System and method for performing wind forecasting
A system and method for performing novel wind forecasting that is particularly accurate for forecasting over short-term time periods, e.g., over the next 1-5 hours. Such wind forecasting is particularly advantageous in wind energy applications. The disclosed method is anchored in a robust physical model of the wind variability in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The disclosed method approach leverages a physical framework based on the unsteady dynamics of earth's atmosphere, and drives forecasting as a function of previously-observed atmospheric condition data observed at the same location for which a wind forecast is desired.
1. A computer-implemented method for performing wind forecasting using a computer-implemented wind forecasting system comprising a microprocessor, a memory operatively coupled to the microprocessor, and microprocessor-executable instructions for causing the wind forecasting system to perform the wind forecasting method, the method comprising:
storing, at the wind forecasting system, a model correlating large-scale atmospheric pressure forces to time-dependent horizontal wind speed and direction for a particular geographical region;
receiving, at the wind forecasting system, data reflecting a time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region during a preceding period of time, the preceding period of time preceding a reference time;
determining, at the wind forecasting system, a trend reflecting changes over time of large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the geographical region during the preceding period of time as a function of the time-dependent wind velocity vector, according to the model;
extrapolating, at the wind forecasting system, the trend in large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the preceding period of time to determine forecasted large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for a future period of time, the future period of time being a period of time succeeding the reference time;
determining, at the wind forecasting system, a forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region during the future period of time, as a function of the forecasted large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the future period of time, according to the model; and
transmitting, from the wind forecasting system, a signal for use in determining a navigation plan for an autonomous vehicle;
whereby operation of the autonomous vehicle is controlled at least in part by a short-term wind forecast determined by the wind forecasting system, and wherein the signal is used to determine the navigation plan for the autonomous vehicle as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region during the future period of time.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the autonomous vehicle is a flying drone vehicle, and wherein the navigation plan comprising an optimized flight plan.
3. The method of claim 2 , wherein the flying drone vehicle is configured to collect wind data during operation and to transmit the wind data to the wind forecasting system to improve performance of the wind forecasting system.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the autonomous vehicle is a land vehicle, and wherein the navigation plan is optimized for one of operation and performance.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the land vehicle is configured to collect wind data during operation and to transmit the wind data to the wind forecasting system to improve performance of the wind forecasting system.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises:
receiving at the wind forecasting system, from at least one air quality monitoring station, air quality data;
analyzing the air quality data; and
predicting future air quality changes in relation to at least one of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NO, NO2, SO2, O3, NH3, and non-biological or biological particles including sand, dust, soil particles, microbes, fungal spores, bacteria spores, viruses, pollen, mites, and remains of biological beings living and historical, as a function of the analyzed air quality data.
7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises:
receiving at the wind forecasting system, from at least one air quality monitoring station, air quality data;
analyzing the air quality data; and
predicting future natural phenomena in relation to at least one of rain, snow, storms, and fire, as a function of the analyzed air quality data.
8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises:
storing, at the wind forecasting system, a model of building energy consumption; and
predicting future building energy demand as a function of the model of building energy consumption and the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises:
storing, at the wind forecasting system, a model of powerline resilience; and
predicting future powerline failure as a function of the model of powerline resilience and the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
10. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises:
performing at least one of simulation, prediction and analysis of at least one of air and space transportation as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
11. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises:
performing at least one of simulation, prediction and analysis of at least one of a wind farm, a building, a powerline, a communication tower, a highway, and a railroad as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
12. A computer-implemented method for performing wind forecasting using a computer-implemented wind forecasting system comprising a microprocessor, a memory operatively coupled to the microprocessor, and microprocessor-executable instructions for causing the wind forecasting system to perform the wind forecasting method, the method comprising:
storing, at the wind forecasting system, a mathematical model expressing an imbalance among an atmospheric pressure gradient, Coriolis force and turbulent frictional stresses resulting from turbulent air flow mixing in earth's atmosphere for a particular geographical region to changes over time in Zonal and Meridional horizontal wind speeds for the geographical region;
receiving, at the wind forecasting system, data reflecting changes over time of Zonal and Meridional horizontal wind speeds for the geographical region during a preceding period of time, the preceding period of time preceding a reference time;
performing, at the wind forecasting system, an inverse application of the model to determine, at the wind forecasting system, a trend reflecting changes over time of large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the geographical region during the preceding period of time as a function of the changes over time in Zonal and Meridional horizontal wind speeds for the geographical region, according to the model, the trend including forecasted large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for a future period of time, the future period of time being a short-term period of time succeeding the reference time;
performing, at the wind forecasting system, a forward application of the model to determine, at the wind forecasting system, forecasted Zonal and Meridional horizontal wind speeds for the geographical region during the future period of time, as a function of the forecasted large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the future period of time, according to the model; and
transmitting, from the wind forecasting system, a signal for use in determining a navigation plan for an autonomous vehicle;
whereby operation of the autonomous vehicle is controlled at least in part by a short-term wind forecast determined by the wind forecasting system, and wherein the signal is used to determine the navigation plan for the autonomous vehicle as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region during the future period of time.
13. The method of claim 12 , wherein the autonomous vehicle is a flying drone vehicle, and wherein the navigation plan comprising an optimized flight plan.
14. The method of claim 13 , wherein the flying drone vehicle is configured to collect wind data during operation and to transmit the wind data to the wind forecasting system to improve performance of the wind forecasting system.
15. The method of claim 12 , wherein the autonomous vehicle is a land vehicle, and wherein the navigation plan is optimized for one of operation and performance.
16. The method of claim 15 , wherein the land vehicle is configured to collect wind data during operation and to transmit the wind data to the wind forecasting system to improve performance of the wind forecasting system.
17. The method of claim 12 , wherein the method further comprises:
receiving at the wind forecasting system, from at least one air quality monitoring station, air quality data;
analyzing the air quality data; and
predicting future air quality changes in relation to at least one of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NO, NO2, SO2, O3, NH3, and non-biological or biological particles including sand, dust, soil particles, microbes, fungal spores, bacteria spores, viruses, pollen, mites, and remains of biological beings living and historical, as a function of the analyzed air quality data.
18. The method of claim 12 , wherein the method further comprises:
receiving at the wind forecasting system, from at least one air quality monitoring station, air quality data;
analyzing the air quality data; and
predicting future natural phenomena in relation to at least one of rain, snow, storms, and fire, as a function of the analyzed air quality data.
19. The method of claim 12 , wherein the method further comprises:
storing, at the wind forecasting system, a model of building energy consumption; and
predicting future building energy demand as a function of the model of building energy consumption and the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
20. The method of claim 12 , wherein the method further comprises:
storing, at the wind forecasting system, a model of powerline resilience; and
predicting future powerline failure as a function of the model of powerline resilience and the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
21. The method of claim 12 , wherein the method further comprises:
performing at least one of simulation, prediction and analysis of at least one of air and space transportation as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
22. The method of claim 12 , wherein the method further comprises:
performing at least one of simulation, prediction and analysis of at least one of a wind farm, a building, a powerline, a communication tower, a highway, and a railroad as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region.
23. A wind forecasting system for providing a wind forecast, the system comprising:
a processor;
a memory operably connected to the processor for storing instructions; and
instructions stored in the memory for causing the system to:
store, in the memory, a physical model of time-varying wind flow in earth's atmosphere, the model correlating atmospheric pressure forces to wind velocities over time;
receive data reflecting changes over time of wind speeds for a particular geographical region during a preceding period of time, the preceding period of time preceding a reference time;
perform an inverse application of the model to determine a trend reflecting changes over time of large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the geographical region during the preceding period of time as a function of the changes over time in wind velocities for the geographical region;
extrapolate, at the wind forecasting system, the trend to determine forecasted large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the geographical region during a future period of time, the future period of time being a period of time succeeding the reference time;
perform a forward application of the model to determine, at the wind forecasting system, forecasted wind speeds and directions for the geographical region during the future period of time, as a function of the forecasted large-scale atmospheric pressure forces for the future period of time; and
transmit, from the wind forecasting system, a signal for use in one of determining a navigation plan for an autonomous vehicle, controlling operation of a vehicle, controlling operation of a power generation system, controlling operation of a power transmission system, and controlling operation of an energy consumption system external to the wind forecasting system;
whereby operation of one of the autonomous vehicle, the vehicle, the power operation system, the power transmission system, and the energy consumption system is controlled at least in part by a short-term wind forecast determined by the wind forecasting system as a function of the forecasted time-dependent horizontal wind velocity vector for the geographical region during the future period of time.