Hyper-swarm method and system for collaborative forecasting
Systems and methods for amplifying the intelligence of networked human populations, maximizing the accuracy of collaborative forecasts and group insights. This includes systems and methods for sending and presenting a forecasting query for a future event to a plurality of participants, each using a networked computing device, the forecasting query describing a future event to be collaboratively predicted by the population of human participants. An initial forecast response is collected from each participant and analyzed by a central server. A plurality of unique overlapping subsets of responses are determined by the server. Unique overlapping subsets of unique initial forecast responses are then displayed, at substantially the same time, on each computing device. A second forecast response is collected from each participant and a final forecast is determined.
1. A method for computer-moderated collaborative forecasting among a population of human participants using a plurality of networked computing devices, the method comprising:
providing a collaboration server running a collaboration application, the collaboration server in communication with the plurality of networked computing devices, each networked computing device associated with one participant;
providing a local forecasting application on each networked computing device, the local forecasting application configured for displaying forecasting information to and collecting forecasting input from the one participant associated with that networked computing device; and
enabling through communication between the collaboration application running on the collaboration server and the local forecasting application running on each of the plurality of networked computing devices, the following sequential steps:
send a forecasting query to the plurality of networked computing devices, the forecasting query describing a future event to be collaboratively predicted by the population of human participants;
present a representation of the forecasting query to each participant on a display of the networked computing device associated with that participant;
collect a set of initial forecast responses such that each initial forecast response in the set is provided by a different participant of the population of human participants via a user interface on the computing device associated with that participant;
store each initial forecast response in a unique location in a data structure in a memory such that each initial forecast response is associated with the participant the response was collected from;
associate, for each participant, a unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses, wherein each subset represents initial forecast responses collected from a unique subset of participants and wherein at least one initial forecast response in each unique subset is included in at least one other unique subset;
display the unique subset of initial forecast responses associated with each participant on the networked computing device associated with that participant, thereby enabling each participant to consider initial forecast responses provided by a different unique subset of human participants selected from the population of human participants;
after displaying the unique subset of initial forecast responses to each participant, collect an updated forecast response from each participant via the user interface on the networked computing device associated with that participant;
store each updated forecast response in a memory such that each updated forecast response is associated with the participant the updated forecast response was collected from; and
compute a final collaborative forecast based at least in part upon the set of initial forecast responses and the set of updated forecast responses.
2. The method of claim 1 wherein computing the final collaborative forecasting includes assessing a change, for each participant, between the initial forecast response they provided and the updated forecast response they provided.
3. The method of claim 1 further including the step of assigning a unique sub-population to each participant, wherein each sub-population is a unique subset of the population of human participants that shares at least one participant with at least one other sub-population.
4. The method of claim 3 wherein the subset of initial forecast responses for each of the plurality of participants consists of the initial forecast responses of the sub-population assigned to that participant.
5. The method of claim 1 wherein the steps of presenting the forecast query, collecting updated forecast responses, and storing the set of collected responses are repeated multiple times prior to the step of computing the final collaborative forecast, wherein a plurality of sets of updated forecast responses are stored over a time period, and wherein the final collaborative forecast is based at least in part upon the plurality of sets of updated forecast responses stored over the time period.
6. The method of claim 1 further comprising, during the step of collecting the updated forecast responses, of displaying of a countdown timer on the display associated with each participant indicating an amount of time left for collaborative forecasting, the countdown timer for each participant substantially synchronized.
7. The method of claim 1 wherein the display of the subset of initial forecast responses includes a graphical histogram including the subset of initial forecast responses.
8. The method of claim 1 wherein the display of the unique subset of initial forecast responses includes a set of graphical dots wherein each graphical dot represents one of the unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses.
9. The method of claim 1 further comprising, during displaying of the unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses, also displaying to each participant a graphical indicator showing the respective participant's current forecast response in relation to the displayed unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses.
10. A system for conducting computer-moderated collaborative forecasting among a population of human participants using a plurality of networked computing devices, comprising:
a collaboration server including a processor running a collaboration application, the collaboration server in communication with the plurality of networked computing devices, each networked computing device associated with one participant; and
a local forecasting application on each networked computing device, the local forecasting application configured to display forecasting information to and collect forecasting input from the one participant associated with that networked computing device, wherein the system is enabled through communication between the collaboration application running on the collaboration server and the local forecasting application running on each of the plurality of networked computing devices, to perform the following sequential steps:
send a forecasting query to the plurality of networked computing devices, the forecasting query describing a future event to be collaboratively predicted by the population of human participants;
present a representation of the forecasting query to each participant on a display of the networked computing device associated with that participant;
collect a set of initial forecast responses such that each initial forecast response in the set is provided by a different participant of the population of human participants via a user interface on the networked computing device associated with that participant;
store each initial forecast response in a unique location in a data structure in a memory such that each initial forecast response is associated with the participant the response was collected from;
associate, for each participant, a unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses, wherein each subset represents initial forecast responses collected from a unique subset of participants and wherein at least one initial forecast response in each unique subset is included in at least one other unique subset;
display the unique subset of initial forecast responses associated with each participant on the networked computing device associated with that participant, thereby enabling each participant to consider initial forecast responses provided by a different unique subset of human participants selected from the population of human participants;
after displaying the unique subset of initial forecast responses to each participant, collect an updated forecast response from each participant via the user interface on the networked computing device associated with that participant;
store each updated forecast response in a memory such that each updated forecast response is associated with the participant the updated forecast response was collected from; and
compute a final collaborative forecast based at least in part upon the set of initial forecast responses and the set of updated forecast responses.
11. The system of claim 10 wherein computing the final collaborative forecasting includes assessing a change, for each participant, between the initial forecast response they provided and the updated forecast response they provided.
12. The system of claim 10 further including the step of assigning a unique sub-population to each participant, wherein each sub-population is a unique subset of the population of human participants that shares at least one participant with at least one other sub-population.
13. The system of claim 12 wherein the subset of initial forecast responses for each of the plurality of participants consists of the initial forecast responses of the sub-population assigned to that participant.
14. The system of claim 10 wherein the steps of presenting the forecast query, collecting updated forecast responses, and storing the set of collected responses are repeated multiple times prior to the step of computing the final collaborative forecast, wherein a plurality of sets of updated forecast responses are stored over a time period, and wherein the final collaborative forecast is based at least in part upon the plurality of sets of updated forecast responses stored over the time period.
15. The system of claim 10 further comprising, during the step of collecting the updated forecast responses, of displaying of a countdown timer on the display associated with each participant indicating an amount of time left for collaborative forecasting, the countdown timer for each participant substantially synchronized.
16. The system of claim 10 wherein the display of the subset of initial forecast responses includes a graphical histogram including the subset of initial forecast responses.
17. The system of claim 10 wherein the display of the unique subset of initial forecast responses includes a set of graphical dots wherein each graphical dot represents one of the unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses.
18. The system of claim 10 further comprising, during displaying of the unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses, also displaying to each participant a graphical indicator showing the respective participant's current forecast response in relation to the displayed unique subset of the set of initial forecast responses.