System and method for econometrically-based grant management
View Patent ↗Systems and methods for grant management are provided. In one example, a computer system tracks grant proposals, calculates a conversion ratio that determines the percentage of grant proposals that are converted into successes and projects future research funding based on past successes that remain active and projected proposal volume and the conversion ratios.
1. A computer system for managing a research portfolio, the computer system comprising:
a memory;
a processor coupled to the memory;
an interface executed by the processor and configured to receive information describing a plurality of grant proposals that each have a start date and a distribution schedule that specifies at least one award; and
a forecast engine executed by the processor and configured to:
process the information to determine a lifetime value for a subset of the plurality of grant proposals, the subset having a start date within a predetermined period; and
predict a currency amount of grant successes for the predetermined period based on the lifetime value and a conversion ratio.
2. The computer system according to claim 1 , wherein the forecast engine is configured to determine the conversion ratio based on a portion of the information that describes a past subset of the plurality of grant proposals that each have a start date prior to the predetermined period and information describing a plurality of grant successes that were produced by the past subset.
3. The computer system according to claim 2 , wherein members of the subset share at least one common characteristic selected from the group comprising an investigator, a class of investigator, a class of sponsor, a sector, a grant proposal type and a funding type.
4. The computer system according to claim 3 , wherein the at least one common characteristic includes a sector, class of sponsor and grant proposal type.
5. The computer system according to claim 3 , wherein the forecast engine is further configured to distribute the currency amount of grant successes according to a distribution schedule of the subset.
6. The computer system according to claim 5 , wherein the distribution schedule of the subset spans a plurality of periods including the predetermined period.
7. The computer system according to claim 5 , wherein the forecast engine is configured to determine the distribution schedule of the subset using respective distribution schedules associated with members of the subset.
8. The computer system according to claim 7 , wherein the distribution schedule of the subset specifies a weighted average duration of the respective individual durations.
9. The computer system according to claim 8 , wherein the distribution schedule to specifies a straight-line distribution of substantially equal distribution amounts.
10. The computer system according to claim 8 , wherein the distribution schedule specifies an experienced-based distribution that is empirically derived from the plurality of grant successes.
11. The computer system according to claim 1 , wherein the forecast engine is configured to predict the currency amount of grant successes within the predetermined period based on at least a portion of the lifetime value and actual grant successes with awards scheduled for distribution during the predetermined period.
12. The computer system according to claim 11 , wherein the forecast engine is configured to adjust the at least a portion of the lifetime value to reflect additional grant proposals to be evaluated within the predetermined period.
13. The computer system according to claim 12 , wherein the forecast engine is configured to predict the additional grant proposals based on at least one of a historical extrapolation of period to date grant proposals, a historical extension of grant proposals having a start date prior to the predetermined period combined with actual period to date proposals and a previous maximum of grant proposals for prior periods.
14. The computer system according to claim 1 , wherein the interface is configured to receive information indicating an association between a grade and the lifetime value and the forecast engine is configured to adjust, responsive to receiving the grade, the conversion ratio using the grade prior to predicting the currency amount of grant successes.
15. The computer system according to claim 14 , wherein the grade indicates past successes of an investigator associated with the lifetime value.
16. The computer system according to claim 14 , wherein the grade indicates a percentage of the lifetime value due to grant proposals that are original submissions.
17. The computer system according to claim 1 , wherein the at least one award is a plurality of awards and the lifetime value is a sum of the plurality of awards.
18. The computer system according to claim 1 , wherein the predetermined period is one year.
19. A computer implemented method for managing a research portfolio using a computer system, the method comprising:
receiving, via an interface included in the computer system, information describing a plurality of grant proposals that each have a start date and a distribution schedule that specifies at least one award;
processing, by a forecast engine included in the computer system, the information to determine a lifetime value for a subset of the plurality of grant proposals, the subset having a start date within a predetermined period; and
predicting, by the forecast engine included in the computer system, a currency amount of grant successes for the predetermined period based on the lifetime value and a conversion ratio.
20. The method according to claim 19 , wherein predicting the amount of grant successes includes determining the conversion ratio based on a portion of the information that describes a past subset of the plurality of grant proposals that each have a start date prior to the predetermined period and information describing a plurality of grant successes that were produced by the past subset.
21. The method according to claim 19 , further comprising predicting the currency amount of grant successes within the predetermined period based on at least a portion of the lifetime value and actual grant successes with awards scheduled for distribution during the predetermined period.
22. A non-transitory computer readable medium having stored thereon sequences of instruction for managing a research portfolio including instructions that will cause at least one processor to:
receive information describing a plurality of grant proposals that each have a start date and a distribution schedule that specifies at least one award;
determine a lifetime value for a subset of the plurality of grant proposals, the subset having a start date within a predetermined period; and
predict a currency amount of grant successes for the predetermined period based on the lifetime value and a conversion ratio.
23. The non-transitory computer readable medium according to claim 22 , wherein the sequences of instruction include instructions that will cause the at least one processor to determine the conversion ratio based on a portion of the information that describes a past subset of the plurality of grant proposals that each have a start date prior to the predetermined period and information describing a plurality of grant successes that were produced by the past subset.
24. The non-transitory computer readable medium according to claim 22 , wherein the sequences of instruction include instructions that will further cause the at least one processor to predict the currency amount of grant successes within the predetermined period based on at least a portion of the lifetime value and actual grant successes with awards scheduled for distribution during the predetermined period.