first ship according to a speed of the first ship and each future course of the second ship according to a speed of the second ship by each of a probability of occurrence of the future course of the first ship at the speed of the first ship and a probability of occurrence of the future course of the second ship at the speed of the second ship to calculate a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship.
7. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 1 , wherein:
the calculating a future traveling direction range includes calculating, for the first ship, a future traveling direction range based on traveling information of the ship that sailed in a past and calculating, for the second ship, a future course provided that a course is maintained; and
the calculating a risk of collision includes calculating a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship based on a future traveling direction range of the first ship and a future course of the second ship.
8. The non-transitory computer-readable recording medium according to claim 1 , wherein the information is a warning.
9. A collision risk calculation method comprising:
acquiring traveling information on a position and a speed of each of a first ship and a second ship, by a processor;
calculating a future traveling direction range of at least one of the first ship and the second ship based on a position of the at least one of the first ship and the second ship and traveling information of a ship that sailed in a past, by the processor;
calculating a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship based on the future traveling direction range by calculating a risk of collision for each combination of cases where each of the first ship and the second ship sails a future course thereof, by the processor; and
outputting information regarding ship-to-ship collision using the risk of collision.
10. A collision risk calculation device comprising:
a processor configured to:
acquire traveling information on a position and a speed of each of a first ship and a second ship;
calculate a future traveling direction range of at least one of the first ship and the second ship based on a position of the at least one of the first ship and the second ship and traveling information of a ship that sailed in a past;
calculating a risk of collision between the first ship and the second ship based on the future traveling direction range by calculating a risk of collision for each combination of cases where each of the first ship and the second ship sails a future course thereof; and
outputting information regarding ship-to-ship collision using the risk of collision.