Scientometric methods for identifying emerging technologies
Provided is a method of generating a scientometric model that tracks the emergence of an identified technology from initial discovery (via original scientific and conference literature), through critical discoveries (via original scientific, conference literature and patents), transitioning through Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and ultimately on to commercial application. During the period of innovation and technology transfer, the impact of scholarly works, patents and on-line web news sources are identified. As trends develop, currency of citations, collaboration indicators, and on-line news patterns are identified. The combinations of four distinct and separate searchable on-line networked sources (i.e., scholarly publications and citation, worldwide patents, news archives, and on-line mapping networks) are assembled to become one collective network (a dataset for analysis of relations). This established network becomes the basis from which to quickly analyze the temporal flow of activity (searchable events) for the example subject domain.
1. A method for determining a technology readiness level of a technology from one or more datasets using a computer having a processor preprogrammed with the steps comprising:
a) gathering raw data associated with the occurrence of the technology from sources and storing the raw data, over a time interval, into a distinct dataset for each source;
b) normalizing the raw data in each of the distinct datasets and creating normalized datasets;
c) identifying initial occurrences and peaks in the normalized datasets;
d) assigning a technology readiness level indicator based on the initial occurrences and the peaks in at least one of the normalized datasets.
2. The method as recited in claim 1 wherein the sources comprise Scholarly Data, Patent Data, Web News Data, and Business and Product Starts Data.
3. The method as recited in claim 2 wherein the assigning step d) uses one or more rules to assign a technology readiness level indicator to the technology.
4. The method as recited in claim 3 wherein the technology readiness level is the highest technology readiness level indicator of all of the technology readiness level indicators assigned in step d).
5. The method as recited in claim 2 wherein the assigning step d) uses one or more rules to assign a plurality of technology readiness level indicators for the technology to form a technology evolution model.
6. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 1 is assigned in the year when a first publication describing the technology appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source.
7. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 2 is assigned in the year when up to 20 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source.
8. The method as recited in claim 7 wherein TRL 2 is assigned in the year when up to 15 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source.
9. The method as recited in claim 7 wherein TRL 2 is assigned in the year when up to 10 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source.
10. The method as recited in claim 7 wherein TRL 2 is assigned in the year when up to 5 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source.
11. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 3 is assigned in the latest of the year when up to 20 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source, or the year when patent grants peak for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appears in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source, or the first year when up to 30 news data sources appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Web News Data Sources dataset.
12. The method as recited in claim 11 wherein TRL 3 is assigned in the latest of the year when up to 15 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source, or the year when patent grants peak for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appears in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source, or the first year when up to 30 news data sources appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Web News Data Sources dataset.
13. The method as recited in claim 11 wherein TRL 3 is assigned in the latest of the year when up to 10 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source, or the year when patent grants peak for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appears in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source, or the first year when up to 30 news data sources appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Web News Data Sources dataset.
14. The method as recited in claim 11 wherein TRL 3 is assigned in the latest of the year when up to 5 papers are published and the first year when a publication is cited by another author's publication appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Scholarly Data source, or the year when patent grants peak for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appears in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source, or the first year when up to 30 news data sources appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Web News Data Sources dataset.
15. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 4 is assigned in the first year when patent grants issue for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appear in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source.
16. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 5 is assigned in the year when the maximum number patent grants issue for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appears in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source.
17. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 6 is assigned in the year when the maximum number patent grants issue for the technology, irrespective of Assignee Name, appears in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source.
18. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 7 is assigned in the latest of either the first year when patent grants by technology and Assignee (Company) Name appear in the normalized dataset derived from Patent Data source, or the first year when an announcement of a product offering or product launch appears in the normalized dataset derived from The Web New Data Sources source, or the first year an announcement of a product offering or product launch appears in the normalized dataset derived from The Business/Product Starts dataset.
19. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 8 is assigned in the year when there is a first announcement of a product offering or of a product launch appears in the normalized dataset derived from the Business/Product Starts dataset.
20. The method as recited in claim 5 wherein TRL 9 is assigned in the year when up to 30 product offering or product launches appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Business/Product Starts dataset.
21. The method as recited in claim 20 wherein TRL 9 is assigned in the year when up to 20 product offering or product launches appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Business/Product Starts dataset.
22. The method as recited in claim 20 wherein TRL 9 is assigned in the year when up to 10 product offering or product launches appear in the normalized dataset derived from the Business/Product Starts dataset.