Demand response of loads having thermal reserves
Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.
1. A system for managing electrical demand corresponding to a plurality of electrical loads and a power generation source each coupled to a power grid, wherein each of the plurality of electrical loads is coupled to a corresponding thermal reserve such that operation of the electrical load increases the corresponding thermal reserve, the system comprising:
a controller arranged at a first one of the plurality of electrical loads, the controller configured to:
store past power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads,
generate a device model based upon the past power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads and the corresponding thermal reserve, and predict a future thermal reserve of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads based on the device model,
send the future thermal reserve to a centralized control,
receive a demand response signal based on the future thermal reserve from the centralized control, and
selectively turn the first one of the plurality of electrical loads on or off based on the demand response signal.
2. The system of claim 1 , further comprising the centralized control, and wherein the centralized control is configured to
rank the plurality of electrical loads as a function of the corresponding future thermal reserves, and send the demand response signal to the first one of the plurality of electrical loads based upon the ranking of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads.
3. The system of claim 2 , wherein the controller is further configured to: apply a rolling average filter to power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads on a first day to generate an averaged power data set; combine the averaged power data set with a historical data set corresponding to a second day to generate an updated daily average power pattern, wherein the first day and the second day have at least one factor in common; and store the updated daily average power pattern.
4. The system of claim 3 , wherein the factor comprises a day of the week, and the historical data set corresponding to the second day is a data set of power consumption selected according to the day of the week.
5. The system of claim 3 , wherein the factor comprises one or more of temperature, humidity, and cloud cover, and the historical data set corresponding to the second day is a data set of power consumption selected based on one or more of temperature, humidity, and cloud cover on the second day.
6. The system of claim 2 , wherein the first one of the plurality of electrical loads is associated with an observable thermal reserve.
7. The system of claim 6 , wherein the first one of the plurality of electrical loads is a water heater and the corresponding thermal reserve is a tank of heated water having an observable temperature.
8. The system of claim 2 , wherein the first one of the plurality of electrical loads is an air conditioning system and the thermal reserve is a cooled air mass having an observable temperature.
9. The system of claim 2 , wherein the controller is further configured to determine an operating state of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads.
10. The system of claim 9 , wherein the controller is further configured to operate the first one of the plurality of electrical loads in all of three states including an idling state, a modified operation state, and an opt-out state.
11. The system of claim 10 , wherein the controller is further configured to apply an opt-out state when a thermal reserve associated with the first one of the plurality of electrical loads is not within a predefined temperature band.
12. The system of claim 2 , wherein the centralized control is on a cloud platform.
13. The system of claim 2 , wherein the centralized control is on one of a server, a mobile device, and a utility.
14. The system of claim 2 , wherein the centralized control is further configured to: acquire current power price information associated with one of additional power generation and purchase of power, and to determine which of the plurality of electrical loads to selectively turn on or off based on the current power price information.
15. The system of claim 1 , wherein the first one of the plurality of electrical loads is a type of load, and the controller is further configured to provide a signal to the centralized control based on the type of load.
16. A system comprising:
a local controller arranged at a first one of a plurality of electrical loads that each have a corresponding thermal reserve, the local controller configured to:
store past power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads,
generate a device model based upon the past power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads and the corresponding thermal reserve,
predict a future thermal reserve of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads based on the device model,
send the future thermal reserve to a centralized control,
receive a demand response signal based on the future thermal reserve from the centralized control, and
selectively turn the first one of the plurality of electrical loads on or off based on the demand response signal.
17. The system of claim 16 , wherein the centralized control is on a cloud platform.
18. The system of claim 16 , wherein the centralized control is on one of a server, a mobile device, and a utility.
19. The system of claim 16 , further comprising the centralized control, and wherein the centralized control is configured to rank the plurality of electrical loads as a function of one or more of predicted future thermal reserves and an urgency of the thermal reserve; and send the demand response signal to the first one of the plurality of electrical loads based upon the ranking of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads.
20. A system comprising:
a local controller arranged at a first one of a plurality of electrical loads that each have a corresponding thermal reserve, the local controller comprising:
storage means for storing past power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads,
a load statistical model configured to: generate a device model based upon the past power usage of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads and the corresponding thermal reserve, and predict a future thermal reserve of the first one of the plurality of electrical loads based on the device model, and
a real-time control module configured to send the future thermal reserve to a centralized control, to receive a demand response signal based on the future thermal reserve from the centralized control, and to selectively turn the first one of the plurality of electrical loads on or off based on the demand response signal.