Inventory planning system and method for short expiration goods
An inventory planning system and an inventory planning method for short expiration goods are provided. The inventory planning system includes: a demand forecast model configured to provide a future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods according to an expiration period information, a promotion information and a historical sales information of at least one short expiration goods; a promotion forecast model configured to provide a future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods according to the expiration period information, the promotion information and the historical sales information of the at least one short expiration goods; and an inventory planning model configured to provide a purchase quantity recommendation of the at least one short expiration goods according to a current stock, the future sales prediction and the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods.
1. An inventory planning system for short expiration goods, the inventory planning system being executed by a computing system, the inventory planning system including:
a demand forecast model configured to provide a future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods according to an expiration period information, a promotion information and a historical sales information of at least one short expiration goods, wherein the expiration period information, the promotion information and the historical sales information are stored in the computing system;
a promotion forecast model configured to provide a future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods according to the expiration period information, the promotion information and the historical sales information of the at least one short expiration goods, wherein the promotion forecast model is a neural network model; and
an inventory planning model configured to provide a purchase quantity recommendation of the at least one short expiration goods according to a current stock, the future sales prediction and the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods.
2. The inventory planning system for short expiration goods according to claim 1 , wherein, the demand forecast model estimates a joint demand distribution using a data-driven method to provide the future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods.
3. The inventory planning system for short expiration goods according to claim 1 , wherein, the promotion forecast model simulates sales status under a plurality of promotion statuses using a mathematic method to provide the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods.
4. The inventory planning system for short expiration goods according to claim 1 , wherein, the inventory planning model further provides the purchase quantity recommendation of the at least one short expiration goods according to a to-be-expired quantity and a safe stock of the short expiration goods.
5. The inventory planning system for short expiration goods according to claim 1 , wherein, the demand forecast model estimates a sales covariant association between a plurality of goods categories to provide the future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods.
6. The inventory planning system for short expiration goods according to claim 4 , wherein,
according to the future sales prediction and the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods, and an adjustable parameter, the inventory planning model provides a future sales under expiration promotions by a following formula:
P=α*PD +(1−α)* DF
P represents the future sales, a represents the adjustable parameter whose value is between 0˜1, PD represents the future sales prediction, DF represents the future promotions sales.
7. The inventory planning system for short expiration goods according to claim 6 , wherein,
according to the current stock, the to-be-expired quantity and the safe stock of the short expiration goods, the inventory planning model estimates the purchase quantity recommendation by a following formula:
Final_Order= P+S stock+ P stock−stock,
wherein, Final_Order represents the purchase quantity recommendation, P represents the future sales, Pstock represents the to-be-expired quantity of the short expiration goods, Sstock represents the safe stock, and stock represents the current stock.
8. An inventory planning method for short expiration goods, executed by a computing system, the inventory planning method comprising:
providing a future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods according to an expiration period information, a promotion information and a historical sales information of at least one short expiration goods, wherein the expiration period information, the promotion information and the historical sales information are stored in the computing system;
providing a future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods according to the expiration period information, the promotion information and the historical sales information of the at least one short expiration goods, wherein the promotion forecast model is a neural network model; and
providing a purchase quantity recommendation of the at least one short expiration goods according to a current stock, the future sales prediction and the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods.
9. The inventory planning method for short expiration goods according to claim 8 , wherein a joint demand distribution is estimated using a data-driven method to provide the future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods.
10. The inventory planning method for short expiration goods according to claim 8 , wherein, sales status under a plurality of promotion statuses are simulated using a mathematic method to provide the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods.
11. The inventory planning method for short expiration goods according to claim 8 , wherein, the purchase quantity recommendation of the at least one short expiration goods is further provided according to a to-be-expired quantity and a safe stock of the short expiration goods.
12. The inventory planning method for short expiration goods according to claim 8 , wherein, a sales covariant association between a plurality of goods categories is estimated to provide the future sales prediction of the at least one short expiration goods.
13. The inventory planning method for short expiration goods according to claim 12 , wherein,
according to the future sales prediction and the future promotions sales of the at least one short expiration goods, and an adjustable parameter, a future sales under expiration promotions is provided by a following formula:
P=α*PD +(1−α)* DF
P represents the future sales, a represents the adjustable parameter whose value is between 0˜1, PD represents the future sales prediction, DF represents the future promotions sales.
14. The inventory planning method for short expiration goods according to claim 13 , wherein,
according to the current stock, the to-be-expired quantity and the safe stock of the short expiration goods, the purchase quantity recommendation is estimated by a following formula:
Final_Order= P+S stock+ P stock−stock,
wherein, Final_Order represents the purchase quantity recommendation, P represents the future sales, Pstock represents the to-be-expired quantity of the short expiration goods, Sstock represents the safe stock, and stock represents the current stock.