Multi-layer machine learning validation of income values
The present disclosure relates generally to a calculated probability that an income value has been misrepresented in a risk analysis system. For example, the system may apply first data to a first machine learning (ML) model to determine a conservative income prediction associated with the data and apply second data to a second ML model to determine a probability that an overstatement of the income value would result in a change in an approval determination.
1 . A method for determining a probability of changing a determination for approval due to an overstatement of an income value, the method comprising:
receiving, by the computer system, application data by a user requesting access to an item or service, wherein the application data includes the income value, and wherein the application data corresponds with a user segment;
determining, by a computer system, a conservative income prediction associated. with the application data by applying a set of inputs to a first trained machine-learning (ML) model, wherein the set of inputs includes at least some of the application data;
determining an inflation score by comparing the income value with the conservative income prediction, wherein the inflation score is associated with an amount the income value is different than the conservative income prediction;
determining, by the computer system, a first decision likelihood score by applying the income value and the set of inputs to a second trained ML model;
determining, by the computer system, a second decision likelihood score by applying the conservative income prediction and the set of inputs to the second trained ML model; and
determining the probability of changing the determination for approval due to the overstatement of the income value by comparing the first decision likelihood score with the second decision likelihood score; and
providing, by the computer system, the probability of changing the determination for approval to a user device.
2 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the comparison of the first decision likelihood score with the second decision tolerance score includes subtracting the second decision likelihood score from the first decision likelihood score.
3 . The method of claim 2 , wherein the conservative income prediction is calculated using a quantile regression method or quantile random forest method.
4 . The method of claim 2 , wherein the application data does not include personally identifiable information (PII) of the user.
5 . A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing a plurality of instructions executable by one or more processors, the plurality of instructions when executed by the one or more processors cause the one or more processors to:
receive application data by a user requesting access to an item or service, wherein the application data includes the income value, and wherein the application data corresponds with a user segment;
determine a conservative income prediction associated with the application data by applying a set of inputs to a first trained machine-learning (ML) model, wherein the set of inputs includes at least some of the application data;
determine an inflation score by comparing the income value with the conservative income prediction, wherein the inflation score is associated with an amount the income value is different than the conservative income prediction;
determine a first decision likelihood score by applying the income value and the set of inputs to a second trained ML model;
determine a second decision likelihood score by applying the conservative income prediction and the set of inputs to the second trained ML model;
determine the probability of changing the determination for approval due to the overstatement of the income value by comparing the first decision likelihood score with the second decision likelihood score; and
provide the probability of changing the determination for approval to a user device.
6 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 5 , wherein the comparison of the first decision likelihood score with the second decision tolerance score includes subtracting the second decision likelihood score from the first decision likelihood score.
7 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 5 , wherein the conservative income prediction is calculated using a quantile regression method or quantile random forest method.
8 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 5 , wherein the application data does not include personally identifiable information (PII) of the user.
9 . A system comprising:
one or more processors; and
a non-transitory computer-readable medium including instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to:
receive application data by a user requesting access to an item or service, wherein the application data includes the income value, and wherein the application data corresponds with a user segment;
determine a conservative income prediction associated with the application data by applying a set of inputs to a first trained machine-learning (ML) model, wherein the set of inputs includes at least some of the application data;
determine an inflation score by comparing the income value with the conservative income prediction, wherein the inflation score is associated with an amount the income value is different than the conservative income prediction;
determine a first decision likelihood score by applying the income value and the set of inputs to a second trained ML model;
determine a second decision likelihood score by applying the conservative income prediction and the set of inputs to the second trained ML model;
determine the probability of changing the determination for approval due to the overstatement of the income value by comparing the first decision likelihood score with the second decision likelihood score; and
provide the probability of changing the determination for approval to a user device.
10 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the comparison of the first decision likelihood score with the second decision tolerance score includes subtracting the second decision likelihood score from the first decision likelihood score.
11 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the conservative income prediction is calculated using a quantile regression method or quantile random forest method.
12 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the application data does not include personally identifiable information (PII) of the user.