Determining a REALFEEL seasonal index
A system and method for forecasting perceived transitions to the four annual seasons in geographic areas is disclosed. The perceived transitions are identified by comparing forecasted daily temperatures in each geographic area to thresholds generated based on normal daily temperatures in those geographic areas. The forecasted daily temperatures may be calculated using both forecasted temperatures and forecasted perceived ambient temperatures (calculated using both temperature and humidity, cloud cover, sun intensity, and/or wind speed).
1. A method of forecasting a transition from one of four annual seasons to a next annual season in a geographic area, the method comprising:
calculating normal daily temperatures in the geographic area for each day of a forecasting period using historical, weather data from at least one previous year for the geographic area;
smoothing the normal daily temperatures in the geographic area during the forecasting period using a cubic spline function;
determining a seasonal transition threshold by determining the smoothed normal daily temperature in the geographic area during a historic time period that includes a historic default day of transition from the one annual season to the next annual season;
identifying forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area during the forecasting period;
comparing the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area during the forecasting period with the seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area; and
identifying the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season in the geographic area by: (i) identifying a forecasted time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceed the seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area, and (ii) selecting a first day of the forecasted time period as the transition, wherein the first day is a future date, and wherein the first day corresponds to a day that begins the forecasted time period, and wherein the first day is before a median day of the forecasted time period; and
generating for display, in a user interface, a color-coded map of the geographic area, wherein the color-coding of the map is based on the forecasted time-period of the transition.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the forecasted daily temperatures are calculated based on both forecasted temperatures and forecasted ambient temperatures in the geographic area for each day of a forecasting period.
3. The method of claim 2 , wherein the forecasted ambient temperatures are calculated based on the forecasted temperatures and at least one of forecasted humidity, forecasted cloud cover, forecasted sun intensity, or forecasted wind speed.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the normal daily temperatures are calculated based on both temperatures and ambient temperatures in the geographic area for each day of a forecasting period.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the ambient temperatures are calculated based on the temperatures and at least one of humidity, cloud cover, sun intensity, or wind speed.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season is identified if the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceed the seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area for a threshold number of days during a predetermined time period.
7. The method of claim 6 , wherein the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season is identified as one of the days of the predetermined time period if the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceeds a seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area for the threshold number of days during the predetermined time period.
8. The method of claim 7 , wherein the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season is identified as a first day of the predetermined time period if the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceeds a seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area for the threshold number of days during the predetermined time period.
9. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the transition from Winter to Spring in the geographic area is identified by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or greater than a Spring seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area; and
the transition from Spring to Summer in the geographic area is identified by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or greater than Summer seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area.
10. The method of claim 1 , wherein:
the transition from Summer to Fall in the geographic area is identified by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or less than a Fall seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area; and
the transition from Fall to Winter in the geographic area is identified by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or less than a Winter seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area.
11. A system for forecasting a transition from one of four annual seasons to a next annual season in a geographic area, the system comprising:
a historical weather database that stores historical weather data for the geographic area;
a weather analysis unit that:
calculates normal daily temperatures in the geographic area for each day of a forecasting period using historical weather data from at least one previous year for the geographic area;
smooths the normal daily temperatures in the geographic area during the forecasting period using a cubic spline function;
determines a seasonal transition threshold by determining the smoothed normal daily temperature in the geographic area during a historic time period that includes a historic default day of transition from the one annual season to the next annual season;
identifies forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area during the forecasting period;
compares the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area during the forecasting period with the seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area; and
identifies the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season in the geographic area by: (i) identifying a forecasted time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceed the seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area, and (ii) selecting a first day of the forecasted time period as the transition, wherein the first day is a future date, and wherein the first day corresponds to a day that begins the forecasted time period, and wherein the first day is before a median day of the forecasted time period; and
a user interface that generates for display a color-coded map of the geographic area, wherein the color-coding of the map is based on the forecasted time-period of the transition.
12. The system of claim 11 , wherein the weather analysis unit calculates the forecasted daily temperatures based on both forecasted temperatures and forecasted ambient temperatures in the geographic area for each day of a forecasting period.
13. The system of claim 12 , wherein the forecasted ambient temperatures are calculated based on the forecasted temperatures and at least one of forecasted humidity, forecasted cloud cover, forecasted sun intensity, or forecasted wind speed.
14. The system of claim 11 , wherein the weather analysis unit calculates the normal daily temperatures based on both temperatures and ambient temperatures in the geographic area for each day of a forecasting period.
15. The system of claim 14 , wherein the ambient temperatures are calculated based on the temperatures and at least one of humidity, cloud cover, sun intensity, or wind speed.
16. The system of claim 11 , wherein the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season if the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceed the seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area for a threshold number of days during a predetermined time period.
17. The system of claim 16 , wherein the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season as one of the days of the predetermined time period if the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceeds a seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area for the threshold number of days during the predetermined time period.
18. The system of claim 17 , wherein the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from the one annual season to the next annual season as a first day of the predetermined time period if the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area meet or exceeds a seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area for the threshold number of days during the predetermined time period.
19. The system of claim 11 , wherein:
the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from Winter to Spring in the geographic area by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or greater than a Spring seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area; and
the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from Spring to Summer in the geographic area by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or greater than a Summer seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area.
20. The system of claim 11 , wherein:
the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from Summer to Fall in the geographic area by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or less than a Fall seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area; and
the weather analysis unit identifies the transition from Fall to Winter in the geographic area by identifying a time period during which the forecasted daily temperatures in the geographic area are equal to or less than a Winter seasonal transition threshold for the geographic area.