Using one-step ahead prediction to determine battery power setpoints

1. A predictive power control system comprising:

a battery configured to store and discharge electric power;

a battery power inverter configured to control an amount of the electric power stored to or discharged from the battery; and

a controller configured to:

generate a state-space model that represents a power output of the photovoltaic field,

identify parameters of the state-space model using an autoregressive moving average technique based on a history of values of the power output of the photovoltaic field,

predict a future power output of a photovoltaic fields based on the state-space model and the parameters of the state-space model, and

use the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field to determine a setpoint for the battery power inverter.

2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to determine the setpoint for the battery power inverter in order to comply with a ramp rate limit.

3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine a current state-of-charge of the battery; and

use the current state-of-charge of the battery to determine the setpoint for the battery power inverter.

4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is further configured to use a Kalman filter in combination with the state-space model to predict the future power output of the photovoltaic field at a next instant in time.

5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to:

use the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field to determine that a portion of the power output of the photovoltaic field must be stored or limited in order to comply with a ramp rate limit.

6. The system of claim 5 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery; and

generate a ramp rate control power setpoint based on whether the current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below the state-of-charge setpoint, the ramp rate control power setpoint indicating an amount of power to store in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

7. The system of claim 6 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine that the current state-of-charge of the battery is below the state-of-charge setpoint; and

generate the ramp rate control power setpoint based on an amount by which the state-of-charge setpoint exceeds the current state-of-charge of the battery.

8. The system of claim 6 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine that the current state-of-charge of the battery is above the state-of-charge setpoint or within a range of values defined by an upper setpoint limit and a lower setpoint limit.

9. The system of claim 6 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine a minimum amount of power required to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

10. The system of claim 6 , wherein the controller is configured to:

generate the ramp rate control power setpoint by setting the ramp rate control power setpoint to the determined minimum amount of power to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

11. A method for operating a battery power inverter, the method comprising:

generating a state-space model that represents a power output of the photovoltaic field;

identifying parameters of the state-space model using an autoregressive moving average technique based on a history of values of the power output of the photovoltaic field;

predicting a future power output of a photovoltaic field based on the state-space model and the parameters of the state-space model;

determining a setpoint for the battery power inverter using the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field; and

using the determined setpoint for the battery power inverter to control an amount of electric power stored or discharged from a battery by the battery power inverter.

12. The method of claim 11 , wherein determining the setpoint for the battery power inverter includes generating the setpoint to ensure compliance with a ramp rate limit.

13. The method of claim 11 , further comprising:

determining a current state-of-charge of the battery; and

using the current state-of-charge of the battery to determine the setpoint for the battery power inverter.

14. The method of claim 11 , wherein predicting the future power output of the photovoltaic field includes:

using a Kalman filter in combination with the state-space model to predict the future power output of the photovoltaic field at a next instant in time.

15. The method of claim 11 , further comprising:

using the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field to determine that a portion of the power output of the photovoltaic field must be stored or limited in order to comply with a ramp rate limit.

16. The method of claim 11 , further comprising:

determining whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery; and

generating a ramp rate control power setpoint based on whether the current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below the state-of-charge setpoint, the ramp rate control power setpoint indicating an amount of power to store in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

17. The method of claim 16 , wherein:

determining whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery includes determining that the current state-of-charge of the battery is below the state-of-charge setpoint.

18. The method of claim 16 , wherein:

generating the ramp rate control power setpoint comprises generating the ramp rate control power setpoint based on an amount by which the state-of-charge setpoint exceeds the current state-of-charge of the battery.

19. The method of claim 16 , wherein:

determining whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery includes determining that the current state-of-charge of the battery is above the state-of-charge setpoint or within a range of values defined by an upper setpoint limit and a lower setpoint limit.

20. The method of claim 16 , wherein:

generating the ramp rate control power setpoint includes:

determining a minimum amount of power required to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit; and

setting the ramp rate control power setpoint to the determined minimum amount of power to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.