System and method for forecasting contact volume
Various embodiments of a planning and execution process used to forecast contact volumes that will occur over the course of a season and determine resources necessary to handle the contact volumes are disclosed. The planning and execution process may be used to determine staffing resources necessary to service contact volumes across a plurality of support channels. The contact volume forecast may be continually updated over the course of the season, and different models may be used to generate the contact volume forecast at different times during the season.
1. A method to perform contact volume forecasting for a tax software support center, the method comprising:
performing, by a computer processor, an initial contact volume forecast for a tax season using a time series model based on historical contact volume from previous tax seasons, wherein the tax season begins on a predetermined date for receipt of tax forms and the tax season ends on a deadline set by a tax authority; and
revising, by the computer processor, the initial contact volume forecast during the tax season, wherein revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises:
receiving information indicating contact volume data for a pre-determined historic time period;
determining a first predicted contact volume using the time series model for the pre-determined historic time period;
determining a second predicted contact volume using a trend-based model for the pre-determined historic time period based on a trend of receiving W-2 forms by taxpayers;
determining the trend-based model as predicting a most accurate contact volume for the pre-determined historic time period by at least comparing the first predicted contact volume, the second predicted contact volume, and information indicating the contact volume for the pre-determined historic time period; and
revising the initial contact volume forecast based at least in part on a future contact volume predicted by the trend-based model.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein said revising the initial contact volume forecast as the tax season progresses is performed on at least one selected from a group consisting of a daily basis, a weekly basis, and a monthly basis.
3. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
determining initial staffing requirements based on the initial contact volume forecast;
wherein said revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises revising the staffing requirements based on a revised contact volume forecast.
4. The method of claim 1 ,
wherein said performing the initial contact volume forecast comprises performing an individual contact volume forecast for each of a plurality of contact channels, and
wherein said revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises revising the individual contact volume forecast for each of the plurality of contact channels.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the plurality of contact channels include two or more of: a telephone contact channel, an email contact channel, and an electronic chat contact channel.
6. A system to perform contact volume forecasting for a tax software support center, the system comprising:
a memory storing program instructions;
a processor coupled to the memory, wherein the processor is operable to execute the program instructions to implement:
performing an initial contact volume forecast for a tax season using a time series model based on historical contact volume from previous tax seasons, wherein the tax season begins on a predetermined date for receipt of tax forms and the tax season ends on a tax deadline set by a tax authority; and
revising the initial contact volume forecast during the tax season, wherein revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises:
receiving information indicating contact volume data for a pre-determined historic time period;
determining a first predicted contact volume using the time series model for the pre-determined historic time period;
determining a second predicted contact volume using a trend-based model for the pre-determined historic time period based on a trend of receiving W-2 forms by taxpayers;
determining the trend-based model as predicting a most accurate contact volume for the pre-determined historic time period by at least comparing the first predicted contact volume, the second predicted contact volume, and information indicating the contact volume data for the pre-determined historic time period; and
revising the initial contact volume forecast based at least in part on a future contact volume predicted by the trend-based model.
7. The system of claim 6 , wherein said revising the initial contact volume forecast as the tax season progresses is performed on at least one selected from a group consisting of a daily basis, a weekly basis, and a monthly basis.
8. The system of claim 6 , further comprising:
determining initial staffing requirements based on the initial contact volume forecast;
wherein said revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises revising the staffing requirements based on a revised contact volume forecast.
9. The system of claim 6 ,
wherein said performing the initial contact volume forecast comprises performing an individual contact volume forecast for each of a plurality of contact channels, and
wherein said revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises revising the individual contact volume forecast for each of the plurality of contact channels.
10. A non-transitory computer-readable medium comprising program instructions to perform contact volume forecasting for a tax software support center, the program instructions executable to:
perform an initial contact volume forecast for a tax season using a time series model based on historical contact volume from previous tax seasons, wherein the tax season begins on a predetermined date for receipt of tax forms and the tax season ends on a tax deadline set by a tax authority; and
revise the initial contact volume forecast during the tax season, wherein revising the initial contact volume forecast comprises:
receiving information indicating contact volume data for a pre-determined historic time period;
determining a first predicted contact volume using the time series model for the pre-determined historic time period;
determining a second predicted contact volume using a trend-based model for the pre-determined historic time period based on a trend of receiving W-2 forms by taxpayers;
determining the trend-based model as predicting a most accurate contact volume for the pre-determined historic time period by at least comparing the first predicted contact volume, the second predicted contact volume, and information indicating the contact volume data for the pre-determined historic time period; and
revising the initial contact volume forecast based at least in part on a future contact volume predicted by the trend-based model.