Operation management device, power generation plant, and operation management method for power generation plant

1. An operation management device comprising:

a state acquiring unit that acquires a measurement value of a first state amount indicating an operation state of a power generation plant;

an actual performance acquiring unit that acquires an actual value of the first state amount and an actual value of the second state amount of which a measurement value obtained by measurement has reliability lower than reliability of the measurement value of the first state amount, which are related to past operation of the power generation plant or another power generation plant different from the power generation plant;

a change amount calculating unit that calculates a first change amount which is a difference between the actual value of the first state amount and the measurement value of the first state amount; and

a change amount estimating unit that estimates a second change amount which is a change amount from the actual value of the second state amount related to the past operation of the power generation plant or the other power generation plant based on the first change amount;

a state updating unit that updates an estimation value of the second state amount based on the second change amount and the actual value of the second state amount; and

a managing unit that manage the operation state of the power generation plant based on the estimation value of the second state amount.

2. The operation management device according to claim 1 ,

wherein the state acquiring unit further acquires a measurement value of the second state amount, and

the managing unit manages the operation state of the power generation plant based on the measurement value of the second state amount.

3. The operation management device according to claim 1 , further comprising:

a measurement evaluating unit that evaluates a measurement value of the second state amount based on the estimation value of the second state amount,

wherein the managing unit manages the operation state of the power generation plant based on an evaluation result of the measurement value.

4. The operation management device according to claim 3 ,

wherein the measurement evaluating unit evaluates the measurement value of the second state amount by calculating an error value which is a difference between the estimation value of the second state amount and the measurement value of the second state amount, and

the managing unit manages the operation state of the power generation plant based on the error value of the second state amount.

5. The operation management device according to claim 1 ,

wherein the change amount estimating unit estimates the second change amount based on any one of a relational expression between the first change amount and the second change amount, a table showing a correspondence relationship between the first change amount and the second change amount, and any input value.

6. The operation management device according to claim 1 ,

wherein the first state amount includes an exhaust gas temperature, and

the second state amount includes intake air flow rate.

7. The operation management device according to claim 1 ,

wherein the managing unit manages the operation state of the power generation plant based on an estimation value of a third state amount which is a state amount different from the first state amount and the second state amount indicating the operation state of the power generation plant.

8. The operation management device according to claim 7 ,

wherein the third state amount includes a combustion temperature.

9. A power generation plant comprising the operation management device according to claim 1 .

10. An operation management method for a power generation plant, the method comprising the steps of:

acquiring measurement values of a first state amount indicating an operation state of the power generation plant or another power generation plant different from the power generation plant, and a second state amount of which a measurement value has reliability lower that the reliability of the first state amount;

acquiring an actual value of the first state amount and an actual value of the second state amount;

calculating a first change amount which is a difference between the actual value of the first state amount and the measurement value of the first state amount;

estimating a second change amount which is a change amount from the actual value of the second state amount related to the past operation of the power generation plant or the other power generation plant based on the first change amount;

adding the second change amount to the actual value of the second state amount, thereby estimating a second change amount at present time point;

estimating the second change amount based on the acquired measurement values of the first state amount;

updating an estimation value of the second state amount based on the second change amount and the actual value of the second state amount;

determining the state of the power plant based on the measurement value of the second state amount, and inputting the measurement value of the first state amount into a function in which the second state amount is estimated based on the first state amount, the function being defined for each state of the power generation plant, thereby updating an estimation value of the second state amount based on the measurement value of the first state amount, the second state amount indicating the operation state of the power generation plant, being a state amount different from the first state amount, and being a state amount of which a measurement value obtained by measurement has reliability lower than reliability of the measurement value of the first state amount; and

managing the operation state of the power generation plant based on the estimation value of the second state amount.

11. The operation management device according to claim 1 ,

wherein the state acquiring unit further acquires a measurement value of the second state amount, and

the managing unit manages the operation state of the power generation plant based on the measurement value of the second state amount.