System and method to predict value and timing of drilling operational parameters
A method and a system for using machine learning technologies to predict the value and timing of operational parameters. These predictions are then used to identify the risk of certain well incidents to occur, and if so notify responsible personnel thereof as to allow preventive actions to be taken.
1. A method for predicting an event in oilfield operations, the method comprising:
receiving time-based data from a real-time data system including a sensor;
filtering the time-based data from the sensor;
identifying an operation state based on the time-based data from the sensor;
generating, using a machine learning model, a prediction based on the filtered time-based data from the sensor, wherein the prediction includes a predicted future time and a predicted value;
visualizing on a display the predicted future time and the predicted value;
comparing the prediction with a trigger threshold to predict when the event will occur;
generating a warning that the event may happen when the prediction satisfies the trigger threshold; and
intervening with a mitigating action in the oilfield operations to avoid the event.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the sensor is coupled to a portion of an oil well, and the sensor is selected from the group of a hook load sensor, a torque sensor, mud density input sensor, a mud flow input sensor, a pressure sensor, a RPM sensor, an Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD) sensor, a Rate of Penetration (ROP) sensor, and a bit depth sensor.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the real-time data system includes wellbore trajectory data from real time sensors or planned data.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the step of receiving time-based data is at a processor remote from the oil well.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the operation state is selected from the group of a drilling state, a tripping-in state, a tripping-out state, a reaming state, a sliding state, and a circulating state.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the operation state is a circulating state and a start time of the operation state and an end time of the operation state are identified as the time when a flow-in sensor value is above a threshold value.
7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the operation state is a drilling state, and a start time of the operation state and an end time of the operation state are identified as the time of a direction change of the block position and when hook load is above a threshold value.
8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the operation state is a drilling state, and a start time of the operation state is identified as the first sign change of the derivative of the hook load or torque after a maximum value.
9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the operation state is a drilling state, and a start time of the operation state is identified as the first hook load or torque maximum value after a predetermined change in block position value, and an end time of the operation state is identified as a drop in hook load or torque in combination with upward movement of the block position.
10. The method of claim 6 , wherein an input to the machine learning model is a minimum sensor value after the start of the operation state.
11. The method of claim 6 , wherein an input to the machine learning model is a maximum sensor value after the start of the operation state.
12. The method of claim 6 , wherein an input to the machine learning model is an average sensor value for a period of time after the start of the operation state.
13. The method of claim 1 , wherein the machine learning model is a first machine learning model and the prediction is a first prediction, and
wherein the method further includes generating, using a second machine learning model, a second prediction based on the filtered time-based data from the sensor, wherein the second prediction includes a time and a value; and
wherein the method further includes determining a preferred prediction from the first prediction and the second prediction and a corresponding preferred machine learning model from the first machine learning model and the second machine learning model.
14. The method of claim 13 , wherein the preferred prediction is based on the operational state.
15. The method of claim 13 , wherein the preferred machine learning model calculates Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD) values.
16. The method claim 13 , wherein the preferred machine learning model predicts Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD) values based on filtered Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD) sensor values.
17. The method of claim 13 , wherein the preferred machine learning model predicts standpipe pressure and mud flow input values.
18. The method of claim 1 , wherein the prediction is stored in a database.
19. The method of claim 1 , wherein the comparison results between the trigger threshold and the prediction are stored in a database.
20. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method assesses future drilling risks by the use of a success/failure model.
21. A system for predicting an event in oilfield operations comprising:
a real time data system including at least one sensor associated with at least one oil well;
a display remote from the oil well;
an electronic processor and a memory, the memory storing instructions that when executed by the electronic processor configure the electronic processor to:
receive data from the real time data system;
identify an operation state based on the data received from the real time data system;
filter the data received from the real time data system;
generate a future time prediction and a value prediction using a machine learning model based on the filtered data;
display the future time prediction and the value prediction on the display;
compare the future time prediction and the value prediction with a trigger threshold to predict when the event will occur; and
display on the display a warning that the event may happen when the prediction satisfies the trigger threshold.
22. The system of claim 21 , wherein the system further includes a network through which the data from the real time data system is received by the electronic processor.
23. The system of claim 21 , further including a database and wherein the time prediction, the value prediction, and the comparison with the trigger threshold are stored in the database.
24. The system of claim 21 , wherein the electronic processor is configured to receive data from the real time data system data from at least at least two sensors.
25. The system of claim 21 , wherein the time prediction is a first time prediction, the value prediction is a first value predication, and the machine learning model is a first machine learning model, and wherein the electronic processor is configured to generate a second time prediction and a second value prediction using a second machine learning model based on the filtered data.
26. The system of claim 25 , wherein the electronic processor is configured to select a preferred prediction.